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P1 with Matt and Tommy

Our 2026 Chinese GP predictions

11 Mar 2026

Transcription

Chapter 1: What predictions are made for the 2026 Chinese Grand Prix?

5.65 - 35.522 Matt

Hello everybody and welcome back to the P1 Podcast with Matt and Tommy. If you're listening on audio, it is dog season right now on the P1 Podcast. Bruno's on my lap. Frank is on Tommy's. And as a four, we're all going to put our predictions in. No, sadly not. No dog predictions content just yet. But the Chinese Grand Prix is here. The second round of the season. We've spoken a lot about...

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35.502 - 61.628 Matt

formula one and the current state of it bruno feels very strongly about it um how does frank feel frank is buzzing about the new season he loves it oh really it was one of those one of those sort of left field yeah you know just likes he's like yeah 120 overtakes that's what i want he loves that he he's a big fan of the uh the timing tower now just having one decimal place like that that's his biggest takeaway from the season

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61.777 - 72.679 Matt

Mate, I saw a reel that was about it, and it had a quarter of a million likes of people being triggered by it. And I am one of those people. Tommy on the other hand.

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72.699 - 73.1 Tommy

Yes, I'm not.

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73.4 - 77.489 Matt

Tommy's going to be campaigning for just seconds, like just 9, 10, 11 seconds.

77.509 - 79.633 Tommy

All you need is a point, whatever, like.

79.613 - 102.145 Matt

i get it i get why they've done that of all the things to complain about i'm not complaining about a decimal place let's not let's not trigger the audience immediately off the bat and straight into china um so a few things to talk about first and foremost foremost let's try and speak uh it's the first sprint weekend of 2026 the second race and we're straight into sprints

102.125 - 111.28 Matt

In a new set of regulations, surely nothing can go wrong there, Tommy. I mean, are you excited that we have one practice session and lots of competitive sessions?

112.121 - 137.984 Tommy

I think the good thing about the regulations, despite all the complaining, is that the unpredictability of it at this stage, yeah, while they're still working everything out, makes it unpredictable and unknown. So to then go into a session, a weekend, where there's even less practice and even longer straight for super clipping, will they even make it to that corner without running out of speed?

Chapter 2: How are the new sprint weekend regulations impacting teams?

375.398 - 392.501 Matt

and then take a long time to sort out whatever it might be. So McLaren not happy at all. I can imagine, although I've not seen other statements from the other customer teams of Mercedes, that they are also not too happy because McLaren are the best performing after Mercedes. And then there's a long way back to the other ones.

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392.962 - 413.005 Matt

Another piece of maybe potentially big news, although it's not actually happened yet, is that Formula One could already be changing the 2026 rules. I do love the quotes that are coming out about how they've had an ace up their sleeves this entire time. And we need to, you know, don't worry, guys.

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413.226 - 415.513 Tommy

Don't worry, we'll sort of see if we're clipping out immediately.

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416.945 - 441.715 Matt

Maybe. That is one way that they might try and fix superclipping. There are plenty of routes apparently they can go down, whether it's changing the way the energy is deployed. It could be trying to actually harness more energy out of the internal combustion engine as well. And The teams appear to be in unanimous agreement that they need a little bit more data before this happens.

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442.056 - 445.525 Matt

So China, there are no changes coming. Not a singular change.

445.545 - 447.049 Tommy

And even less practice and data.

447.45 - 455.166 Matt

Yes. And then we go to Japan. where these rules may well be implemented. That's the idea, that's the plan, isn't it?

455.206 - 476.179 Matt

And then we have, potentially, although Kimi Antonelli and Isaac Hajar have stirred the pot in terms of what's actually going on with Saudi and Bahrain, potentially, but it looks as though that may well be cancelled, which will give Formula One and the teams a much bigger window to potentially fix all these problems. Yes.

476.48 - 497.711 Tommy

Yeah, I think the sentiment from Formula One was they didn't want to do knee-jerk reactions after testing immediately and change everything. They kind of got away with one. I know, obviously, most people are unhappy, but they did kind of get away with it in the fact that we had the leaders swapping positions and things like that. They could kind of cover it.

Chapter 3: What is McLaren's reaction to Mercedes' engine instructions?

902.612 - 928.48 Matt

Okay. Everything's playing in my ears. Tommy, stop talking to me twice. Right. OK, so does Matt deserve good surprise point? And I said vote below with a thumbs up, which I don't think people understood because so many people just replied to it rather than just liking the two messages I put. So actually, this is very interesting. So no was 458 upvotes and yes was 371. However...

