Weekend Edition - Where Australia sits in a Trumpian world
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How are President Trump's policies reshaping global trade and what does that mean for Australia?
He's not been president long, but Donald Trump has touched every corner of the world, from the Middle East to China and across Europe. Some of his plans are working. He'll likely get Europe to spend more on defence. The UK has already said they will. He's doing a lot to stop illegal immigration and cutting perceived waste in the public sector. But will he bring bang manufacturing jobs to the United States? And what does it all mean for Australia and our economy? That's this week. From NAB with Phil Dobby.
The weekend edition.
So we do have to talk about Donald. Donald Trump has only been in office for just forty days, and nobody can say he isn't making waves. Good or bad, obviously depends on your viewpoint. But what we're concerned about is what does it mean for the global economy and what does it particularly mean for Australia? So let's talk to Dr. John Kunkel, Senior Economics Advisor at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. So John, I can think of one word for For what has been achieved so far and that's uncertainty and obviously that is the way the president likes things, it's his negotiating tool. Uh but can that last five years? I mean already there's doubt about his tariff plans. I mean every time he talks about tariffs now, I mean the market's not sure whether to believe him or not.
Yeah, so look I I think that's right. I mean I've I wrote a piece sort of right after the election where I said unpredictability is a feature, not a bug of the Trump presidency. So it is it's part of his MO, it's the way he rolls and that um you know unpredictability is part of his negotiating tactic, if you like. But in terms of tariffs, I think yeah, look, the think the simplest way I think to think about it is that, you know, he likes tariffs because he sees them as a tool that he can personally wield to exert influence to secure deals. Um and look at some level that's probably right. He's got the the American market that he sees as the the point of leverage. Um but look I I think it's it's very unclear still.
I mean they've got a range of executive orders. Um, you know, I think there is an intent to, in their mind, restructure global trade relations. So it's not just discrete bits of leverage to claim victory and move on. I think it's more significant than that, um, clearly. I think there is a sort of an implicit desire to raise revenue. And then there's also, I think, if we step back, and it's not really a a Donald Trump thing, there is this deep, I think, American concern about deindustrialization and the rise of China. So in some sense, and I'm a you know, I'm a free trader, I was schooled in in David Ricardo at at the Australian National University and Australia did very well with opening up our economy.
But I think the reality is the rise of China has changed the thinking. Um it's sort of seen the Washington the old Washington consensus essentially die in Washington itself. And so, you know, I think tariffs are a tool, um and uh they're in part a tool to uh see how America equips itself for this new world. And some of that was obviously there with Joe Biden as well, um, you know, perhaps with a greater emphasis on industrial policy. But it's not just Donald Trump, but I think I think we're in for a wild ride on tariffs under President Trump.
Yeah.
Why does Trump view tariffs as a negotiating tool and how might they affect Australian industries?
But it is but i I mean we haven't seen a great deal of 'em so far. I mean I have to say we were recording this yesterday, so anything could have changed. But I mean we've had the the threat of uh Mexico and Canada coming back again. But the only place that we've seen TAF so far is o is obviously on China, ten percent, not not twenty five percent. Where steel is i is just around the corner. But as you say it's been a negotiating tool. We can't keep on using it as a negotiating tool if you don't actually Yeah.
I think that's right. I mean I think um as I said, I think there's an implicit revenue target that that they want to they want to achieve at some point as part of their broader budget tax cutting agenda.
And he said that, hasn't he?
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
How are President Trump's policies reshaping global trade and what does that mean for Australia?
0:01–3:28
2
Why does Trump view tariffs as a negotiating tool and how might they affect Australian industries?
3:28–7:09
3
Will US‑style GST on Australian exports create new trade barriers for Australia?
7:09–10:43
4
Is Australia likely to increase its defence budget in response to US and European pressure?
10:43–15:40
5
How can Australia leverage its defence relationship with the United States to boost domestic industry?
15:40–19:10
6
What impact will Trump's fiscal stance have on Australian interest rates and inflation?
19:10–23:05
7
What investment opportunities arise for Australia from US trade tensions under Trump?
23:05–27:05
8
What strategic policy should Australia adopt over the next four years in a Trump‑led world?
27:05–31:19