Chapter 1: What key events are mentioned regarding Iran and the U.S.?
Did you ever think you would make it? I feel I'm supposed to take sweet victory. I know this life meant for me. Adam, what's your point? The future looks bright. A handshake is better than anything I ever signed, right here.
You are a one-on-one? My son's right there. I don't think I've ever said this before. global economy and markets. I love it. We're going to talk about that. Folks, we're going to talk about global economy and the markets today. We have an expert in the house, David Rosenberg, who has an article he writes every morning, Breakfast with Dave.
We got a lot of things to talk about, many things going on. I mean, I got these 11 stories I'm going through. It's like sometimes you want Mondays to be stacked with a lot of stories, but today's a Wednesday with a lot of stories that broke last time. Let me go through a couple of them for you. Number one, Just at 425 this morning, less than five hours ago, Three ships were hit.
Two of them were seized by Iran. One of them is a Panamanian ship. The other one is a Greek ship. And they've been seized by Iran. And apparently the third one, they're trying to figure out where it's from. They don't know yet. Maybe we'll break it when the story breaks and we'll share it with you as well. We've got to talk about that. Tariffs.
The president said a few things about tariffs, saying he will remember the companies that don't seek tariff refunds. And a lot of people are saying, wait a minute, what does that mean? People have some questions. We'll talk about it. Trump encourages companies not to seek tariff refunds. UPS and FedEx have began filing for tariffs refunds. A lot to talk about there. Tim Cook, moving on.
And I want to say Steve Jobs passed away in 06. Can you verify? No. Was it 11? I think so. 11, yeah. And so he's been on there. And when he passed away, Apple was worth $100 billion. Now it's worth a few trillion. And now they have a new CEO. So there's a lot of ruckus. Some people are excited. Some people are not. Personally, I like Tim Cook. I know a lot of people have some criticism on him.
But we'll talk about him. Tim Cook as the new CEO, Tim Cook leaving and the new CEO coming in, and the new CEO, you can't find a lot on him. You know, he sounds like a pretty solid guy, but we'll see. We'll talk about him as well. Virginia, lots going on with Virginia. It's a story that broke. Virginia voters approve Democrats' redistricting plan, giving the party a midterm election boost.
So we'll see what happens there. Next story is Trump confronts Xi. Apparently there's a mysterious gift that was sent to Iran in a cargo ship. And markets trying to find out what's in that gift. Was it a $100 gift card to Amazon? You know, was it like maybe, you know, some Chinese? I don't know what it is. Everybody's trying to find out. They're speculating. We won't speculate.
We will talk about it. Maybe we'll do a little bit of speculating. Kevin Warsh was out there at his, what do you call it, at the confirming hearing, right? Am I saying it correctly? And there was some couple fiery moments, and he said something. where, you know, he said, look, I'm going to do what I'm going to do.
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Chapter 2: How are tariffs affecting companies and the economy?
It was pretty intense. Newsworthy. It's good for TV. And so we'll talk about that jet fuel. A few stories about the jet fuel that's actually a real thing that's going on. Lufthansa, which I used to fly on a lot when I lived in Germany, Lufthansa planning to cancel 20,000 short-haul flights to save jet fuel. 20,000 short-haul flights. to save on jet fuel, and that's not just the only story.
United Airlines slashed in 2026 forecast as fuel costs surge, and that story leads to the next one, what a looming jet fuel shortage could mean for summer travel. Will people travel less? Will they travel more? Who knows? Andy Jassy, there's a clip that came out telling Gen Z that if you want to be successful, you have to pay your dues first. How dare he say something like that?
Isn't that offensive? Don't you find that a little bit offensive, David? Shouldn't they get it? Shouldn't they be entitled to just a $200,000 salary day one when they graduate? How dare a CEO of a multi-trillion dollar company who is super wealthy telling others you have to pay your dues first? Give me a flip and break. That's disrespectful.
And then at the same time, story comes out saying that Gen Z would prefer GLP-1 as benefits instead of PTO. And if you offer GLP-1 as benefits instead of PTO, we would like that. That would make us more attractive to want to work for a company. And so what does Amazon announce on the same exact day? That they officially are selling GLP on weight loss programs. Promising fast, convenient access.
This is a CNBC story. We'll get into that as well. And then I got one other one if we get to it. Who knows if we got the time at the end. At this point, if we have to cover all these stories, we're going to be here for about six hours. So brace for impact. So having said that, before we get into the podcast, I want to share something with you guys because a lot of people started asking about it.
