Will they, or won't they?
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What is the market outlook after President Trump's five‑day Iran deadline expires?
Friday in the United States is the deadline that President Trump set for Iran to accept a deal or face the consequences. Some believe those consequences will be US troops on the ground this weekend somewhere to help shipping through the Strait of Homeuse. But are markets pricing for that? Or are they expecting a long war or a backdown by the president? It's anyone's guess. But there is volatility in the markets, that's for sure, and right now it is very Risk off it's Friday. It's the twenty seventh of March twenty twenty-six. It's the morning call from Nav. Good morning. Well, we've seen sharp moves up in oil, five point two percent added to Brent, four and a half percent for WTI, Brent now a little below one hundred and eight dollars a barrel.
It has eased off a little in the last hour, but the trend today is definitely higher. The US dollar is up naught point three percent, the Aussie down naught point seven percent. It's now at sixty nine US cents. Shares are down one point six percent off the Nasdaq, one point one percent lower for the S P, one and a half percent off the Eurostocks fifty. And the DAX. And bond yields higher, up seven basis points for ten year treasuries, up to four point four percent, up eleven for German ten year Bundes, uh, up twelve for UK guilt yields, Aussie ten years finished at five basis points at five point oh one percent yesterday. This morning on futures though, more like five point one per cent, up another nine basis points.
Nabs Ray Atrill is here, so a big sense of risk. That five Five day deadline uh finishes today, Friday, US time. Uh so the the the fifteen points that the US has uh presented have been rejected. The uh Iranian suggestions are not acceptable either. We think Pakistan is the middle acting as the the negotiator, but it's not moving very far. So what happens next? That's the big question.
It is indeed. Yeah, good morning, Phil. But uh as you say, there's a uh you know whether or not talks are taking place at all, certainly from the Iran side, they're saying well the exchange of messages via a friendly intermediary, which we assume is Pakistan, doesn't constitute uh talks. And it's uh you know you'd have to say that sounds a little bit more truthful perhaps than um we've heard out of the mouth of the US presidents. You think they've
opened a WhatsApp group? That's a
Possibly, but I was just uh just thinking.
How are oil prices and currency markets reacting to the escalating Middle‑East tension?
So we've had a fifteen point peace plan from the US and we've had a a five point peace peace plan from um the Iranian side to uh to end the conflict. And I was just thinking if you drew a Venn diagram of the uh the US plan against the Iranian plan, I don't think there'd be any overlap whatsoever. So you know if nothing else it tells you that uh these two sides are are f are far apart. On the the positive side, if you want to call it that, um President Trump isn't sounding perhaps quite as adamant as he was about this uh the extended five day deadline. So if you recall on Sunday evening, um so before markets opened out on Monday morning, um you know he'd rescinded that forty eight hour ultimatum and and extended it for a new five days, which obviously means effectively running into the weekend before he obliterates
Iranian energy infrastructure, he said we'll see in response to a question about a possible uh extension. But um And let's remember that the obliteration of the energy infrastructure effectively is something I think that will only realistically be achieved by putting uh so called boots on the ground, most likely in in Karg Island, where they they have the facilities that are responsible for the distribution of of some ninety percent of Iran's oil. So I think that will still be the fear going into the weekend, um, given that it would obviously imply a very major
Markets behaving like that is gonna happen though, because I mean you'd be thinking oil would be spiking more, you'd be seeing uh defence stocks spiking, that's not happening. Uh I mean there's uh uh it looks like more like, you know, markets are saying, well, we accept that this thing's gonna be going on for a while.
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