OTB Football
FINAL ONE STANDING: "This is the greatest team in Europe...and they are booing them off!" | Liverpool's opportunity to bounce back | OFF THE BALL
30 Jan 2026
Chapter 1: What is the current state of the Premier League and Champions League?
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Yep, this is Final One Standing, your guide to the Premier League weekend. David and Shane with me today. Just look at the fixtures, lads. This is like the first really well-rounded, good Premier League weekend in a long time. It's like this Leeds-Arsenal game tomorrow is just absolutely intriguing to me with Leeds' home form. And then you have...
two pretty big fixtures of the way we look at it is it a top 8 now are we allowed to say top 8 big 8 yeah I think it's a top 8 now especially after 5 teams qualifying a top 8 in the Champions League during the week straight to the last 16 that's it and watching watching every watching Premier League teams struggle
with other English teams in a way that they don't with European teams which is still something that I think is we're struggling to get our head around but it is especially the it was the Burnley Spurs game last week that was such an eye-opener after they just took care of business against Dortmund and I was like I'm not really surprised that they almost lost to Burnley even
yeah it's funny because even the crap games on paper this week are actually half like even Wolves Bournemouth you'd probably look at and say that's the last one I'm going to look at but Wolves are in decent bit of form Bournemouth are good to watch or like Chelsea West Ham say which would be a nothing three o'clock Chelsea take care of business and suddenly West Ham are in some kind of form and are winning games yeah
Yeah, Villa, Brentford, two teams that like to play football the right way.
And Brentford have beaten Villa twice already this season. Although once it was on penalties, it's a draw really. Doesn't count, does it Mick? Doesn't count.
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Chapter 2: How are Liverpool and Newcastle performing ahead of their match?
They'll give us every chance they possibly can for the rest of time, every time Liverpool-Newcastle play. But it is funny how it does actually seep into our subconscious. There's no world in which we won't look forward to a Liverpool-Newcastle game.
The first one that we had this season was fantastic, wasn't it? Anthony Gordon, of course, going off. Yeah, brilliant, brilliant game. There's something about them that wherever they are in the league tables, whatever's happening in those clubs, yeah, something amazing happens. It's like, I mean, Liverpool were obviously coast. You look at the midweeks, like chalk and cheese, weren't they?
Obviously, Newcastle had it all on going away to obviously one of the best teams in Europe. Got a good result in the end. And Liverpool, you know, I mean, it looked like the Carabao players came for the shopping at Liverpool 1 rather than anything else, didn't it? Liverpool really eased to a big win there.
But the manager was saying last weekend, wasn't he, that they were like running on empty pretty much after losing to Bournemouth. So, you know, what's going to happen? I don't know which Liverpool...
to trust it I don't know what's going to happen they're 4-5 they're a touch of odds on Newcastle have got an awful record at Anfield in the league 1994 the last time they won there they were away from this season doesn't suggest anything yeah doesn't suggest anything that they were away from this season either so they're just under 3-1 which
you know i'd like to make an argument for it but i can't the draw is just under three to one and like i think because of the way you've said it's well rounded i've seemed to have gone through a lot of draws yeah i know he's sitting on the fences but it's like a lot of these games you can see finishing in draws i never understand why he's sitting that way draw picking a draw is sitting on the fence you've got three options and a draw is one of them it's one of those like i don't
it's harder to pick a draw sometimes isn't it there are less draws than wins and look if you pick a draw treble you know you're doing really well because you're usually getting a really nice price about if you manage to get two or three draws into a double or a treble yeah no one would be surprised to see this one being a score draw would they like 2-2 what do you think lads because I think Lee's right I would look at this and just go oh my head hurts because both of them doing well in Europe Newcastle
Newcastle, like even their home form last Sunday was just like, oh, you know, they were kind of well, they were kind of taking, Villa kind of took care of business against them in a way that you almost wouldn't expect at St. James' Park anybody to do. And it's just, they're having, they're having, I suppose, moments throughout the season. That's why they're not like,
ridiculously far Spurs down the league but generally their form has been poor and nowhere near the form of last season or three seasons ago but Liverpool I just don't trust them in any game at the moment David No you can't like Newcastle I think one of the big things for Newcastle this week and Eddie Howe speaking about this this morning is whether Bruno Goumerice is fifth Yeah
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Chapter 3: What are the implications of Liverpool's inconsistent form?