And it's becoming more and more a topic that's coming up. We don't do any major sponsorships on the podcast. You won't see us doing a podcast and announcing seven sponsors. We haven't done that yet. We're talking to some big companies we'll entertain and have that. We have some things that we'll invest in, and if we do, we'll talk about it. There are certain companies I invest in.
I'll gladly talk about it. But when it comes down to the Vol Conference, if there's one thing that I can tell you, it's 12,000 people in one room this year in Las Vegas at the MGM Grand Arena. And a lot of business owners want to get in front of these qualified customers. So, Rob, I don't know if you have a pitch deck for go on that real quick if you could.
Go on that if you could and go to the sponsorship all the way at the top. Yeah, if you can click on that. It explains go a little bit lower. I don't know if the slides are there or not. Go a little bit lower, lower, lower, lower, lower. Keep going lower. Keep going, Lord. That one right there if you could. So if somebody on the title sponsor side, your logo would be on the MGM.
Go to the next slide if you could. So you can find out which of these you can have your small business in front of while the customers are coming through and taking a look at the event. Keep going, Rob. You could be on stage. There could be videos. Keep going, Rob. Just keep going every second. You could be on the app while people are going on there. A manual that's going to go to 12,000 folks.
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Chapter 3: What impact do flight cancellations have on the airline industry?
So what I think is going on is the president is doing what he always does. Well, maybe I will. Maybe I won't. This is what I think. Maybe I won't. I think this is literally a day by day ceasefire. He's trying to keep them unbalanced. And unfortunately, they said that Vance was pulled back. I guess he's not going to the next the previous public meeting. What did they say?
Previously, they had made a public statement about what the next negotiation would be. So that's the one where we can see them all at the table and we see the media talking about it. But there's things going on behind closed doors. I think Trump's trying to keep them off balance. I think he's trying to get a deal done. I think Witkoff is working in the background.
But the public, you know, everybody sits at the big, beautiful table and everything. That's not happening. Tomorrow, Thursday, Vance was pulled back. There you go. David, your thoughts? Well, the question is, who are the Americans talking to? Like, who's the Iranian delegation? And who's in charge in Iran right now? Because my sense is that it's not the clerics, it's the IRGC.
And they are definitely hardened. So, you know, my thoughts are this. I think the bombing campaign is over. The I think that Trump pays attention to the stock market. And I think he's paying attention to the public opinion polls. And I think he has to take note of the fact that his MAGA base is starting to deteriorate in terms of the support for the war. So I think he's looking for an off ramp.
And I think that we're just further in this age of disinformation. It's not just the Iranians, but it's also what we're hearing out of Truth Social. I mean, we were bombarded with no fewer than seven messages from his social media account last Friday. And next thing you know, the Dow is up 1,000 points. It's hard to know where this leads.
I think that I agree that I think Trump is looking for an off-ramp. We don't know what sort of deal. What sort of deal are we really expecting? Because the Iranian list of demands and the U.S. list of demands, there's no overlap. And, you know, as I go through this in my head, I'm there thinking that Trump, I don't think he can bomb anymore.
I think it's a classic case of Einstein's definition of insanity. Like, where's the bombing? What's it going to accomplish that hasn't accomplished? Right now, what he ran has... found out is that it has an economic engine that it can stranglehold the world through the strait. I think a lot of us already knew that because it's not the first time this has happened, but on this scale.
So you have a situation where, as you mentioned about the strikes by Iran on those ships in the strait, they're demonstrating that they're still in control. And the U.S. still has this blockade. But does this break the ceasefire by them attacking those three ships? I mean, if you're talking ceasefire... Well, that's really up to Trump, right? You would think that it would break the ceasefire.
You would think that Hezbollah, which wasn't mentioned, I think just sent a few rockets into northern Israel. Did that break the ceasefire? So this is almost... you know, very loose definitions. It's clear to me, firstly, that Trump wants an off-ramp. We just don't know who he's talking to, who's in charge in Iran, and what any deal is going to look like.
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Chapter 4: What are the implications of U.S.-China tensions on global markets?
