Weekend Edition: Australian housing on the road to $12 trillion
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What is the current total value of Australian residential real estate and its projected growth?
The value of Australian real estate has now reached $11.8 trillion. With prices gaining momentum over the last quarter, it means we could easily tip over $12 trillion by the end of the year. But it's not uniform growth, of course, and can investors still make strong capital returns, or do they need to start focusing a bit more on rental yields? And what everyone wants to know, of course, is where are the winners and losers in this continued Rise and rise of Australian real estate. That's this week. The morning call from NEB with Phil Dobby.
The weekend edition.
Well, according to the latest Cotality housing market data, prices gained the most in August since May last year, up naught point eight percent for the month, four point eight percent year on year. Melbourne, though, I think I've got this right, just up naught point three percent. It's the the the smaller capital's actually doing the best. Brisbane, well, not quite such a small capital these days, uh grew one point two percent for the month. Sydney managed naught point eight percent despite All those affordability questions. So where do Australian property prices go from here? How many times has that question being asked? Wouldn't it be fantastic to know the answer? But is affordability going to hold back growth?
How many times have we asked that question? Here's Eliza Owen, head of research at Cotality in Australia.
Which Australian cities are showing the strongest price growth this quarter?
Uh, we're still getting used to that name. It used to be Core Logic, of course. Eliza, great to have you back on again. So
Great. Thanks for having me.
The least affordable city, Sydney, is still growing faster than the average. Uh and we've seen property prices there uh what fifty percent or so in the last decade. So how how does that compare in the past and how does that compare with the rest of Australia? For Sydney specifically.
Yeah, it's amazing. So Sydney's home values have definitely had decades of doubling. Most recently, in the 10 years to 2022, Sydney home values virtually doubled. And then, as you say, there's been a little bit of a slowdown amid affordability constraints through to September 2025. Now they're up about 50% over the past decade. But But what we have seen in its stead is other capital cities that had more room to grow are now growing pretty rapidly over that ten year period. So uh namely Brisbane, Adelaide and um Perth is on the way too, as cities that have virtually doubled over the past decade. Aaron
Powell And there are many other world centers where we can say that. Like if we look at London or well, I know London hasn't, but if we look at New York or Paris or any any other cities which would be Areas where there's a population growth uh and perhaps a constraint on the amount of housing that's available, th th that that combined factor, which obviously is a big um part of why we're seeing such rapid growth. Are we seeing anywhere else in the world to that extent, doubling in ten years?
Yeah, there are definitely overseas property markets where values have doubled in the space of a 10-year period. So if you look at Canada's home values, for example, they saw a doubling in the 2000s, pretty much again in the 2010s. Uh US home values have pretty much doubled in the past decade. Uh, and we've seen a hundred and sixty percent increase in New Zealand's property market in the same period. So I think the big commonality there has been the macro trends associated with the pandemic, right? Record low interest rates. And in fact, historically, uh times like the GFC where you saw a structural decline in interest rates, the availability of credit has basically blown up those asset values. Um And then through COVID, there were other kinds of common factors like constraints in the construction industry, bottlenecks on materials and labor that restricted supply and exacerbated those increases.
A lot of catch up in migration in 2022 in wealthy and middle-income countries. So You know, a l a few commonalities there that have created similar periods of rapid increase. But ultimately Australia has had one of the largest increases over longer periods of time, say since the twenty first century.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the current total value of Australian residential real estate and its projected growth?
0:01–1:18
2
Which Australian cities are showing the strongest price growth this quarter?
1:18–5:31
3
Why is Sydney still outpacing the national average despite being the least affordable market?
5:31–10:00
4
How are affordability pressures influencing capital growth versus rental yield strategies?
10:00–14:36
5
What role do low interest rates and financing innovations play in today’s housing boom?
14:36–21:04
6
Are Australian gross rental yields rising, and how do they compare to historical levels?
21:04–27:06
7
Which regional markets (e.g., Darwin, Brisbane, Parramatta) are likely to lead growth in the next 12‑24 months?
27:06–27:52
8
What are the key take‑aways and predictions for Australian housing market trends going forward?
27:52–27:54