If they don't win tomorrow, they'll become the first Liverpool side to fail to win any of their opening six-league fixtures of a calendar year since 1954. So this Liverpool run of four draws and a loss last week, obviously, to Bournemouth has been crap. And they were on the most unconvincing, unbeaten run before that anyway. So this game is incredibly tough to call tomorrow night.
But you say that, if you listen to that in a vacuum, you would think... Liverpool won 6-0 during the week. They're on the back of a defeat and they haven't won at all this year. They're going to go for it on Saturday night. But we're not in a vacuum. And my sense of this game, and it's why I'd back up Lee's idea of a draw, is that both of these teams will be afraid.
This actually might not be the classic that we're sort of saying Liverpool versus Newcastle should be. Because I wonder are both teams just afraid of losing?
They're both so inconsistent and the fear factor of Anfield, it will come back, but it's not there currently. Obviously, notwithstanding the European performance during the week, but they just need to find something quick. You're even seeing a little bit of tetchiness from Arne Slott in his interviews as well.
He seems more off guard and unguarded with his comments that he kind of comes out with things that are clearly a little bit tetchy. Van Dijk, I mean, his form has just been...
I know he's kind of become a beacon to point all the negativity towards but he does kind of defend with aura alone at times and he gets a little bit of hate on social media for it and maybe rightly so because of performances recently, particularly against Bournemouth. But I don't know, they just need to find something. During the week they looked like a team with a little bit of shackles off.
Chiesa obviously celebrates the sixth goal and there's a feel-good factor around Anfield but... These are two teams that you can't trust. And at the end of the season, this could be a key, key result. And just on the draw thing, I guess sitting on the fence is a draw because the game starts as a draw. If both teams just tipped off and sat on the pitch for 90 minutes, it would finish in a draw.
So it is technically sitting on the fence.
The draw is really interesting without going too niche here. The draw is a really interesting concept in betting, as you guys have said, but also in play. I always find it, if you bet in play on football, the draw naturally gets shorter as the game goes on, if it is a draw. That doesn't mean to say it's going to be a draw. So that's the way the algorithm works.
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Chapter 4: What factors influence the outcome of the Liverpool vs. Newcastle game?
He's a touch of odds against five to four to score or assist in the match. So maybe not that much value in that one. But yeah, I'd be looking. I like him. Obviously, he's a great player. He's just kind of taking his time, isn't he? But you'd never be surprised to see him pop up and get a goal or an assist these days.
In a weekend when we have Liverpool, Newcastle and Spurs City, I suppose I'm surprised even at myself that Leeds and Arsenal is the game that I'm most looking forward to and most intrigued by. I know you're surrounded by the Leeds mafia up there. They always have them in your ear and their form is going to be very close to you. But I look at this game and I see the draw is 3-1 and Leeds are 24-5.
So I don't know what that makes a kind of a betting against Arsenal odds. But Leeds home form has been absolutely brilliant. And I don't think they're a pushover for anybody. They're also a team that like Forrest a few weeks ago, Arsenal won't be able to physically bully and wear down over the course of a game. They are significantly better than them quality wise. So that might come out.
But I just everything points to this just being a struggle for Arsenal tomorrow afternoon.
Yeah, I tend to agree. I mean, I don't know what it is about the football psyche. Non-Arsenal fans are just waiting for them to slip up, aren't they? Obviously, last weekend, there was kind of a bit of celebration just in the general football community that the title race was still alive.
Yeah, and given how good Leeds are, like you say, I think there'll be a fair few Leeds fans wanting to get on them at just under five to one. The draws, like you say, three to one, you can, there's a few games this weekend where I've been looking at putting, so you basically go Leeds and the draw. There's a few of those. I like Fulham and the draw at Man United as well.
And like I said, there were a few of those where you think Everton and the draw is a bigger price than Brighton to win, for instance. So there are a few of these kind of like, where you just take two results out of the three and, Look, if we whittle it down to, can Leeds score? I think the answer to that is yes. Arsenal are leaking goals.
We know Leeds, we think Leeds have scored in every game except one at Elland Road this season. If you look at the last six Premier League games for Arsenal, they've had two 0-0 draws against Forest and Liverpool. and conceded seven goals in the other four matches. They've only conceded 17 all season. So they are leaking goals. They're making mistakes at the back. Leeds, I think, can punish that.
So they can score. That's like tick one, both teams to score.
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Chapter 5: How does Newcastle's squad depth affect their chances against Liverpool?