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928.46 - 950.987 Matt

Lucas Ha 9205 has helped me here and said, I had to scroll so far to find the yes, it seems rigged against Matt. Even though you did it yourself. Well, I mean, that's your own incompetence, really. Sorry, what do you mean incompetence? I... I messaged yes and no at the same time, and YouTube has screwed me, which is absolutely ridiculous.

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951.067 - 965.701 Matt

If I look at the Instagram, the top comment with 485 likes, how is Leclerc not a good surprise? He got P3. 308 upvotes. Yeah, Leclerc was definitely a good surprise. Wait, how was Leclerc not a good surprise? 221 votes.

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967.243 - 968.264 Tommy

Was it surprising?

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968.604 - 972.608 Matt

I think there's enough deliberation here that I deserve the point.

973.111 - 981.083 Tommy

Okay. Well, we'll give you a provisional point and it will go to the World Motorsport Council.

982.485 - 1001.835 Matt

Well, I love the fact that the current World Motorsport Council is you that just decides whether or not... Well, no, I was just putting it out there. You made the graphic. Did you or did you not discuss with me before that graphic went out as to whether I got the point? No, you did not, sir. This is absolutely rigged in the favour of the...

1001.815 - 1028.903 Matt

barely okay okay fine good good surprise you can have the driver that finished where he should have uh right you need to stop that right now uh we're gonna get very sassy indeed uh but i'm enjoying these arguments so okay so not in in fact that is three all okay three all fine which you should be very happy with enjoy the money like michael massing it um i look forward to your dad having a go at me again being like oh that always gets the cheap points

1028.883 - 1040.985 Matt

But there was a lot of people on my side. So let's now go, finally, to a good surprise. Tommy, who are you locking in? I am locking in Lewis Hamilton.

Chapter 4: How might F1 change regulations before the Japanese Grand Prix?

1480.607 - 1502.976 Tommy

Yeah, I think they are going to be mighty. That main straight, we saw what happened in Australia with how well George could power down those long straights. And there's a big old straight in China, which I think will benefit Mercedes. They've always been, and it's always been one of the better circuits anyway.

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1503.256 - 1514.775 Tommy

Back in the day, I remember Nico Rosberg getting his first win there and Shumi doing well before the retirement, which was heartbreaking. Don't you dare bring that up ever again.

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1514.895 - 1534.68 Matt

How dare you? That requires permission to talk about that. Thank you. so yeah come for us geez Bruno's decided to change entire position there as I am now getting into my pole position which is it was George Russell so now I need to change and now I'm in I'm in two minds I'm in logic mind

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1534.88 - 1555.626 Matt

And I'm in banter mind, but then also hope and delirium and dreaming because we've just spoken about the Macarena wing and I'm like, my God, maybe Ferrari will win it all. So my pole position, I can't be losing ground to Tommy. I need to put my best foot forward here. Kimi Antonelli. Yeah. All right. Kimi Antonelli is getting pole position. And look, we've spoken to be fair on YouTube.

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1555.646 - 1577.896 Matt

You may not have seen this, but over on our audio longer episodes, we spoke about at the top of the show about, um, Changes of rules potentially after Japan. Perhaps we will have to bring it in as well if Mercedes are going to be eight tenths clear every single qualifying session for the rest of the year where we're not allowed to utter their name in these predictions episodes. I don't know.

1578.196 - 1579.618 Matt

We'll see.

1579.598 - 1609.2 Matt

gone for Kimi Antonelli because why not there you go I genuinely don't think and I'd love to be wrong anyone's getting close on a Saturday to Mercedes so there you go George said actually that Ferrari bottled qualifying he kind of alluded to and I love the fact as well Charles Leclerc was trying not to bite there wasn't he you'd never see Charles Leclerc bite at anything but I could tell he was like he was so close to just saying like F you basically

1609.18 - 1635.293 Matt

Yeah, yeah, I genuinely felt that way. So, yeah, there you go. Right, let's move to the top three for the Sunday race. In third position, I am locking in Charles Leclerc. Another podium, another P1 at the start, drops down to third. And this is what we'll see every single race weekend till the end. Thank you.

1636.856 - 1665.235 Tommy

P3, I've gone for Lewis Hamilton. First podium for Ferrari, I think, could very much be on this weekend. I think, as I've said, good surprise. I think he's looking, I think he was very impressive, I think, in that first race. Lewis Hamilton evolved as he carved through the field and was much, I say much closer to Leclerc, very close to Leclerc, particularly at the end. So yeah, P3 Lewis.

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