Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.
Chapter 1: What is discussed at the start of this section?
Adam, what's your point? The future looks bright. My handshake is better than anything I ever signed, right here.
You are a one of one? My son's right there.
I don't think I've ever said this before.
Folks, if you want to learn how to make money, sometimes you've got to pay attention to what's going on to these IPOs because there's a lot of money being made right now. We're going to talk about that today. We've got a bunch of smart guys here with us. We've got Pomp back here with us. I'm sure Sylvia is going to be with us today as well sometime.
Tom is here, and then we have, of course, national security guy Aseto here. So stories, IPO. We've got SpaceX, okay? That's IPO in. And, you know, I got a call. We talked to our Goldman folks about SpaceX. I think they're leading the round, if I'm not mistaken. Then you have a Sarah's bras, not Sarah's bras, Sarah bras. People have a hard time pronouncing that.
Tom's been coaching me this morning with my English St. Pat. It's not Cere bras. It's Sarah Braz. That's the proper way to announce it. You want to know the craziest thing? They are oversubscribed 20x. Imagine you're going saying we want to raise whatever, half a billion dollars, and they're like, yuck, that's a problem. We got $10 billion of people that want to invest with you.
What do you want to do? That's what's going on with them. I think they're up, if I'm not mistaken, 68% after day one, Tom. You can fact check me on this one here. It was huge. It was massive, yes.
It was bouncy, but it was huge.
OpenAI that's coming out saying we're revamping the chat. We're revamping what we're doing. Some people are saying, I don't know how much you're going to revamp because Claude's been beating the crap out of you, but maybe they are doing something. They're also going through...
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Chapter 2: Why is the IPO market happening now?
You saw videos about Knicks fans, guys outside asking questions. How much do you pay for your tickets? $60,000? $60,000? $20,000, $200,000, then Juan Soto's walking by. They ask him, I don't know if you saw this. I saw it. He said, ask the Knicks. He said, ask the Knicks. People are paying $20,000, $200,000. I know you're going to the game tonight. You were at the game.
Yeah, you got the game on Monday, so we'll see what's going to happen there. But World Cup, more hotels are selling out in Mexico and Canada than the U.S., and people are wondering why. Why is that? Is it a visa issue? Is it an economy issue? Is it not interest? There's some data that came out with Wall Street Journal a couple days ago saying Americans were not interested in soccer.
Right now, they are more than even MLB is what it's saying, a story that came out. So we'll see what that story could look like. Next, Kevin Warsh. who is replacing Powell, has announced that he wants to take it all the way down to 1%, but CPI came out, I think it's 4.2. And so there's some contradictions.
He's supposed to raise the rates, but 60% of the inflation is apparently tied to, you know, it's fuel-related and diesel and all this stuff. So we'll see. We'll get into that. Florida, if you don't live in Florida, listen, if you live in California, earmuffs. When we do this story, just don't listen to it.
If you're somebody who's very rich and you chose to live in New York, for whatever reason, you used to live in Florida, maybe you might move back to New York. Not that anybody here would ever do such a thing on this panel. Pomp would never do such a thing. The governor of Florida just announced Homestead $250,000 exemption. Hey, if you're here, we'll read the laws on how he's setting it up.
But what a great thing to do for recruiting, right? Can you imagine that? Like the stuff he's doing to get people to say, what the hell am I doing living in a blue state? Maybe I ought to move my family to Florida. We'll talk about that. Then you got Tom Brady does a commercial, which, by the way, what a phenomenal commercial. Funny, corny. People hated it. People loved it. But guess what?
They saw it. Everybody saw the good coconut. What is it? Good nut coconut? I don't want to say it. I don't want to. Who cares about the name? It just tastes. I thought it was a very good commercial. We'll talk about that in marketing. Chick-fil-A has something they're doing that I think it's worth us discussing.
They made a smart announcement, and it's all about solving the Harvard restaurant problem. We'll get into that. U.S. Teens. You know, there's a sleep issue with teens. And Brandon here is saying that's a psyop. They're trying to convince you to sleep because anybody that hit anything big ever wasn't a big sleeper. That's Brandon's. But you can argue that.
But Brandon, I think, is the youngest here out of all of us. And he's given that perspective. And we have to listen to see what these young people have to say. Right. Maybe they have a point. Bitcoin projected, they're saying it's going to 250,000 after the halving.
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Chapter 3: What are the implications of AI on coding jobs?
So, okay, let's start off with Sarah Bras. Sarah Bras stock jumps 18% as rollercoaster. First month of trading continues. Tom, we were talking about this earlier that you said they are oversubscribed by 20X. 20X oversubscribed. There's so much interest in this. that even after day one, 68%, I think the stock is up. And then we have OpenAI, we have Anthropic, we have SpaceX to go to.
So one question for you, Tom, before we get into these stories individually, and, Pomp, you as well, why is the IPO market happening now? Why didn't it happen last year? Why wasn't it the year before? Why is it in 2026?