I think Arsenal can score as well. That's both teams to score. So whichever way you go in it, I think you add both teams to score in. The obvious way to go would be Arsenal to win it and both teams scoring at 12 to five. But the score draw at nine to two, I do like it. Leeds, Look, Elland Road, everyone knows it's a cliche. It's a great place to play football.
It'll be rocking with Arsenal coming to town. They did beat them 5-0 at their place, remember, earlier in the season. I think this is where... If Arsenal get a good result here, if they get a win here, scruffy win, play them off the park, whatever, it's a huge, huge win for them, I think. If they slip up a bit here and City do beat Tottenham, then it's on.
I think then we start to test Arsenal's mettle, don't we?
Yeah, and they'll be Brentford, of course, but shall we... Can't forget about it. No, I forget about it. I'm only joking, believe it or not. But that's it, lads, isn't it? I know every week is like, if Arsenal win this, then there'll be no stopping them. But I think if you look at their fixtures, they had, you know,
that United game and then that Leeds game just never looked easy again it's just almost like at their best even if Mikel Arteta's amazing post you know Man United you know let's all feel happy about our lives showdown actually works and actually does kick them into a more confident arsenal this was always going to be a hard game for them it's like it just doesn't suit all their advantages I think are kind of somewhat mitigated well by Leeds and their physicality so it's always going to be a hard game but if they do win it
They can go on a run of five or six wins in a row here and wrap it up, I think. Yeah.
Every team looks at Leeds away at the start of the fixtures every year and pinpoints it as a tough game on paper.
But in this particular moment in time and the way they've been playing since kind of the start of December, it is...
If you're to make the argument for Arsenal, which seems a strange thing to say given they're top of the table, Keith Tracy, who is an Arsenal fan, very confident in off the ball breakfast this morning that Arsenal will get a result.
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Chapter 6: What betting insights can be drawn from the upcoming fixtures?
on 58 minutes, he sends four players on and he's got all this, go on attack. It's like, well, you haven't been doing that all the season. It felt like a bit of a, it felt like a, like a panic move. Oh, it was a panic move, wasn't it? Cause you know, like it felt like even more like, hang on. And you know, when you think about the, the atmosphere in the ground,
This is a team who are top of the table, apparently the best team in Europe, maybe the world, apparently, and the crowd's getting after them because they're losing to Manchester United early on in the game. It's like, what? You know, go and win the game. This is why this is a big test, isn't it? How do they bounce back? How do they bounce back?
Having played in midweek, even if it was a bit of an easy run out for them, go and attack Leeds.
and beat them you know you beat them 5-0 at your place go and beat them again like that it's going to be a fascinating I agree it's a fascinating game shame it's tucked away at 3 o'clock I don't know why this isn't a Sunday game Yeah because even when Mourinho scores the equaliser last week last weekend again from a set piece the crowd gets behind them for a couple of minutes but you still feel if United get one more chance here in possession they're going to score they're a better team by far Yeah the big thing for me in terms of
I think we're all quick to jump on it being a mentality issue with Arsenal and sometimes there isn't evidence to suggest that. The evidence to me is as soon as they went 1-0 up on Sunday... The goal that Manchester United equalised with was the third chance in three minutes. And they all came from absolute brain farts in defence.
And they finally put it away in the third time with the worst mistake of them all. And I'm like, that doesn't happen. You've just scored. I don't know whether that's because they start concentrating because they'd had the breakthrough or whether they were like, we have to win from here and it's even more pressure. But they completely collapsed. And they got back into the game and so on.
And it took a wonder strike to win it, fair enough. But I think that is absolute evidence for me that there's something real going on there, mindset-wise.
Yeah, and I think we can kind of question their mentality because they haven't actually won anything. Arteta won an FA Cup early on in his managerial reign.
you need to have some sort of process that how you're going to create chances and score goals and Arsenal never looked like scoring a goal from open play against Man United and the game against Liverpool where Liverpool came like off the back of some really kind of poor performance okay they weren't getting beat but Liverpool should have maybe won that game in the second half like Liverpool were the better team in that second half and you're at home against you know the current Premier League champions like this is a chance to put out a statement
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Chapter 7: What challenges do Arsenal face in their title race?
It's one of those weird records. It's like, how did that happen? I mean, it was when City were in a bit of a slump, obviously. They're 100-30 to win at home. You think Tottenham at home against any team at that sort of price, you want to kind of have a think about it, then I did have a think about it and that lasted about five seconds. I can't entertain that. I'm not sure.
