Next Up with Mark Halperin
The Truth About Trump's Second Term Foreign Policy Strategy, and the Charlie Kirk Void, with Michael Knowles, DeRosa and Bednar
22 Jan 2026
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Welcome in, everybody. Welcome to NextUp. I'm Mark Halperin, the editor-in-chief of the live interactive video platform Two-Way, the host of this ye olde program available on YouTube and as a podcast. And grateful to you all for tuning in to be a Nexter is to understand and appreciate what we try to do here, which is to tell you What's coming next up?
You've got good judgment if you like this show, my mom says, and I'm glad to have you here. First up today, next up will be my reported monologue. Trying to make sense of this week where there's this weird dichotomy where almost every political pundit and strategist will say President Trump needs to focus more on what's going on at home.
that part of what's ailing his poll numbers is over focus on foreign policy and national security. And yet the president spent much of this week in Davos dealing with a bunch of foreign policy issues. So I've talked to folks who've worked for past presidents who served two terms and talked to them about what causes a president
to spend so much of a second term focus on national security foreign policy. It's an interesting story about the psychology and the practical realities of being a second term American president. So I will bring my reporting to you there and eager to hear what you think about what I found.
And then later in the program after that, two strategists, Smarties, who will tell us what's going on in American politics, their perspective. Melissa DeRosa, Democratic strategist, and Mark Bednar, a Republican principal at Monument Advocacy. They will both be here.
And then Michael Knowles, back on the program, host of the Michael Knowles Show on The Daily Wire, is going to talk to us about his perspective on life, happiness, and other stuff. Anyway, excited to talk to all three of them, excited to do that business, but also excited Before they join us again in just a moment, my reported monologue. That's next up.
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Chapter 2: Why do second-term presidents focus on foreign policy?
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And if fraud does occur, their US based restoration team will spend up to $1 million to fix it. Don't be a victim. Protect your equity today. Go to HomeTitleLock.com, promo code Mark, or use the link below. All right. Welcome back. Next up, my reported monologue on why Donald Trump is spending so much time on national security. We saw it in vivid display this week.
Sharp relief as he went to Davos and dealt with lots of foreign policy issues on one trip, really three in a major way. Of course, a lot of focus on Greenland and what would happen there. But also Russia, Ukraine, and then also this new board of peace to deal with the Middle East, to deal with the rebuilding of Gaza. That's three pretty big foreign policy topics in just a couple of days.
But of course, it's not all he's done on foreign policy and national security of late.
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Chapter 3: What are Trump's recent foreign policy actions?
Venezuela, not just the Maduro action, but the... The follow on in dealing with the energy, the oil profits coming out of that country. Wall Street Journal reporting following up on what's been out there that with Venezuela being cut off from aiding Cuba, that the president's determined to get rid of the Cuban regime and going for regime change there. And then, of course, China, always an issue.
President's got summit coming up in the spring with Chairman Xi. And that's just some of the things he's done. The president talks all the time about the foreign conflicts that he's helped solve. This is a president who's spending a lot of time on foreign policy.
And that runs counter to the advice most Republican and independent political analysts are giving him that part of why his party is in danger for the midterms. is because he's spending so much time on foreign policy and we've seen in the last uh I don't know, at least 10 years, probably more. Really, you go back to Bill Clinton.
This notion of we need to be building firehouses in Peoria, not in Baghdad. We need to be spending America's money here at home. The doge cuts to USIAID and other programs dealing with overseas, horrifying to many people. But for a lot of Americans, it just doesn't make sense when there's so many challenges here at home that the United States is spending all this money around the world.
So politically, people say this is not wise. And in fact, on the trip to Davos, Susie Wiles, the White House chief of staff who was on the trip, she said to the traveling press pool, well, next week the president's going to Iowa to do an event related to energy and the economy that he'd be traveling literally, so they say, every week between now and the midterms domestically.
Can't get more symbolically domestic-focused than Iowa.
uh so clearly the white house is concerned about the optics of this and they don't want the american people to see him just focused overseas and every every week you've got analysts carl rove this week but you see you see this commentary every week saying look at the poll numbers look at the upcoming midterms look at the uh focus of the american people the president really
I can't afford politically to be seen not just neglecting American issues like housing. and energy and inflation in general, health care. But if he's not focused there and he is focused on this overseas stuff, that that's politically damaging to him and his party. So why is he doing it, right? Why is this president falling into what other smart political people say is a huge error, a huge trap?
I know why, because I've seen this movie before, and I've spent some time, probably now two and a half weeks, talking to people who've worked for other two-term presidents, and that means in the modern era, Reagan, Clinton, Bush, Obama, the second Bush, and asking them, is that what happened with you? And of course, you know that from the history books.
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Chapter 4: How does Trump's foreign policy strategy impact domestic politics?
