Chapter 1: What insights does Dave Smith share about his recent interviews?
What's up, everybody? Welcome to a brand new episode of Part of the Problem. I am Dave Smith. He is Robbie the Fire Bernstein. I am tired, but I'm home and I've got a little stretch of being home now. So that I am very much enjoying or I should say looking forward to. I guess not really enjoying yet. I've only been home for a few hours.
uh but uh as you guys may have seen uh just dropped uh this morning brand new episode with tucker carlson with the great heroic tucker carlson um and please go check this one out i you know rob i you when you do the really long form podcasts it's
know it's hard you come out of it and you're almost like forget like what did i say i remember i said this at one point so me and tucker had uh breakfast and it was we had a two and a half hour breakfast uh just me and him just talking for just very interesting um and then we did about a two and a half hour podcast and there was you know like the ride from breakfast to there and then we talked for a little bit after it so it's like we talked for like six hours um
So I don't, you know, I'd have to watch it back. But my feeling coming out of it was like, I thought, I was like, that might be the best podcast I've ever done. Like, I just, it was just, I don't know. He's just such a pleasure to talk to. And I really got to say, man. If if Tucker Carlson is not genuine and really just believes everything he's saying, like, God damn, he has me fooled.
And he is like an Academy Award winning actor. I mean, I think this guy is like the realest guy out there. Anyway, please go check that out. I hope you guys enjoy it.
Cool. And not nearly as substantial, but check out Run Your Mouth. I did a new 1950 style parody newsreel. The fans seem to like it. And it's no Tucker Carlson appearance, but go check it out.
Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. Go check it out. But yeah, it's been, you know, it's been cool to get to do Joe Rogan and Tucker Carlson within a week of each other. It's it's I'm very kind of humbled by I don't know, maybe I'm using that word wrong. I hate when people use the word humbled to say they did, you know, a big thing, but it's a weird it's like, I'm very grateful.
that I'm so fortunate that I get to be in the situation to present my views on the biggest shows out there. And I think it's an, obviously I think it's an important time for some of these points to be made. So it was very cool, but man, it's been, it's been a string of traveling so much and sleeping in so many hotels. And it is just there. I'm very, you know, I love it.
It's thrilling and exciting and, and very rewarding. And, you know, I get paid way too much to do what I do and all this stuff, but man, it's really nice to be home and yeah, holidays coming up and stuff. I'm going to see a lot of family, got a lot of family coming over to the house this weekend.
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Chapter 2: What are the speculations around Trump's upcoming address to the nation?
So just, uh, really, um, um, I really need some recharge and batteries time, if you know what I mean. And sorry about the inconsistencies in the schedule, but it's just, it's next to impossible to do all this traveling and all these other shows and keep it the same, but we will be back to that and I'll do some makeup episodes and stuff because I'm...
I got a little bit like a few weeks to get my head above water before I we got a one nighter in Stanford coming up one night only April 11th. Two shows up there really looking forward to that great club. If you're if you're in the Connecticut area, the Stanford greater area, come on out to that Robbie's home turf.
And then we got our run in Chicago at the Rosemont Zanies and the Chicago Zanies, which are always for years now have always been like one of our best, most fun weekends of the year. So really looking forward to all that stuff. All right. Let's get into it.
You know, I got nothing else. We've plugged.
Well, people know. All right. So here's the big thing to get into. Right. And this is a little bit of what you know, it's the game that we're in and the way our show is done and the model we're under. So this episode, of course, subscribers are listening to it at 1 p.m. And please subscribe if you can at partoftheproblem.com.
And you get the bonus episode every week, our fourth episode of the week, plus some other perks. And it really helps support what we do. But so it comes out for them, but then it'll be up everywhere tonight. And tonight, the president is addressing the nation. So this show is us kind of speculating or previewing what that might be, or at least a little bit of the show will be that.
And then, of course, tomorrow we will, you know, we'll be able to respond to it. So I don't know, Rob. I really obviously I'm like praying that tonight Donald Trump gets up there and declares victory and says it's been tremendous. And we maybe we have a deal or maybe, you know, best case scenario, we have a deal. It's over. We're done with this. And then what?