Well, I think there's two things happening. The counterintuitive data point is go look at the number of IPOs. And I believe that the IPO total in 2021 was 121 of them. And it's a drop down 30, 40. And I think last year was I'm going to find the chart that I have on here. And so right now we're talking about that the IPO market is broken back open.
I believe the number is we've already had 28 IPOs this year, which is almost more than we had last year. And when we just look at the number of IPOs, and we're about to have what's called the summer of IPOs, which in the middle of May was kicked off by Cerebras coming out, and the Their IPO price, the price that all the insiders and the big institutions got, was $185, $185.
At the first minute of trading, it jumped out, I think it was $350. almost double. $370 would have been double. And then the intraday high was actually to X the price. So why did that happen? Because it was 20XO surprise. They had 20 times the interest in the IPO than they actually could serve.
And so all of those folks, a big chunk of them, some of the institutions step back because they don't want to be part of the pop and drop on day one. However, a lot of the retail people that wanted to get in, even high-end retail, They jumped right in. And that's what helps drives the price on day one. So that kicked it off. And we can see just yesterday they were up 18 percent.
And so they've settled, I think, in the 250, 260 range is where 225 today. And just two days ago, they were up at 250. And so, which is up above that 185 IPO price. So, so far, this is a success. And now we've got the big three, SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are coming out later in the fall because everybody wants to give SpaceX about 90 days to suck the oxygen out of the room.
By the way, just out of curiosity, and I'll come to you with the same question as well. If you were looking at these individual stocks and you're going to put a million dollars into it, okay, and you have access to it, say you're on the inside, you have a million bucks, how do you deploy the million dollars between these four companies, SpaceX, Cerebras, Anthropic, and OpenAI?
So... Since Sara Bras is out, I'll give you the three that are coming. The three that are coming, I'd put 50% of the dollars on Anthropic, and I'd put 25% each on SpaceX and OpenAI.
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Chapter 4: How does the conversation about Mr. Beast's potential IPO unfold?
So if you're buying an all-time high day, that means that the market has momentum and it's likely to continue. Things in motion stay in motion, right? True in financial markets, true in science as well. The second thing is now there's a study that just came out that shows a company that is at a billion-dollar valuation compared to a company that is at a $100 billion valuation.
The companies at a $100 billion valuation get to a trillion, the 10x, at a higher percentage than the companies that are only at a billion. So interesting. Hmm. So what does that mean? The advantage of scale, the advantage of momentum. Like if you're at 100 billion, it means that you've already gotten to that point. It's working, right? And so you're betting on the thing that is already working.
You start to compound. Think of Amazon, right? Amazon, Google, Facebook, all these companies continue to compound at these great things because they have an advantage that got them to that place in the first place. So second thing, now third thing that I think is really interesting is everyone always talks about would you buy, would you not?
But a lot of people don't talk about what is your time horizon? So if you're 80 years old and you need cash next month because you got no job and you need the cashflow, you probably shouldn't be buying any of these things, right? Because they are gonna be very volatile. But if you're a young person and you look at this, what you wanna be is you wanna be in the category creator.
SpaceX, use them as the example. They have a monopoly on the ability to launch. They have really the only scalable, repeatable, reusable rocket. And then what they've started to realize, which Elon is so good at, is they're starting to vertically integrate. So they say, okay, well, if we can get to space the cheapest, we could put a bunch of other people's stuff on our rockets.
But what if we put our own stuff? Oh, well, let's go launch satellites and we'll beam the internet down. So then you get Starlink. Then they say, well, what if we also launch the orbital data centers? And so they just keep eating into this value chain. Now, what I find very interesting is there was this famous slide in the IPO deck that showed the total addressable market.
And the markets are pretty big for space and orbital data centers, et cetera. And then they're like enterprise AI. And it was this like $28 trillion thing.
And the reason why that is important is because really what we're starting to realize, if you think of the Elon orbit, everything comes back to machine learning, artificial intelligence, the models, and the ability to use software and data to do things that no one else can do. And so what is Tesla? Tesla's an AI company. What is SpaceX now? SpaceX is really becoming an AI company. And he is...
living at the intersection of the hardware and AI, but ultimately it is the AI technology that everyone is betting on. And so the Cerebrus as an example, everyone is so worried about things being in a bubble. Go look at any part of the AI market. There is a significant demand compared with a constrained supply. So you have demand outstripping supply. You can't have a bubble.
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Chapter 5: What insights do creators like Mr. Beast and Logan Paul bring to the event?
You've got Mr. Beast. You know, you've got the Kevin O'Leary's of the world. There are so many great stories today. Like if a kid is watching this or somebody's parents watching this. By the way, one of the main reasons why I'm bringing Bartlett, Dan Martell and Logan Paul to the event at the vault is specifically for this reason. You want your kids to watch what they're doing.