People in the United States are much more isolationist, much more inclined to say, do we really need all these commitments around the world? We're not going to be the world's policemen. We're not going to want to put more American forces in other countries. The scarring
For many Americans of Afghanistan and Iraq, where efforts to get post Vietnam efforts to engage in nation building did not pan out, to say the least. And now you've got a president who very much says he doesn't want foreign entanglements. No, no forever wars. Right. But he's still doing it in the sense of still being engaged.
So here's a bit of the last four two term presidents before Donald Trump and how they talked about foreign policy and America's role in the world when they were second termers. OK, we start with Ronald Reagan. This is S1, please.
Today we live in a world in which America no longer enjoys preponderant power, but must lead by example and persuasion, a world of pressing new challenges to our economic prosperity, a world of new opportunities for peace and of new dangers. In such a world, more than ever, America needs strong and consistent leadership, and the strength and resilience of the presidency are vital.
The United States has the opportunity, and I would argue the solemn responsibility, to shape a more peaceful, prosperous, democratic world in the 21st century. In the six years since our nation was attacked, I wish I could report to you that the dangers have ended. They have not.
And so it remains the policy of this government to use every lawful and proper tool of intelligence, diplomacy, law enforcement, and military action to do our duty to find these enemies and to protect the American people.
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Chapter 5: Can Trump connect foreign policy to benefits for Americans?
I believe that the United States military can achieve any mission, that we are and must remain the strongest fighting force the world has ever known. I believe that we must never hesitate to act when necessary including unilaterally, when necessary, against any imminent threats to our people.
Four very different presidents, four very solemn guys there. But the through line is a very specific, very focused belief that America is indispensable in the world, that American safety and security and prosperity at home require a robust presence around the world. Now, circumstances have changed. As I said, attitudes have changed. Americans are far less inclined to engage in
these kinds of military diplomatic and economic adventures around the world. But the focus of all four of those guys in their second term was heavily towards foreign policy. President Reagan was dealing with the end of the Cold War, winding down the Cold War. So he was dealing a lot with the Soviet Union, transitioning into Russia, dealing with Gorbachev, dealing with nuclear weapons issues.
And of course, he also got embroiled in Iran-Contra, That scandal, but lots of foreign policy stuff. Bill Clinton was dealing with NATO expansion and how to manage the decline of Russia and the need for Europe to still have security. He also dealt with the Balkans and the Dayton Accords in Kosovo.
George W. Bush, of course, was dealing with the aftermath of 9-11 and dealing with Iraq, where the initial efforts to secure the country failed dramatically. But in his second term, he was dealing with trying to counter terrorism activities and surging troops into Iran, into Iraq, to try to end the conflict there. Barack Obama was dealing with Iran and the nuclear deal that he negotiated there.
A lot of issues with climate change, the Paris Climate Agreement, and also dealt with Cuba in his second term. Those guys all believed that foreign policy was important, but It's always important. And America's role from Reagan to now to Trump's second term always is important. So nobody's saying America doesn't have a role in the world.
But what causes a second term president, including before their midterm election, or when they're worried about making sure they're succeeded by someone of their own party, what causes them to focus here? Here are the reasons that people I talk to in both parties who serve presidents of both parties, here are the reasons they say presidents emphasize foreign policy, national security,
in many ways and many times over domestic policy in their second term. First is they know more. They know more about how to conduct foreign policy. Even if you're someone like a Ronald Reagan who'd been on the national stage for a year. Reagan was a governor, Clinton was a governor, Bush was a governor, Obama was a senator but hadn't been one for very long.
In your first term, you're focused on your domestic agenda and you don't really know how to do foreign policy all that well. But by your second term, you know it. And it's a more attractive thing to engage in because you know how to do it well. And you know more foreign leaders, right? You come in as a governor or as a new senator, like,
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Chapter 6: What is the significance of low-dollar donations in political campaigns?
It makes a big difference. It makes it more attractive to do foreign policy. You're more confident. Every one of these presidents, according to the folks I talked to,
had more confidence in part because they were more experienced in part because they knew more folks but they just understood how to be a great foreign policy president or an engaged foreign policy president and all that adds up to a capacity to um to feel like you can get stuff done and to some extent uh that's the that's the heart of this right domestic policy is hard
the second term you don't have the momentum people talk about the first hundred days now it's really in reality it's it's it's the whole first year plus if you look at the um if you look at the history of uh two-term presidents and one-term presidents you get a lot done in the first hundred days a lot done in the first year in a few months domestically but after that the honeymoon's over the first midterm comes around then you're running for re-election
Getting big stuff done domestically after that first year and a few months, very difficult. Look at what they accomplished in the domestic column in their second terms in all these cases. Now, there's not nothing. And it's not quite a self-fulfilling prophecy.
It's just if you got two buckets in your inbox, two inboxes on your desk, and one is filled with stuff that you look at and you say, I'm never going to get that done. Chances are long. And then the other box is filled with stuff and you say, well, I know how to get that stuff done. And it's easier. Don't need 60 votes in the Senate. Don't need input from a lot of people to develop policy.
