Will US optimism survive a record week for data?
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Why is this week considered a record‑breaking data week for the US economy?
This is a very busy week for US data. We've got jobs data, inflation data, spending data. We'll have a much clearer picture by the end of the week, how the US is doing. But meanwhile, optimism abounds, at least in US equities, despite all the AI spending concerns. And a win for Sanai Takeichi in Japan. Exit polls are showing she has a clear lead. So what are the consequences of that? It's Monday, it's the 9th of February. Twenty twenty six, it's the morning call from Nav. Good morning. Well, equities pushed much higher in the United States at the end of the week. On Friday, a two percent increase in the S and P, uh slightly more for the Nasdaq. The Dow hit a new high. Not there's normally a lot of interest in the Dow these days, but uh it there was on Friday, and shares higher in Europe.
But nowhere near to uh that extent. The ASX two hundred actually fell two percent on Friday, so maybe there's a bit of a correction on the way today. And US ten year treasury yields were three basis points high on Friday up to four point two one percent. Aussie ten years down three basis points on Friday to four point eight two percent, but obviously climbing a lot since last November when all this talk of the RBA pivot intensified, and the uh US dollar fell a little on Friday down to ninety seven. On the DXY, it's down 0.7% year to date. The Aussie up over 1% and back over 70 US cents. It's climbed over 5% so far this year. And commodities higher.
How did US equities rebound despite concerns over AI investment?
Brennrose three quarters of 1% on Friday up to 68 a barrel. Spot gold up 3.9%. Uh getting close to bridging that 5,000 mark again, still a way off its all-time high. And Bitcoin climbing back from the sharp 4%. Last week. It fell to sixty thousand dollars last week, US dollars, um, but that brought the buyers back in and it got back over seventy one thousand over the weekend. So there's been a lot of uh buying the dip opportunities lately. Here's NAB Sky Masters today. Well a bit of uh dip buying in US equities, it seems. I mean they have rebounded despite all the concerns last week about over investment in AI. Uh they're back up Up again.
Yes, good morning, Phil. Like a like a a v a good positive um overnight session on on Friday, sort of in contrast to what we saw earlier in the week. And you have as you said, a a very good session for US stocks. European stocks were up as well, but you saw a clear out performance um on the US indices. Uh and you know, you you said in your opening remark, um, you know, we often don't focus on the Dow Jones. But um we did on Friday because it it broke above fifty thousand for the first time or closed above fifty thousand. And from what I read, um It closed above 40,000 for the first time back in May 2024. So it's, you know, just under two years to to make that that next big, big break higher. Um 400 shares in the SP 500 closed higher.
What does the latest consumer sentiment survey reveal about US confidence?
Um, and you know, you had you had the Nasdaq higher, and and there was a clear um boost in or or move move higher in in chipmakers. So the Philadelphia Stock Exchange. Semiconductor index, which is a gauge for chipmakers, closed up a very strong five point six percent. So recovering just over the sixty percent of the losses that um were recorded post that anthropic announcement of their new automation tool. So yeah, very, very positive session for stocks on Friday night.
Yeah, well when you think about it, I mean obviously there was a concern about overinvestment. That was part of the reason why we started to see text uh uh shocks fall uh falling in particular um last week. But Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft this year collectively are gonna invest six hundred and fifty billion US dollars in AI. So that's about two percent of the GDP of the US. So I mean that's gotta be good for I mean the fact that that much money is being spent by those companies invested in t in the technology has got to be good for the broader economy, I guess.
Yeah, no, defin definitely. I mean, I think there are, you know, obviously can like um uncertainty around around the massive massive spend, but but at the end of the day it should be a positive thing for for the economy and Nvidia's
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why is this week considered a record‑breaking data week for the US economy?
0:01–1:23
2
How did US equities rebound despite concerns over AI investment?
1:23–2:51
3
What does the latest consumer sentiment survey reveal about US confidence?
2:51–4:51
4
How are rising US consumer credit and retail spending influencing market expectations?
4:51–6:40
5
What impact could the Fed’s neutral‑policy view have on future rate cuts?
6:40–8:52
6
How might Japan’s election results affect the Bank of Japan’s rate policy?
8:52–10:30
7
What are the expectations for Australian household spending and the ASX outlook?
10:30–12:30
8
Which upcoming US data releases could spark volatility in global markets this week?
12:30–14:13