Weekend Edition: Germany: Not a great time to change government
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Why is Germany’s upcoming election considered a pivotal moment for Europe’s future?
Germany goes to the polls on Sunday. After that, we know Olaf Schultz will no longer be Chancellor. But who? A swing to the right with the CDU leading in the polls, but with nowhere near enough votes to form a government on their own and nipping at their heels the far-right AFD. So what can we expect when Germany votes this weekend? How big will the power shift in Europe's biggest country be? At a time when Europe needs to come. Come together, particularly if it has to become more self sufficient on defense. The morning call from NEB with Phil Dobby, the weekend edition. Well, Germany goes to the polls this weekend, so why is that so significant? Well, the German economy we know is not in a good shape.
Immigration is dominating the public discourse, but there's also the question about how Europe unites if it wants to build more self reliance on Defence and energy, which might all of a sudden become particularly important. Can that be done if Germany elects a government that doesn't want to go down that road, or even if it fails to elect a workable government that can actually make any meaningful decisions whatsoever? Dr. Simon Toubeau is Associate Professor of Politics and International Relations at Nottingham University. He's a renowned Europe watcher, and he's with us to talk about First of all, Simon, let's let's get to understand how this whole election process works this weekend. So my understanding they've got two votes.
One of them is like a a local constituency vote and then another one is a i is a party vote. But th they're voting for everyone who's still going into the same house though, aren't they?
Yes, that's right. So um the the the German electoral system is is quite uh unique. It's it's a mixed uh electoral system. Uh as you mentioned, there are there are two votes for a uh a constituency, and then there's a second vote which is a vote for a uh party list. And that is uh a uh party uh and for that the constituency is the the whole of the of Germany, the whole the whole territory. So it's like proportional representation. So it's a like a it it uses a a system of proportional representation for that. So the way in which the the two votes work Is is this. So the the second vote for the party list actually determines w w ha what proportion of seats a party is going to get.
How does Germany’s mixed‑member electoral system work and why does the second (party) vote matter most?
Uh so that's the ki the that's the kind of the more the
most crucial one if you like. The constituency votes uh still tied to parties as well though, presumably.
Yeah, so the constituency vote i i is tied to party because the the candidates obviously are standing uh as candidates for specific parties. So so that's a kind of a a personnel question. You know, the who who's which of the candidates then are going to become MPs. So that depends on on the constituency vote. The ch total share of seats that the party gets, that is determined uh by Their share of votes and the uh PR system uh that they use. And there's also uh in addition to that, there's a uh legal threshold uh for getting into the uh the Bundestag, into the parliament, which is five percent. So if if a party fails to m make it above five percent of the vote, it doesn't get any seats. And therefore th it's it's uh what what happens is that um uh
Uh yeah, it it doesn't it doesn't enter the parliament. So and so all of the seats are d are distributed among those political parties that do go above the five percent rate.
Okay, it does seem enormously complicated because I also read about things like overhangs and seat levelling. Uh but I don't think we want to go there. That's going to a level of detail. I think for us, all we need to know out of those two votes, it's the it's the second one really, isn't it? It's the party vote that counts. That's what we should be watching for on Sunday.
That's right. Yeah, because that will determine th th this is the the vote that determines how many uh seats a party is likely to get, which determines uh The type of coalitions which are going to form. Yes, it's it will it will be a coalition. But so for example, one one important fact is whether or not the Liberal Party, the FDP, manages to uh go above the legal threshold of five percent.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why is Germany’s upcoming election considered a pivotal moment for Europe’s future?
0:01–2:23
2
How does Germany’s mixed‑member electoral system work and why does the second (party) vote matter most?
2:23–4:55
3
What are the realistic coalition scenarios after the vote, and how could the FDP’s 5 % threshold affect them?
4:55–8:59
4
How will rising defence spending and EU budget rules shape Germany’s post‑election policy choices?
8:59–12:53
5
Could Eurobonds or a debt‑break adjustment help Germany fund defence without breaking fiscal rules?
12:53–16:13
6
How long might coalition talks take and what factors could delay the formation of a new government?
16:13–19:22
7
What economic reforms is the CDU proposing to revive growth while staying within the debt ceiling?
19:22–22:36
8
Which green‑technology and infrastructure initiatives are likely to receive EU backing under a new German government?
22:36–24:51