And how do we walk away with... Iran not abandoning its nuclear ambitions. I don't really know how Donald Trump is going to wiggle his way out of this. I think in the end, what he wants to do is walk away and declare victory on his terms. And then the Iranians are going to declare victory on their terms. And my biggest concern is, do we just end up back where we were
with Barack Hussein Obama and the deal that he struck in 2015. Do we just end up right back there and that's all this damage? Are you speculating or you're thinking we're going to end up there? Well, I'm always scenario building. You know, there's... There's a wide range of outcomes, but you have to have a base case scenario. The thing is that Trump is under a lot of domestic political pressure.
I think he's coming under some pressure in his own party. We have the midterm elections, all these things that Iran doesn't have to worry about. And then we have to consider all along how we've come to this place. And This isn't like a war over land. This is a war over radical ideology and fanaticism. This is a different sort of war.
You know, when we had the Cold War with Russia, it wasn't really dealing with anybody who was irrational. Khrushchev was not irrational. Now, that wasn't religious ideology that you could argue that was more economic ideology. But... you were dealing at least with rational actors.
And this time around, you're dealing with irrational actors and you're dealing with a regime that has no value on human life, even the human life of their own population, as we've seen. So I think the template you want to look back to, and this is what I would advise the president if I was there, is just, you know, know what you're getting into here. Because from 1980 to 1988,
Iran and Iraq fought an eight-year war. Now, Saddam Hussein wanted to create a buffer. You could argue that was partly about land, but it was also about ideology, because it was right after the revolution. And Hussein was very concerned that this radical ideology was going to spread into Iraq. After year two of that war,
Saddam Hussein actually offered an olive branch to the Ayatollah to end the war, to call for a permanent truce. Iran walked away, and the war lasted another six years. Over 500,000 deaths. So that's what we're dealing with right now. So there's a wide range of outcomes. I think that what's obvious to me, what's obvious to me, I mean, this is now... You know, what is a deadline right now?
What's a deadline? Now the deadline is over and now it's basically, you know, there's no timeline attached. What does that tell us? What's ideal for you, in your opinion? Well, I'm, you know what, I'm pretty hardcore. You know, I'm in the John Bolton camp, okay? Really? Absolutely, because I think that, you know, you've got to finish what you started. What was the goal?
The problem I have is that President Trump says, well, we did achieve regime change. Well, that's a lot of information right there. He's going to say we actually got one of the things that we wanted, which was regime change, but we got a worse regime. And then he says, well, these are more reasonable people than we had before. Well, I don't really think so.
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Chapter 5: How do surplus labor and wage rates relate in different countries?
And if they have surplus labor, well, then it would stand to reason that their wage rates would be lower. Like in the United States, right now, because of the out-migration file, we don't have. We have an unemployment rate barely more than 4%. Are you going to come after Canada because the Canadian unemployment rate is 7%?
Would you think that Canada should not have reduced wage rates or pressures because there's more of a surplus of labour in Canada or anywhere else in the world relative to the United States? You can't have it both ways. You can't sit there and brag about, well, we have a very healthy, vibrant labour market and we have tight unemployment rates.
In which case, if that's true, you're going to have wage pressure in your economy. You can't have it both ways. You can't say we have the best labor market in the world and therefore our wage rates are going to be below our competitors. That makes no economic sense whatsoever. Well, let me ask you this. As a Canadian yourself, what do you think about Carney's relationship with China right now?
Well, I think that his relationship with China is intertwined with his relationship now really with the rest of the world. So I think Carney has almost given up on the United States as a viable partner. So he's partnering with whoever is going to want to do business with Canada. As a Canadian, do you see yourself as China as the number one enemy of Canada or no?
No.
I would rather that Carney does more to foster a positive relationship with the United States, you know, than going and cozying up to China. You know, because I think China is China's not a military enemy. China's not a military enemy of the United States either, but it's a massive economic adversary.
And if it's an economic adversary to your biggest trading partner, which is the United States, which is really the bread and butter for Canada's economy,
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Chapter 6: What implications does Mark Carney's relationship with China have for Canada?
it's a bit of a risk to go cozy up to China. But you see, this is the byproduct. You see, this is basically what I would have done going into this war with Iran. I wanted to cobble together. You see, what you want to do is get a global coalition, just like George H.W. Bush did. That was a global coalition against Saddam Hussein, you know, back in Gulf War I in 19... in 1990 and 91.
