Will US jobs numbers be revised down today?
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Will the US jobs data revision trigger a Fed reaction?
A revision to last year's jobs data for the United States comes out today, but that's for the year to march. So is all that a bit ancient history, or will the Fed and markets react if we realise the US labour market has been softer than we thought for longer than we thought? Plus a change of government for France, as was expected, and Japan reacts to their PM's resignation. And the NAB Business Survey today is Tuesday, it's the ninth of September 2025. It's the morning call from NAB. Morning. And on Japan, I like the line from the economist Phil Suttle, who said in his note this morning, Jack, Japan is becoming more difficult to manage than Manchester United. If you're a a soccer fan, if you're following English football, you know they lost to Grimsby Town the other week, with three l leagues below them.
Uh I think it was after the world's longest penalty shootout, I think twelve penalties aside. And they lost. Hit the crossbar. Anyway, that's ancient history. Uh what about those jobs numbers? Well, first of all, let me tell you, uh the sport. Morning, US stocks are back on the up in the US at the close. The Nasdaq is up half a percent, a quarter percent rise for the S P and the Dow. The US dollar is down a third of one percent on the DXY at 97.5. Uh but the Aussie is up more than that. It's climbed 0.6%, almost to sixty six US cents. The euro is up just 0.4 percent, 0.3% for the pound. Ten year treasuries are down three basis points, down to four point oh four percent. Ten year guilt. Are down four basis points to four point six percent, uh down four basis points for ten years in France as well, and down two in Germany.
How big is the expected downward revision to US payrolls?
Aussie ten years. We're down six basis points yesterday to four point two eight percent this morning, just one basis point lower than that on futures and oil, despite all those extra supplies coming from OPEC plus, oil is up naught point eight percent for WTI and one percent more for Brennan, which is up quite a bit over six. $66 a barrel now. Gold incidentally up 0.6% to $3,674. So still hovering very close to its all time high. It's not wanting to give up ground there. And Taylor Nugent is our man today. So Taylor, we haven't finished with jobs yet. We had payrolls last week. It was a week number. That was the first estimate for August. Today, though, is the big calibration day. So this is the day that
We they revise for the year based on tax records. So this is going to give us a more accurate number uh up to March twenty twenty five. Now when they did this last year there was a massive revision down and soon after that a fifty basis point cut for the Fed. Uh so I I mean that was a revision of eight hundred and eighteen thousand down. Some say this revision is going to be even bigger. So uh could we see the Fed doing the same thing again if If indeed that was why they did it last time.
Yeah, good good morning, Phil. Um look, I think the the key message of out of this it is a kind of a benchmarking exercise. We get the preliminary estimate um for what uh the adjustment to those more timely payrolls estimates will be to kind of match them up with this this more complete data.
What does the preliminary revision mean for monetary policy?
Um but you know the key point to emphasize is this is very much a historical revision. Um it's a preliminary estimate of the revisions that will go through for the year up to March. March 2025, and that will only be finalized early next year. But as you say, expectations are for a quite sizable downward revision to be revealed in the preliminary estimate, estimates ranging from kind of minus 500,000 to minus a million. So expectations already for a pretty sizable downward revision. I think in terms of what it means for the path of monetary policy, what it means for the outlook. Look, you know, I I wouldn't overplay it because again, what this is telling us is you know a more precision about where estimates of our payrolls growth were through the year to March.
Um and what is not revised by this is the household survey, and that is where we get the the unemployment rate from. So this doesn't have implications for the unemployment rate, just that pace of payrolls growth and what the Fed will be concerned about and you know we
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Will the US jobs data revision trigger a Fed reaction?
0:01–1:26
2
How big is the expected downward revision to US payrolls?
1:26–2:51
3
What does the preliminary revision mean for monetary policy?
2:51–5:26
4
How are European export trends affecting China and Germany?
5:26–8:00
5
What is the impact of France’s government collapse on markets?
8:00–10:23
6
How is Japan’s political turmoil influencing the yen and equity markets?
10:23–12:13
7
What does the NAB Business Survey reveal about Australian confidence?
12:13–14:24
8
What are the key take‑aways and outlook for the week ahead?
14:24–16:14