So first you got to pray for that and then pray that the goddamn Iranians actually agree to that and stop. And then you got to pray that the Israelis actually go along with it and all this stuff. I don't expect that to be the speech tonight, if I'm being completely honest.
There's a few things and we'll get into some of them, but all of the indications that I've seen out of what Trump is saying, out of what Hegseth is saying, out of what Rubio is saying over the last 24 hours, doesn't seem to indicate that that's going to be what the speech is tonight. I really, really hope I'm wrong in my gut feeling about that.
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Chapter 3: How does Dave Smith analyze Trump's communication style?
this is donald trump we're talking about and if he was making that announcement he would do it at the beginning of the trading day not after the markets have closed for the day you know and i i do think that that is something that does really motivate donald trump and Maybe I'm wrong about that. And maybe for some other reason, he chose to announce that it's all over after the market's closed.
But I know, and I know, Rob, you've been paying attention to this. You've seen there's been several times already over the last six weeks or whatever it's been now where Donald Trump will say something very positive in the beginning of a trading day and then say after the markets have closed, oh, we're going to do all of this. We're going to escalate, blah, blah, blah.
I think he is obviously he's got to be hyper focused on that. So I don't know. I'm really hoping my instincts are wrong on this one, but I don't think that's the announcement we're going to get tonight.
I think we're going to see the world's greatest display of somebody talking out of both sides of their mouth. And we'll get a grand speech where we can all sit down and listen to what Donald Trump's mood is for the next five minutes. Now, the good indications are that...
We're ready to be done with NATO because they don't want to come to our back on reopening the Hormuz Strait, and we're realizing that we're the losers in this agreement. And also that Donald Trump is not declaring that one of the goals of the war was keeping the Hormuz Strait open and that he's more than comfortable walking away from it because it's not an us problem.
And so those would seem to be interesting indicators that Donald Trump is willing to declare victory and walk away.
uh the i think worst indicator that i've seen was that the uae was saying no we're gonna back you guys and we gotta get this done uh i thought that maybe all of the uh and i've been talking about this quite a bit that maybe the other oil partners in the region would rather just be paying uh iran and moving on and this was more of just an israel problem than it was a their them problem yeah uh but if the if our allies in the region are saying you can't leave us with this mess then i mean this might be one of the biggest
foreign policy blunders anyone's ever made of starting a war you didn't want to finish and just leaving a mess and alienating, you know, all of our oil partners.
Yeah, dude, this point that you've been making for weeks now is a really astute one and a very interesting thing to keep your eye on because, you know, there's like, You know what? People will say that we, you know, America lost the war in Vietnam or we lost the war in Afghanistan or we lost the war in Iraq or something like that. And and of course, when you say this, I mean.
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Chapter 4: What are the implications of Trump's foreign policy decisions?
is sitting here and saying, it's not really logistically possible for us to force open the Strait of Hormuz short of some type of ground invasion where we're gonna take huge losses and it'll cost trillions of dollars and we just can't do that. That's not a realistic option. Well, then why the hell would that be a realistic option for Singapore? You know what I'm saying?
Like what, why would anyone who's more dependent on the, you know, it just doesn't make any sense at all. And so in this situation, the, so then the rest of the world obviously isn't going, no, we think we can do what the U S military can't do. And if Iran does decide to go to say what they've been saying right now, which is that they go, no, we haven't closed the Strait of Hormuz.
We're saying anyone who gets our approval and trades in, you know, the currency that we choose, uh, can come through, the obvious answer for the rest of the world who is very dependent on that strait being opened is to go, okay, we'll go get permission from Iran and we'll trade in the currency that you ask us to trade in.
And if that is the case, if that is the result of this war, this is a different type of loss than even Vietnam or Afghanistan or Iraq.
we've never really you know what i'm saying like there's different ways to judge a win and a loss in these wars but i i cannot think of anything that compares to a loss like that we didn't not only was it just destruction with no benefit and the regime still standing and our we took a lot of damage and we lost uh soldiers and we we got a lot of our guys injured over there but you're telling me that then the economic global order has shifted wildly in favor of iran
I've this is that would really be something that I mean, I couldn't. Man, I'm hoping that that is something Trump's just willing to accept. But wow, Rob, would that be quite a development? And this is the thing you've been talking about now for a while.