I would have put an immediate moratorium on the tariffs, okay, to just give a kiss on the cheek to your partners. Well, he didn't do that because tariffs are so important to him. But yes, look, I find a lot of Mark Carney's policies problematic. I think that's one of them right there. I would rather that he worked harder. I'll tell you the truth. I know the Europeans loved his speech in Davos.
I sort of like was thinking, because again, you read between the lines, do you really want to poke Donald Trump in the eyes like this? And of course he reacted. Now, I'm not saying that we have to go cap in hand and on our knees to the United States, but I just wish there was more effort. It's like in our business, the financial industry, the know your client rule.
The people that have most successfully dealt with Donald Trump, whether it's Scheinbaum in Mexico or it's Malani in Italy, although he's a little upset with her right now, but There's leaders out there that know how to treat Donald Trump. Tom, what are your thoughts on that? I just wish Canada would have done more in that direction. Well, let me do this while you're saying that.
And then, Tom, I'm going to come to you. Here's what Howard Lundnick, he had some choice words for Canada. Go ahead, Rob.
Time is on our side because the pressures on the U.S. are only going to increase over time. Basically, you guys are in political trouble. The longer they wait, the better a deal you're going to have to do.
Good for them. That is like the worst strategy I've ever heard.
They suck. Look, we are a $30 trillion economy, right? We are the consumer of the world, okay?
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Chapter 7: What are the allegations against the Southern Poverty Law Center?
Carney has a problem with us.
He gets on a plane and he goes to China. Does he think the Chinese economy is gonna buy his stuff? China is entirely an export-driven economy, right? So what do you do? He came back and said, oh, we'll take their electric cars. I mean...
Is this nuts? Okay. What do you think about what he's saying here, Tom? So I think there's a lot of perceptions that go out there back and forth. And David, I'm going to present some numbers here. And I think some of the things you said there, I kind of disagree with a little bit. There's a little perception going, I think. Just look at January. We have all the numbers for January.
Canada exported to the United States $38 billion worth of stuff and only imported $25 billion. So it was a net positive export for Canada, making stuff and sending them to us, of $13 billion. And because the U.S. auto, with the interest rates, it gently went down toward the end of last year.
Chapter 8: How does Andy Jassy's message to Gen Z reflect current job market trends?
The U.S. auto sales perked up a little bit. And GM makes a ton of money. of pickup trucks just right over the border from Detroit and Windsor. And so the auto exports to the U.S. were like up 24%. But watch this, Pat. What percent of Canadian exports to the USA today under Trump, Q1, arrive here duty-free? What percent? Probably 95%.
That's right, which means that this whole war that Carney is starting with Trump, 95% of what Canada exported here is duty-free. Trump tried to make a point.
He actually moderated a little bit, and Carney's running around like Trump is this great boogeyman stepping on everybody's feet when he's got a good deal going, and I think he just sold out his old economy going to get BYD to bring electric vehicles to...
to Canada and BYD was known to be putting predatory pricing all across the EU and to undermine Mercedes and Volkswagen, which makes a ton of things, and the Nissan conglomerate and BMW. They undermined everybody. They sat there, what was it, Bulgaria? Check me on this.
I think they have a, BYD had an import place or a final assembly in Bulgaria, and they were sending all of those EVs into Europe and just undercutting everybody's price. Does Carney think he's not going to get the same deal out of China, that they're not going to do that? My goodness. So I'm kind of shocked. I feel like he's bowing to political pressure.
Oh, it's fashionable to be anti-Trump, but he's got to look at the facts. It's a great trading partner, and he's sitting here with very, very few tariffs on things right now. Well, what do you disagree with? I think we're in total agreement, unless you said you agree with me. No, you said you were not supportive of the tariffs, of the way he was doing it.
And something you said is that he said since 1987— He's been for tariffs. The surplus is where other countries win more from doing business with us than we do. And so a lot of presidents have negotiated favorably on behalf of China, which, by the way, starting with Nixon.
Nixon is who built China because at that time everybody was worried about the power USSR was going to have and Soviet Union and all this other stuff. And then we said, hey, let's help these guys out. They were number 10 in GDP. I don't know what year they were. Pull up China GDP ranking in the world in 1970. OK, 1970, how they were doing. And today we know they're number two.
But what was China in 1970? Can you go to the ranking so we can see them ranked against others? Go to images. Rob, if you just go to images, there should be a ranking in 1970. Does it show it? What year is that? Yeah, so anyways, China was top ten. Now they're number two. We've helped China become who they are.
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