You may say, I don't like Logan Paul. It doesn't matter. These guys built brands. Logan Paul's going to be a billionaire. Bartlett, the way he's going, he's going to be a billionaire. Dan Martha. These guys are building brands that are going to be multi-billion dollar brands through learning how to create content. The ability to learn how to communicate your message is so, so valuable today.
It's so valuable today to do that, and some are doing it at the highest level. So let me get to the next story. Next story I want to get into... is Kevin Warsh. Stories comes out about the fact that they want to see interest rates go as low as 1%.
Chapter 6: What are the implications of Trump's call for interest rate cuts?
CPI went to 4.2. The story just came out. What page is it on, Rob? Is it page 5, it says? But which one on page 5? Because I'm on page 5. Okay, there it is. Donald Trump piles pressure on Kevin Warsh with call for rate cut. And this is a Financial Times story, so let me get to it. Rob, is this that video?
Yes, I have two videos, one from Meet the Press where he talked about interest rates and then a second from Air Force One, but it's just audio.
Let's hear the Air Force One. Air Force One, go for it.
Chapter 7: How do inflation numbers affect public perception and voting behavior?
Given those job numbers, do you think the Fed should cut rates at its next meeting? And do you think new chair Kevin Warsh can convince the rest of the committee? I'd like to see lower interest rates because each point, think of this, is $600 billion. Okay?
So, you know.
Okay, there is no reason to raise interest rates. Trump told me to press, which is a longer clip, so I'll kind of just go through it, Rob. We built the country by doing great and having rates low. What they do is when they raise rates, they try and kill success. I don't want to kill success. We should actually lower rates. What was Trump's pick?
Trump talked about has called for the Fed's benchmark, currently in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, to be slashed to 1% or lower. The president repeatedly criticized... Jerome Powell as a moron and a numbskull for failing to cut rates quickly enough.
Tom, thoughts? So today, we'll tie a bow around all this, and Pomp will jump in on this rather quickly, I'm sure. So today's CPI comes out, Consumer Price Index. 4.2%, right in line with everyone's expectations. Everybody was right on that number. What's interesting was that core CPI, where you take out food and energy, 60% of the number was related to energy. So guess what?
It's the energy spike of a temporary shortage and interruption in the supply of oil, which becomes... Increased price of gasoline, which becomes diesel, increased cost in diesel fuel. And they say, well, food's up. Well, what's in the truck that's transporting those apples from the farm to the grocery store? Diesel fuel. So it affects everything.
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Chapter 8: What economic factors contribute to unrest in Belfast?
And so the whole point, there's the 2.9 and 4.2. This is a spike related to the war. And so I keep saying it. Last year, I took incredible heat and I turned out to be wrecked. correct. When I said Liberation Day, remember the phrase I would use? The tariffs are tactics to work with foreign trading partners, not permanent taxes. No, you're wrong. By definition, a tariff is a tax.
Trump doesn't want these things to be permanent. He wants to move the other guy to get a better trade deal. And it turned out that I was correct. Now then, here, temporary statistics around the supply of oil are showing up, and it's 60% of the CPI. So by definition, you know, this – you move – you use –
You carefully look at the word temporary and you don't react by raising rate based on temporary statistics, which are creating. Yes. Are these inflation numbers? Yes. But they're temporary. This is not something that's there. And this is not the Biden administration saying this is just transitory. Under the Biden administration, it was structural.
Right now, as soon as Hormuz is open, as soon as oil is flowing, you're going to see it's going to take weeks, then a month, and then all of a sudden the refineries are there, and then we're going to refill the SPI, Strategic Petroleum Reserve. All of that's going to come back. What you heard on Air Force One, she asked, do you think with these job numbers that it's time for a rate cut?
Because unemployment is what leads traditional textbook Fed moves to say, unemployment's way up. We need to cut rates so that businesses can get more money to build another factory and employ all these people that don't have jobs. And so this is why Kevin Warsh, people are saying he's in the middle. He's right in the middle between
A president that said, look, I think we need to cut rates, and I think that'll help businesses, and there are some job stats out there. And everybody else is saying, oh, it's inflation, inflation, inflation. You should raise rates. And I'm on the side that I've already just articulated how I feel about the inflation stats.
Pomp, I've spent a lot of time thinking about data and then talking to people. The number one takeaway I've had is that the people are right, the data's wrong. And what I mean by that is, if you go back At the end of last year, inflation was coming down. And I think most people, myself included, were like, this is a central banker or a politician's dream. Low inflation, high growth economy. Wow.
They're going to pull this off. Before the Iran thing happened, I think that pretty much everyone I knew in finance was kind of like, I can't believe they're pulling this off. If you went and you talked to people though, they don't care what your numbers are. They're saying my gas bill was high. My grocery bill is high. Rent is too high. I can't afford a home. This is crazy.
Everything is too expensive. And what I used to think is, oh, these people just don't know what the data says. Like the data is telling us that inflation is low. And then I started thinking about it. I said, it doesn't matter what the data says. It's what the people think. Because guess what? Midterms in November, they don't care what the number says.
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