It's a really not saying it's 100 percent that's going to happen, but it does seem to almost be like the most plausible scenario if we were to end right now. All right, guys, let's take a moment and thank one of our sponsors for today's show, which is Fast Growing Trees. I love this company and I'm thrilled that they're on board. I'm a big tree guy.
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Chapter 5: Why is Thomas Massey a significant figure in this discussion?
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And listen, this is not the most dignified way of putting this, and I probably need to experience more of the world and come to better views. But the best I can state it is I can't believe how bitchy the Donald Trump administration is being. And so Marco Rubio's comments on this was if the rest of the world thinks that they're just going to pay for access, this is illegal and unacceptable.
What makes it unacceptable if everyone else would prefer that versus the cost of going to war with Iran? That makes it acceptable. They've decided that between the two options of having to go fight Iran, it's easier just to pay them and get along. And, of course, that's not good for the United States, who also wants to walk away from the situation.
Yeah. And just to even start talking, it's just so funny. I mean, I was, you know, I was saying this years ago when, you know, in 2022, four years ago now, when Vladimir Putin first invaded Ukraine and every, you know, pundit and the whole Democrat and Republican establishment were all like, this is in violation of international law. And you're just like, yo, you got to be kidding me, dude.
Like, there's just no, you know, and by the way, yes, it clearly is. But the USA is really going to sit here and lecture other people about international law. Is Israel going to lecture people about international law? However you feel about it, like. It's just the biggest hypocrites in the fucking universe. And for Marco Rubio to say that, you're like, I'm sorry, I must have missed the part.
When did we get a U.N. security resolution to launch this war? I can't remember that part. Did I miss that story, Bob? Like, oh, yeah, no, that's right. We didn't.
We didn't get congressional approval.
yeah i mean like yeah i'm which i'm much more concerned with our own law i'm much more concerned with the constitution of our country but if you want to play the international law card i mean it's just it's too absurd um and again i mean there's it's just i think it's so like naked and transparent for everyone to see now i mean think about it rob the israelis the israelis have been arguing
for fucking 25 years that iran is developing an illegal secret nuclear weapons program like what it's the chutzpah rob you know like you're almost just like blown away by it you go like dude iran is a member or was a member in good standing of the non-proliferation treaty Israel is not. And we are.
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Chapter 6: What criticisms does Dave Smith have of Dan Bongino?
So like even even some, I think, Israeli like officials will like kind of threaten to use the weapons that they don't. technically admit to having. And so I don't know this whole thing. It's just a joke. It's all such a joke of a system. You know, there's no such thing as international law.
International law was always from its inception, a tool that could be used by the empire against the enemies of the empire. We can point to it and say Saddam Hussein violated international law. Therefore, we have the right to go overthrow that guy. Vladimir Putin violated international law, so we have the right to fucking jump in this war. But do we have to follow it? Well, no, that's not for us.
It's for them.
I think in terms of what will be the more entertaining lie of this evening's broadcast. So, you know, he has moved troops into the region. And I think it's almost like flipping a coin if he's pitching in the American people on.
I know that you guys think this is unpopular and gas prices are going up, but this was important because they were a threat and they were going to nuke us and we had to do this. I think that that might be the pitch.
The walk-back pitch of, hey, we're just moving on from this, though, is going to be funny because, you know, he's claimed more than once he's negotiating with someone but not telling us who he's negotiating with. And in this case, he said that Iran had the president agree to a ceasefire. I think I saw on Twitter, maybe it was even Scott Horton, that there is no current standing president.
And so it's unclear who on that side has agreed to a ceasefire. I also don't know that Iran is abiding by said ceasefire. So if he's going the, hey, we won and I'm negotiating with them pitch, that's almost going to be sillier and funny to see how funny to see how he presents and how Iran responds.
Yeah, also kind of in the background here is that Trump and others in his cabinet were bragging about how they destroyed 80% of Iran's missile capability, and then the military told the New York Times that it's closer to 30%, which, Rob, I'm no math whiz, but last I checked, that's a big fucking difference. That's a really, really big difference.
