Yields fall with Aussie jobs slide
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Why did Australian job numbers fall and how might this affect the RBA’s rate‑hike outlook?
Aussie job numbers fall enough to delay the prospect of a hike from the RBA, or do we just have to wait for more data? The aftermath of the Fed. How have markets taken it? The Fed is saying just one cut next year. Markets have priced in more, but is that changing? Tech shares are worried again about the size of AI investment and GDP numbers for the UK today. Could it be as gloomy as an English winter's day? It's Friday, it's the 12th. Eighth of December twenty twenty five, it's the morning call from Nab. Good morning. Well, a naught point six percent fall in the US dollar, uh down below ninety eight point two on the DXY, but the Aussie also down on that falling dollar, down to just below sixty six point seven US cents.
The Euro up half a percent, the Swiss franc up naught point eight percent. US tech stocks are mixed. We've got naught point three percent off the Nasdaq. It was more than that earlier, uh but materials and financials doing well, and the Dow is up one point two percent, hitting A record high over 48,700 in this session. Bond yields a little lower, down three basis points for 10-year treasuries in the US, at 4.12%, only down one or two basis points across Europe. Aussie 10 years. We're down nine basis points yesterday to 4.72%. Another couple of basis points lower than that this morning as well. Having seen it skyrocketing upwards, it's a bit of a change. And oil One point nine percent off WTI and Brent. Brent around sixty one a barrel.
Spot gold up one point two percent. Silver on Comics is up another five point three percent. So another record. In fact, since November the twenty first, so what's that? Just a little less than three weeks, it is up twenty seven percent. So here's Nab's Gavin Friend in London.
What impact did the Fed’s latest meeting have on global bond yields, especially in Australia?
Uh and we will talk about uh the follow on from the Fed yesterday because we really did Didn't uh I mean it was hot on the release of the p the podcast yesterday. But let's um look back yesterday to those Aussie employment numbers first of all. So actual number of people employed well down, which was quite a surprise, even if the unemployment rate managed to hold at four point three percent.
Mm. Morning Phil, good to see you. Um yeah, so I guess, you know, uh you might say for the RBA, welcome a bit of softer data for once, as you say, um a decline in uh employment and it was all in the full time jobs down fifty six thousand offset by uh thirty five thousand rise in part time jobs. The unemployment rate was unchanged at four point three. Uh that was in line with Nab's view, but um a tenth below uh the four point four consensus, so on the stronger side there really, for the for the for the you know, labour market overall. Um but this as the participation rate fell three tenths. Back on the softer side, the underemployment rate in the broader measure.
Yes.
Um those looking for more work. Um rose um four tenths to six point two percent. Um the caution here is of course this is from about a two decade low. It's still low, right? We we shouldn't uh overinterpret that. Now we know that um uh you know um i month to month um employment numbers are volatile. We say this every month. Month and recall last month um that there was a forty one thousand rise. So we're you know it's overs and unders, isn't it really? Um still trend employment is uh twenty-one thousand uh around about twenty-one thousand, that's marginally below what is needed to keep pace with you know a kind of a reasonable a reasonable pace of population growth. The good news is is private sector employment has picked up over about the last
Last year. And so that's kind of helped aggregate production to uh productivity to, which uh which for now, you know, doesn't really add to upside inflation risks to uh for the RBA via you know tightening labour markets. We think uh economic growth and thereby, you know, resulting hopefully labour it will follow on labour demand will be enough. to keep the uh the uh the the unemployment rate steady and uh as as population growth gradu gradually cools over the sort of medium to longer term.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why did Australian job numbers fall and how might this affect the RBA’s rate‑hike outlook?
0:01–1:43
2
What impact did the Fed’s latest meeting have on global bond yields, especially in Australia?
1:43–4:32
3
How are US dollar, Euro and Swiss franc movements influencing Aussie bond yields today?
4:32–6:47
4
What do the latest Australian employment figures reveal about full‑time vs part‑time trends?
6:47–9:44
5
How are Fed expectations of only one rate cut next year shaping market pricing?
9:44–12:28
6
What does the upcoming US non‑farm payroll data mean for Fed policy and market sentiment?
12:28–14:22
7
Why are tech stocks, especially Oracle, reacting to AI spending forecasts?
14:22–16:41
8
What are the key GDP and trade‑balance expectations for Australia, New Zealand and the UK this quarter?
16:41–16:54