Housing in 2026: Home Prices and Rates Are in Flux. Time to Make Your Move?
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
It's 2026. Do you think you'll be exploring any changes in your housing situation? If so, this episode is for you. Welcome to NerdWallet's Smart Money Podcast, where you send us your money questions and we answer them with the help of our genius nerds. I'm Sean Piles. Later this episode, we'll be taking a look at some of the predictions for the housing market this year. But first, our weekly money news roundup, where we break down the latest in the world of finance to help you be smarter with your money. Our news colleague, Anna Hilhoski, is here with us. Happy New Year, Anna.
Happy New Year, Sean. And I think it's pretty safe to say that we're all feeling reflective as the calendar turns over to 2026. So we're starting to think about what might be coming down the road in the now not so distant future. And the future is often shaped by the past. So I am hoping today that we can look briefly at some of the things that happened last year that may impact what we're going to see this year. and get some context for all of it. And there's no better person to help us do that than NerdWallet's senior economist and friend of the show, Elizabeth Renter. Elizabeth, happy new year to you, and thanks for starting the year with us.
Hey, thanks for having me, guys, and friend of the show. I really like that. I can't think of anywhere I'd rather be.
That's exactly what you are. So first off, I'm hoping you can talk a little bit about what a standout moment in the economy last year was for you, and what had the biggest economic ripple effects.
So that's a really tough question because, as we all know, 2025 was a crazy year when it came to impacts to the economy and potential impacts to the economy. But if I was to choose a single moment or event, it would sort of be the cluster that surrounded April and Liberation Day. So the announcement of the 10% universal tariffs, the reciprocal tariffs, and everything that happened relatedly to that after the fact, right? clawbacks of tariffs, changing policies. And the story is still unfolding, both how it impacts inflation and what the ultimate policies are going to be. Some of them are in the Supreme Court as we speak, those that were filed under the pretense of an economic emergency. So there's a lot going on with this topic, but it all started in April.
What was the biggest one for you, Ana?
Yeah, I mean, as you mentioned several times, tariffs. I think trade policy changes are most obvious and their effect on consumers, their effect on companies. You know, we saw a huge jump in business and consumer spending in the spring ahead of the tariffs going into effect. And now we're at a point where a lot of that inventory that was bought up in the spring is starting to wane. And we could end up seeing prices rise soon for all kinds of consumer goods. I also don't want to forget the effects of the government shutdown on federal workers and SNAP participants. It's not that far behind in my mind, not to mention how it impacted economic data collection and reports, as we saw and didn't see. And we could end up being headed for another, at least partial, shutdown at the end of this month.
But was there one economic moment in 2025 where you can look back and say, that's when things really changed?
Well, if you frame it by something that really changed in the year, I mean, again, there were multiple things, but it really felt like economic policy whiplash throughout the year. The one thing that stood out as far as change goes is when the Fed resumed cuts in September. So they held rates steady throughout the first half of the year. They were looking at the new administration coming in, the new potential policies and the impacts of those policies. And they thought holding steady was the way to go until September. That change, when they decided to cut again, really told me that they saw the risks to the labor market as rising relative to the risks to inflation. And that was significant.
Yeah, let's dig in a little bit more about what happened with the labor market last year.
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–4:20
2
What economic headlines from 2025 could shape mortgage rates and home prices in 2026?
4:20–7:25
3
How did tariffs and trade policy affect inflation and consumer prices last year?
7:25–16:49
4
What signs in the labor market should buyers watch for housing affordability changes?
16:49–33:12
Speakers
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