You’re Not Fired (Yet)!
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Is Donald Trump really threatening to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell?
The man who made famous the phrase, you're fired, is he set to sack the chair of the Fed? He said as much, reportedly, to a group of lawmakers, but then denied it with a caveat. Uh markets have shrugged all of that off and the Fed isn't likely to be moving rates down this month. Data overnight didn't change that, but the UK inflation has picked up a little bit. They get their jobs data today. Could the Bank of England move rates down even if inflation isn't totally in check? And speaking of employment data, we get that for Oz today as well. It's Thursday, it's the 17th of July, 2025. It's the morning call from NAB. Good morning. Well, all those concerns over Powell uh took the US stock market into the red today, but they are bag in the green, firmly so at the close.
So the Dow finishing naught point five percent higher, naught point three percent added to the S P and a quarter percent on the Nasdaq. Falls in Europe though, one percent off the Eurostocks fifty. The US dollar is down today, losing about naught point three per cent on the DXY. It was a lot lower though earlier. The Aussie is up naught point two percent, sixty five and a quarter. quarter US cents. Uh the euro is up 0.3%. The Japanese yen up three quarters of one percent. And ten year treasury yields are lower, down three basis points to four point four five per cent. Similar falls in much of Europe. Aussie ten year yields finished at four point four percent yesterday.
Can the Bank of England cut rates despite rising UK inflation?
Just one basis point up from that now on futures. And very small moves in oil with Brent staying around where it was yesterday, sixty eight sixty a barrel and gold Spiked a bit today and is up naught point seven percent on yesterday, uh up twenty seven percent for the year to date. So Nabs Taylor Newton is with me from Melbourne, and it was a bit of excitement, wasn't it, last night and overnight. Mixed stories on whether President Trump is going to fire Jerome Powell. It was leaked to CNN that in a meeting of lawmakers he gestured to uh a document saying that this was a letter firing the Fed chair, uh but he He's been denying it since uh during the day in the United States, saying it was highly unlikely unless in his words he has to leave because of fraud.
So which is very possible, isn't it, if that's what he's uh leading towards. So uh huge uncertainty from all of this.
Yeah, good morning. That's uh yeah, some intraday volatility um on driven by that that reporting, um and some comments from Republican lawmakers and, you know, the the actual kind of substance that uh Trump did kind of poll uh Republican lawma lawmakers in a in a closed door meeting about whether he should he should fire power was was confirmed. But um the kind of that initial uh, you know, reporting headline that the the message was that a a firing could be could be imminent was was pushed back on by by Trump um as you mentioned there kind of you know he did say I don't rule out anything but I think it's highly unlikely but then added that unless he has to leave for fraud and it's possible there's fraud.
So you know again this this kind of looming threat hasn't hasn't gone anywhere but um that kind of that uh excitement I guess that you know something could could be could be imminent, uh faded reasonably quickly. Right. Right, but it didn't be calling it. It
did give us an idea though, didn't it? Of you know how markets were g were going to react. So w what did they do?
Yeah, so, you know, a lot of the initial moves have reversed. Um, and, you know, I think that there was some this kind of scale of the market reaction, maybe there there was some kind of reasonable skepticism about whether something was imminent. But I do think that kind of the the market reaction that we saw is is reasonably instructive and and not particularly surprising.
What were the major US stock‑index moves after the Fed‑firing rumors?
We kind of initially saw short end yields lower but but longer end yields higher. So quite a noticeable steepening in the in the curve. You had kind of ten year spreads to to two year yields up a around ten basis points, same thing with um thirty year spreads to um to five year yields.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Is Donald Trump really threatening to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell?
0:01–1:18
2
Can the Bank of England cut rates despite rising UK inflation?
1:18–3:27
3
What were the major US stock‑index moves after the Fed‑firing rumors?
3:27–5:02
4
Why did the US yield curve steepen during the market volatility?
5:02–7:17
5
What does the flat US Producer Price Index indicate for inflation trends?
7:17–8:41
6
What does the Beige Book reveal about US economic activity and employment?
8:41–10:32
7
What insights did Fed officials John Williams and Michelle Logan provide on future policy?
10:32–12:16
8
How are UK inflation and labour‑market data influencing BoE rate expectations?
12:16–13:12