Also, the newest talking point I'm seeing is that we're ahead of schedule, which is a tough argument to make when you were saying this is going to be weeks, not months, and you're already over a month in. So does that mean you lied to us at first and you guys had a different timetable and a different schedule?
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Chapter 7: How do the hosts evaluate the current political landscape?
We literally, I mean, it is... quite plausible right now. And I think almost everyone, no matter what side you're on on this, even if you support this war, I think almost everyone knows on some level that it is totally plausible that Donald Trump announces that boots on the ground are going in tonight. or it's totally plausible that he announces it's over. It was tremendous. We won.
Like that's how far the, and also then with the Iranians, you know, they, they talk a big game and they have bluster and they always say things like this and they don't always follow through with what they say, but it does seem like we've hit a tipping point here. And that's a switch has been flipped. The incentive structure has been changed, which was always my first comment on this war.
And again, the fact that they're publicly saying like openly, like we do not want a ceasefire. We're not trying to stop. We want this to keep going because they understand even though they're losing more people, that's not really the game. This is an asymmetrical war. And in that context, they're winning the war.
And so they're not only winning the war, but putting themselves in a position where they may come out much more, um, in a much stronger international position than they went into it. Remember, this is a country that's really suffered under brutal sanctions for many, many years now.
And if they can come out of this where they flip that and now all these different countries essentially have to do business with them, this is going to drastically change the prospects for the future of the Iranian economy.
It does come to mind, though, that... this might be Iran's highest point of leverage. I can't say that for sure, but the big variable on the table is as a real oil shutdowns or slowdowns start taking place and other countries end up desperate or in a depression, like environments of them just going, all right, well, we're going to reopen that thing. And maybe you do have a more United front.
And also I just listen for as inept as our military seems to be in the amount of money that they're spending on, uh,
outdated gear while people are striking at us with the relatively cheap stuff i think as kyle anzalone pointed out on my show that our military is just a money laundering scheme and they're not actually built for warfare but i'm gonna guess that if this goes on another year we'll have very good anti-drone technology
And so I do wonder, for as much as Iran has clearly won the current leverage game that Donald Trump has conceded that they can even keep defense ballistic missiles, and now he's flirting with conceding with even their control of the Hormuz Strait, my guess is Iran does not actually want an escalating land war.
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Chapter 8: What conclusions do Dave Smith and Robbie Bernstein draw from their analysis?
But again, we will see.
The Donald Trump flip a coin speech.
Yeah, right. Exactly. Did you I don't know if you guys listening caught this, but I did think there was this one. Let's play the Rubio clip. It was the one on from Fox News Rubio. This is a country whose economy is in shambles. I thought this was a there's been a lot of things said recently, but this one I just thought was particularly rich. Let's take a listen.
Understand this, Iran, this is a country that has trouble coming up with drinking water. This is a country whose economy is in shambles. It's going to be even worse off after this operation.
This is a country whose people have been protesting in the streets because not just the lack of freedom, but the lack of economic opportunity, because they've taken all of their money, all the money they have, the little money they have because of sanctions, and they've invested all of it in sponsoring terrorism, in building long-range missiles, increasing the range of their missiles every year.
and building thousands of them, building these one-way attack drones that they're using against their neighbors. This is what they put their money towards. And this is what they were going to continue to do. They refused to negotiate on missiles. They refused to even negotiate on terrorism. And they refused to negotiate on enrichment.
understand that all right so uh leaving aside that last part which is an absolute lie that they refuse to negotiate on enrichment um that is just simply not true but there's a um isn't it something rob could you imagine having an american a republican war hawk actually say about another country well you know their economy is in shambles because look all they're investing in are missiles
They're just building missiles instead of, you know, investing that money in their economy or something like that. You're like, yeah. Do you know what Iran spends per year on defense, Rob? It's like, I think, under $10 billion. You know what we spend every year on missiles?
We blow through, and I mean this, we've blown through substantially more than Iran's entire military budget in the last five weeks. Right. So, yeah, maybe that is that isn't great for an economy when all of your resources are going toward things that blow other things up rather than, say, you know, schools and businesses and roads and airports or whatever. But I don't know your thoughts.
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