City, a bit like Liverpool, I'm not sure I want to, I can trust them at an odds-on price. They're only seven to ten, so it's not hugely short. So you probably would be looking to, you know, stick them in an acker because I expect them to go and win. Again, the draw, I keep saying draw. Three to one, the draw. You can see goals in the game. Both teams are score here.
Haaland's got three in his last two at Tottenham. Tottenham,
it's a bit like we say about Arsenal you know the same as I said they have to win every game now if they want to win this Premier League title I think they have to win every game and that's got to be their aim to win every single game between now and the end of the season and then they'll overhaul Arsenal I think but that's obviously a huge undertaking to do that it's gold weekend by the way at William Hill so that means we've got epic boosts normally we have epic boosts on
on the key, you know, the TV games, if you like. Epic boost on every Premier League game. So I'm looking forward to seeing what this one is because we've had Haaland as the epic boost a few times this season. Obviously, it was landing time after time. The last few have kind of, obviously, it's kind of gone on, it's like mini drought. So I'm interested.
We haven't got them through from the trainers yet, but I'm interested to see what it is in this one. I'd probably rather it be goals of some description because I do see goals. I don't think Tottenham can keep Manchester City out. And I think Tottenham have got goals in them as well. Poor at home, as you guys said. So, yeah, you have to go with Man City in the end, don't you?
If Arsenal do slip up and they've drawn the game at Elland Road, for instance, City then, it becomes even more must-win, doesn't it? Because then you can really close that gap and start to exert some serious pressure on them. But, yeah...
again another intriguing game it should be straightforward I wish City were just a bit better and then it would make me feel more comfortable yeah because they haven't done it in their big games away from home so far this season before we go Lee just wanted to ask you about
West Ham and relegation because it's a very strange season. Everybody is winning. Leeds have won their last 16 games as far as I can see. They're still 16th in the league. It's just everybody's winning around them. But West Ham are on this run of form and you thought they were going to close it. But again, everybody's winning.
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Chapter 8: How is Manchester United's recent form impacting their season?
Forest could get dragged in. I wonder if West Ham can bridge that gap. Yeah. I think Forest have got enough points in them between now and the end of the season to stay above West Ham. West Ham are going to have to go some to overtake these teams, aren't they? Because what you're relying on is Forest or Leeds losing most of their games. They're not doing that. They won't do that.
They're capable, as Forest showed last weekend. Great result. I didn't expect it. I thought Brentford would beat them. It was my nap of the week, Brentford to beat Forrest at home. But look what Forrest, they did an absolute job on them, didn't they? The only interesting thing about West Ham is that the new guy who's gone in to support Nuno seems to be having a big impact at the club.
Like they say, he's a bit of a tyrant and he's kind of, but maybe he's instilled a bit more kind of, you know, like, you know, a bit more kind of, I don't know, like, like hardness in them or something a bit more, just giving them a bit more of something. It'd be fascinating if they close Forrest down. Wow. I mean, will Dyche survive with four managers in one season? It could be at Forrest.
But yeah, that result last week just kind of set the minds at rest. And I think... I'm probably in a minority here, but I think Liam Rossini has done an incredible job given all the kind of negativity around him. And I know his first few results were good, but the performances weren't. But let's be fair, I thought they were very good last weekend, albeit against a poor Palace team.
And then in midweek, I mean, they've gone to Napoli. No one's won there since December 2024 and gone and beaten Napoli. Napoli were at it. So, well, I think Chelsea beat West Ham with it in hand this weekend. So, yeah, it's going to be a fascinating one. Interestingly, like on final one standing, loads of people picked West Ham last weekend. And I was like, wow.
And obviously they got through because of it. So, yeah, they were a big pick last weekend. Maybe the tide is turning a little bit. There's a new 50k game launching on Saturday, by the way, I should mention. 3pm deadline.
So we've got a load of games underway and a few games that could be finished this weekend, including one of the 100,000 euro games from earlier in the season that has only got about 11 players left in it. But yeah, the new 50k game starts Saturday, 3pm. If anyone hasn't played or they've been knocked out,
or they've won one of them big things and they want to have another go then it's a brand new game to get involved with and this one anyone can have a go as well yeah I dipped my toe back in last week for I think it was a 20k game it was my first it was the first time I got over the post-traumatic stress disorder and not winning the 500 grand and I went back in knocked out the first round
Who did you have? I can't even remember. Have I had Brentford? I'm not sure. I know anyway, I realised early in the day, well, this isn't going to happen again. Lightning is not going to strike twice. I was due.
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