Werier on the offer sheet landscape, Carlsson's future and the Kucherov offer sheet
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
But today we're talking hockey. Let's bring in Steve Warrier here on Overdrive. Mr. Warrier, great to see you. Thank you for doing this.
Hey, guys. How are you? Thanks for having me on.
It is our pleasure. So you heard Dave and I talking about our thoughts on Leo Carlson, whether or not the Ducks would ultimately match. We're a couple days away from the decision.
Will the Anaheim Ducks match the Flyers' offer sheet for Leo Carlsson?
Where are you leaning at this point?
I think they're going to match. I think it's an easy decision. I think it would have been an easy decision in any scenario, but I think there's a little wrinkle in the way this offer sheet's structured that when Henry Samueli and his advisors, including his hockey guys, take some time, are going to say, we have a couple outs here. And that's how the signing bonuses are set up. Now, you know, typically you front-load a contract or you front-load an offer sheet to deter the other team from matching, right? Because you're loading all this money up front. More money is tougher to match. But if the Ducks look at this closely, there's a huge signing bonus of $18 million in year one. There's a huge signing bonus on July 2, 2027.
They keep Carlson a year. It's an awesome player. They might keep him for all five anyway. But if they keep him for a year, not only do they have him for four and more, but they could flip him at a $1 million base salary with no trade protection in four more years. And if you look at what, like, Mikko Rantanen got at last year's deadline at age 29 on an expiring deal, he got...
How do the signing bonus structures create 'outs' for teams considering a match?
what, two firsts, two thirds, and Logan Stankoven, the Ducks could get a Kings or Anson for that. So I think they're going to match. I think they would have matched either way. But I think with this little structural wrinkle, if they have a little spite a year from now and say, hey, you know what, maybe we want to use our cap space elsewhere. I think they got a couple of different outs here.
So, Steve, if you're Mr. Sam Welly, the guy that's got to sign these checks... Big checks. ...to young Mr. Carlson, if indeed you're correct and they do end up matching, how are you perceiving this transaction in terms of the way you look at your hockey people, Pat Berbeek in particular, who's in charge... of the Anaheim Ducks on the executive level. Is this something that concerns you? Is this some sort of a managerial malpractice to allow it to get it this far? Or is this just the way the game is played and now you're in it?
Yeah, I know AK is a big tennis fan. I mean, I'd call it an unforced error, right? Like, it's tough when you're a negotiator, especially one who's really confident, who has a real, you know, definitive style like a Pat Verbeek. So sometimes just sit back and say, like, listen, I don't have the leverage here. And sometimes you've got to take a different line. And in this case, it sounds like they were negotiating. They were throwing about numbers. You know, they didn't see this coming, obviously. It puts them in a really tough spot. Probably puts Verbeek in a tough spot with his owner saying, you know, let's match and bite the bullet on 40 mil. Even a billionaire doesn't love that. Flipping it around, though, like, there's hockey and there's business.
And if you're the owner and even if you're the team, I think you sit back and say, listen, this is a great young player. Let's separate business from hockey. We're infinitely better with Leo Carlson in our room than outside of it, as would any team. But, like, you look at Anaheim Centre depth, you know, it's thin after him. I think that's the move they make. And then in terms of how Samuelia and the group sort of do a correction of errors and make sure something like this doesn't happen again. And it might, given who they have coming up the next two summers. Definitely a deep dive to that, too.
Steve Warrier is our guest. He's the former assistant GM with the Florida Panthers. And Steve, you've been on the station before. You told a story how you and your team back in the day were working on different offer sheets, including with Nikita Kucherov.
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–0:18
2
Will the Anaheim Ducks match the Flyers' offer sheet for Leo Carlsson?
0:18–1:17
3
How do the signing bonus structures create 'outs' for teams considering a match?
1:17–6:03
4
Does matching Leo Carlsson look like a managerial mistake for the Ducks' front office?
6:03–8:54
Speakers
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