Don't need to deal with the chaos of Congress. And in that other inbox, you just do it. And since Nixon through now, you've seen presidents take more and more power away from Congress on foreign policy. You're seeing it now in the most extreme case with Donald Trump, where you're not relying on Congress. You can launch missiles. You can send American forces around the world.
You can sign agreements. Got to get treaties ratified by the Senate, but presidents bypass that now by doing it without that. So one inbox is filled with complicated stuff that's difficult to do, to formulate a plan, to get it done, and requires a lot of input from a lot of people, including Congress. And the other inbox is stuff you just do. Another reason. They're looking for legacy.
And again, all these kind of fit together. First term presidents assume they're going to be second term presidents. So they say this is an eight year project. But when you get to the fifth year, you can see the end of the story. You know you don't need to run for election again.
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Chapter 7: How does the decline in grassroots donations affect future elections?
You can focus just on governing. And you know that history will be watching, history will be judging. And you want to start racking up victories. You want to start doing things that'll get you on Rushmore, doing things that'll be the lead in your Wikipedia and encyclopedia entry.
doing things where people say well who were the greatest presidents of all time well it was president x well what president x do you need a media list there of really big accomplishments and in years five six seven and eight those accomplishments are more likely to come from foreign policy and national security for the reasons i stated than they are from domestic
In foreign policy, again, folks told me presidents don't have rivals that can stop them. In domestic policy, you got the Congress and members of your own party and other parties. Within your government, you've got bureaucracies that you have to think about getting the policy process going. Foreign policy, you don't.
You can work with one or two or three or four advisors and just say, hey, let's call the prime minister of country X and let's try to make a deal on something. To watch Donald Trump this week in Davos was to see a guy where all the factors I just laid out are right there. They're just present. So for instance, the president formed this thing, this board of peace,
People are saying, although the White House plays it down, that this is meant to rival the United Nations. The United Nations, an anti-American bureaucratic place in the view of so many conservatives, where China and Russia, permanent members of the Security Council, can veto anything that America wants to do.
uh so the president's forming this board of peace uh to primarily deal with the middle east to deal with rebuilding gaza but again uh the u.n would normally play a role there the president's he's putting up a rival organization here's uh the president entering uh the first meeting of the board of peace made up of a lot of world leaders uh this is uh this is uh s4 please
Please welcome the Chairman of the Board of Peace, the President of the United States of America, Donald J. Trump.
So if you're listening to the podcast, there's a group of foreign leaders. They all happen to be men in suits, and they stand as the president of the United States. This is at Davos, enters, and they're paying homage to him. And this is a group of people whose countries would like to say they're not beholden to the United States and dependent on the United States, but to some extent they are.
So here's if this works. There's one female leader there. If this works, if the Board of Peace rebuilds Gaza under the auspices of Chairman Donald J. Trump, that's a historic accomplishment. I was struck this morning while I was watching coverage of the whole thing in Davos.
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Chapter 8: What are the implications of Charlie Kirk's influence on conservative politics?
And the president has always been a good talker. But you can see his sure footedness on all this stuff. He knows the leaders. He knows the issues. He knows the organizations. He knows what the traffic will bear. A second term president knows what the traffic will bear. And I remember watching I didn't cover I didn't cover Reagan day to day. I was there for the last year.
That's when I started my career there.
president reagan's last year but i covered clinton bush and obama and i can tell you the change in their level of confidence in talking about national security from term one to term two was pronounced was pronounced uh here's president uh uh trump in davos uh today uh getting a question about uh ukraine uh listen to this uh level of confidence that he has this is uh s3 please
what's your plan for ukraine sir what is your plan for ukraine what will you say to vladimir zelensky today as you know today i mean the president and we'll be discussing it we're meeting with president putin today or tomorrow and uh some people are going over and i think they're getting close a lot of people are being killed we got to get it done We don't get that done.
But you have failed so far, Mr. President.
I don't know if you hear the confidence in his voice. I do, because I remember how he answered questions on this stuff the first time. Same with Bush, same with Clinton, same with Obama. And the president's surrounded now on national security by Marco Rubio, by Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, by Steve Witkoff, one of his closest friends, by Susie Wiles, the White House chief of staff, others.
A team that he trusts, a team that he's in league with and sync with about executing on his foreign policy goals. And that doesn't mean he'll succeed just as Reagan and Clinton and Bush, 43, and Obama. They didn't necessarily succeed in foreign policy, including in those last four years. But they put a lot of focus there for the reasons I've said.
And yet there's going to be this pull, particularly in the next 10 months before the midterms. when there is going to be domestic travel but part of what um is true about um of the five two-termers Three of them were not the hardest workers in the world. They tell you they were, but Reagan, Obama, and Bush 43, you know, they like to watch TV.
They like to spend time with their families in the case of Bush and Obama. They didn't stay up till one in the morning, two in the morning. Clinton and Trump, they're night owls, and they'll work a long day. So What Trump will tell you, and one of his advisors said this to me is, sure, he's doing a lot on foreign policy, but he's doing a lot on domestic policy too.
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