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Phillips on the Bichette's Blue Jays era conclusion, Tucker landing with the Dodgers and the Blue Jays' next steps
16 Jan 2026
Chapter 1: What does the Tucker signing mean for the Blue Jays?
Steve, yeah, so in terms of the Tucker signing, let's go there first. Is this a scenario where you look at it from a Blue Jay perspective that they could have matched, they should have matched, or was it just impossible to compete with the Dodgers?
Yeah, I don't think they had any chance of doing a long-term deal that would coax him out of this deal. And the other way to do it would have been to do an inappropriate ā bizarre, outrageous contract on a long-term basis.
Chapter 2: Could the Blue Jays have matched Tucker's contract with the Dodgers?
I mean, remember, he came out of the season last year when Vladdy signed his contract. Everybody said, oh, Kyle Tucker's going to get $400 million. Okay, that's 40 times 10. He's getting $60 million for four years on the front end of this. And so when you think about what's the way to maximize your value, Four years at $240 million.
Now, listen, the present value of it is $57 million because it's sums deferred. But even that, you know, he would have had to have gotten $450 million even to justify walking away from this short-term deal. And so I think it made sense for him to do it. He'll play this out, even though, you know, he's got opt-outs, but he'll play it out.
And then what he'll do is he'll try to do what Kyle Schwarber did at age 32, 33, turned it into a five-year, $150 million deal. And you tack that on to the 240, and, you know, you're at $390 million. And nobody was going to $400 million with him. And so I think it made a lot of sense for him to maximize his value. It made no sense for the Blue Jays to chase it.
And, you know, the amazing part was, you know, the Mets were in. I thought they were nuts doing $50 million a year for three years. Then it was $50 million for four. Then it was $55 million for four. And I'm thinking, what are they doing? And then it turns into $60 million. And remember, the Dodgers pay 110% tax. on that $57.1 million present value, he will cost them $119.9 million for 2026.
Just him. And so, like, it's absurd now. They can do it. They can afford it. They've got the revenues to justify what they're doing. Their business plan and their baseball plan is rolling in the same way, and it's very successful, but nobody else can do that. You have to let them walk at that point. There's nothing you can do, and you have to pivot to the next guy.
The problem is the pivot for the Blue Jays went to the Mets because they got crazy with him, and I think a knee-jerk, desperate reaction of signing Bo Bichette, who doesn't even fit for them, considering they traded for Marcus Simeon, and they talked about wanting to improve their defense, and so they're now going to take a square peg into a round hole, and Bichette tried to play him at third.
Then they're going to take the third baseman, Brett Beatty, and say, oh, we're going to move him to left field and pound another square peg into a round hole. So the Mets are playing reactive roster building, and it's really getting them in a hole.
Steve, if you were going to grade the offseason for the Jays with them losing out on Tucker and ultimately Bichette as well, does that affect the way you're going to summarize the Jays' offseason? Because there was talk about the Jays getting both of these two guys, and then they end up with none.
Yeah, so I didn't think they could afford both of them. Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce, and Tyler Rogers in the bullpen is a really big improvement on the pitching. You've got to get a healthy Barrios back, a full year of Trey Savage. Then on the offensive side, I mean, last year was a lost year for Anthony Santander.
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