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Chapter 1: What were the results of the Makerfield by-election?
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Everyone can feel that the country isn't where it should be. Tonight, could, just could, be the turning point. From here on, I will give everything I have got to make it so, to ensure the name Maker Field is forever synonymous with bringing about the change this country needs, bringing back something we've lost, hope, hope for the future.
Andy Burnham winning the Makerfield by-election and overcoming that first hurdle on his potential path to become Prime Minister and replace Keir Starmer. And that speech was as much to the people of the country as it was to the people of Makerfield, who he'll now be representing in Parliament.
We reacted to that by-election victory, and it was quite a stunning victory by Andy Burnham as well, because he sort of exceeded people's expectations. on a live episode of Newscast, which was on various BBC platforms at seven o'clock this morning.
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Chapter 2: How did Andy Burnham's victory speech resonate with the public?
And it's got the usual morning after the by-election before kind of chaos energy. But here it is for you to listen to as a podcast episode of Newscast. Newscast.
Newscast from the BBC.
Humanity's next great voyage begins. We are in the midst of a rupture.
Nostalgia will not bring back the old order. Six seven. Six seven. Yeah.
Chapter 3: What does Burnham's win mean for Labour's leadership dynamics?
It's supposed to be me as a doctor. Daddy has also a special connotation. Ooh la la. Thinking about it like a panther helped.
Do we play music now or what do we do?
Hello, it's Adam in the newscast studio. It's very early on Friday morning and we've got the result from the Makerfield by-election. I say it's early, maybe for Chris Mason. In Makerfield, the constituency, it's late because he's been up all night. Hello, Chris.
Chapter 4: How did the panel analyze the significance of Burnham's victory?
Yes, Adam. Hello, morning, Adam. I am on a picnic table outside a budget hotel chain just next to the M6, just outside Ashton in Makerfield. So in the Makerfield constituency, which wakes up to a new MP and a familiar figure for folk round here, Andy Burnham, the, well, now former mayor of Greater Manchester. Andy Burnham returns as an MP. There will be a mayoral by-election.
And blimey, before we get to that, who on earth knows what's going to happen at Westminster?
Indeed. And just walking into the studio now, and maybe you will hear him or see him crossing over the camera, is Luke Trill from the polling company More In Common. He's sitting down.
Chapter 5: What local issues influenced the Makerfield by-election results?
A photo frame's been knocked over by some weird poltergeist because it wasn't by Luke. And while he's getting himself settled down and ready to analyse the results, we're also joined by Kevin Fitzpatrick, friend of Newscast, political reporter for BBC Radio Manchester. Morning slash evening slash day, Kevin.
How are you doing?
Very well, thank you. How are you?
Well, I've had a few too many coffees, I think. I'm looking a bit intense as I look at myself back in the picture.
And things are only going to get more intense. Kevin, do you want to give us the numbers first of all?
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Chapter 6: How does Burnham's campaign strategy reflect his political ambitions?
Yes, so in the end it was quite a comfortable victory for Andy Burnham. He got more than 24,000 votes, nearly 25, more than half of the total vote and he ended up 9,000 votes ahead of Reform. Everybody else were behind them. So while it was a two-horse race, as had been predicted throughout the contest, in the end Andy Burnham was way ahead and it wasn't quite as close as many people had thought.
Luke, you've settled down now. Let's get some analysis. Yeah, I mean, this is a better victory than many people had predicted for Andy Burnham in Makerfield, isn't it? Yeah, I mean, it's an absolutely seismic victory. I think, you know, Andy Burnham has defied electoral gravity here.
And one of the data points I'd use in comparison is just six weeks ago in the wards that make up Makerfield that voted in those local council elections, Reform got over 50% of the vote.
Chapter 7: What challenges does Keir Starmer face after Burnham's win?
They swept every single ward. Labour barely got a quarter of the vote. And yet, fast forward today, and that's totally inverted. You had a 23-point swing from Reform to Labour in just six weeks.
And Chris, people were saying, oh, we'll have to look at Andy Burnham's margin of victory because if the number of votes that Restore got plus Reform added together is potentially greater than what Andy Burnham achieved, then, oh, his whole argument about he can beat Reform and Restore Labour's fortunes would be called into question.
That's the theory that is consigned to the dustbin now, isn't it? Because his margin of victory was so big.
Yeah, it can sit in that file, quite a burgeoning file for folks like me, of hypothetical sophology that in the end didn't quite come to pass or become as significant as it might have done. I think as a sidebar to this by-election result, when you look at the results,
Restore Britain coming third is interesting and broadly speaking suggests that you know polls that had been done in the constituency and polling in a constituency is not easy because you're trying to get a sample size that is representative of a relatively small geographical area those polls did point to something of a support for Restore Britain and that played out in the result but as you say it wasn't a
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Chapter 8: What are the implications of Burnham's victory for future elections?
number that will be wildly sort of analysed in the coming hours, because even if you add restore to reform, they've still in total been miles behind Labour. And I think this is why the numbers here do matter in the conversation that is already getting underway as we have this
Newscast recording at seven o'clock in the morning and will continue throughout the day and throughout the weekend, which is that scale of victory. It was big, there's no doubt it was big. Couple of thoughts picking up from that. Thought number one is this.
So the central argument being made by Andy Burnham here in the last four or five weeks was that fighting a seat like this would allow them to road test an argument that said that Andy Burnham as a Labour figurehead was somebody who could beat Nigel Farage and reform. Now clearly, here,
Andy Burnham can say and no doubt will say at a victory rally in the coming hours that that's exactly what he can do because that is exactly what he has done there is though clearly a question as we get into the next stage of this Andy Burnham story to what extent is that transferable beyond Greater Manchester because there's no doubt Andy Burnham is popular in Greater Manchester he has a track record in this constituency and then across the
city region in several elections where he's performed very well. To what extent does that translate nationally? And then what do we hear from the Prime Minister in the next couple of hours? He'll be in front of the cameras, I think, this side of lunchtime. What language does he pick in congratulating Andy Burnham? Is there any sense of a dilution of his defiance that we've heard, I've heard,
directly in the two interviews I've done with Keir Starmer in the last week and he's articulated defiance to plenty of others and then how do Labour MPs respond how does the cabinet respond it's going to be fascinating few days.
And Chris we'll pick up on lots of those threads throughout this episode of Newscast which is being broadcast live on various platforms at the moment but also could be listened to as a podcast later on on Friday. Kevin I'm struck that a lot of the coverage of Andy Burnham at a national level on podcasts and news bulletins was when he was posed questions as a kind of proto prime minister.
What would you do about the fiscal rules? What would you do about the WASPI women? What would you do about oil and gas in the North Sea? But you were there in the streets talking to the voters, watching the campaign unfold as a classic by-election. What was Andy Burnham's recipe for success?
Well, right from the start, he was adamant that this was a locally focused by-election for him. He tried edging away, didn't he, from questions about, well, why would it be better than Keir Starmer as Prime Minister and what are his plans for the country more generally?
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