Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Carefully consider the investment materials before investing, including objectives, discharges, and expenses. This and other information can be found in the funds prospectus at GetVCX.com. This is a paid sponsorship. Today's number, 175. That's how many days OpenAI's Sora app lasted. 25 days fewer than Quibi. Ed, what did AI say after crossing the road? What? I have no fucking idea, Ed.
That's not that funny. Hold on. How does AI identify? How does AI present? How? If-then. That's not bad. That's not bad.
All right, bitch, you tell the joke now.
I do. Three days a week. You do a joke?
Oh, wait, that's right. I've watched the show. Those are jokes. Yeah, those are jokes. I thought those were clever British Princeton twists of phrase. Indubitably. My jokes are good. My jokes are good. And they've gotten better. That's because I spend hours late at night trying to figure out what to say.
Have you guys heard about the new AI robot that can take off all your clothes and then give you a whole new outfit? No. I've seen it change people. Thought it was going dirty, but it didn't. Yeah, no, it was good. Clean. I think I like the if-then. I think that's good. It's a good nerdy joke. It's a dad joke. It's like kind of slightly, maybe politically incorrect, but not really. It's perfect.
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Chapter 2: How are consumers experiencing the economy under the current administration?
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This and other information can be found in the funds prospectus at getvcx.com. This is a paid sponsorship. This is advertiser content brought to you by Virgin Atlantic Ed. A couple weeks back, I got you a birthday gift, not to pat myself on the back, but it was a pretty good one. It was indeed. You surprised me with Virgin Atlantic upper-class tickets to London. So tell us all about it.
It was pretty incredible. From the moment I entered that upper-class cabin, I have to tell you, I felt like a VIP. Anything I needed, a drink, snack, assistance with the seat. Flat seats. Flat seats. That's the key. Flat seats. Exactly. Had the four-course meal, got my champagne, very delicious, enjoyed the food. And the journey home? The journey home was great.
I went to the Virgin Atlantic LHR Clubhouse. That's the Heathrow Clubhouse. Heathrow Clubhouse was awesome. Got myself a coffee, headed over to the meditation pod that they call the Soma Dome. Kind of felt like a sort of spaceship where you relax and think nice thoughts. So I did that for a little bit.
Then we went over to The Wing, which are these acoustically sealed booths where you could do some work. You could even record a podcast. I didn't do that, but maybe I should have. It was a very enjoyable experience. So, Ed, the real question here is what are you planning to get me for my birthday? See the world differently with Virgin Atlantic. Flying should be more than just transport.
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We're back with Prof G Markets. A new bipartisan bill could shake up one of the fastest-growing corners of finance, prediction markets. Two senators introduced legislation that would ban sports-related betting on CFTC-regulated platforms such as Calci and Polymarket. It would also prohibit them from offering casino-style games in the future.
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Chapter 3: What economic indicators are showing a decline in consumer confidence?
And that's a useful thing. But you have to start drawing the lines and figuring out what is the category of each different thing. And once you do that, then you can start to reach some semblance of sensible regulation. But if you keep saying, oh, it's all too blurry, it's all gray zone, you're never going to get anywhere. There's two ends of this.
There's the end consumer, and then there's, I don't know, the B2B side. So Federal Reserve economists have said that calcium is better than professional economic indicators of predicting inflation and Fed fund rate decisions. This data has real value to media companies and analysts. you know, like ourselves. Kalshi has a perfect forecast record on Fed rate decisions. Perfect.
So far, they're batting 100% on Fed rate predictions. And also, it's not just macroeconomic data. Kalshi's earnings predictions are as accurate as Wall Street's. Now, the question is, all right, on the sports side, we don't care nor do we talk about what the odds are of the Rams winning the NFC playoffs, right? We don't care, that's not the business we're in.
Should it be more difficult for a 21-year-old to bet in Las Vegas or bet on a prediction market on a sporting event than it is to go to Vegas or a Native American reservation and bet on sports there.
I mean, why are these guys, and maybe they're just being subject to the same things, but it strikes me, I struggle with the line between infantilizing people and also recognizing there's real potential for harm here. And I imagine that's what the regulators are struggling with. But when you were in Vegas, you could bet on sports, right? Oh, yeah, for sure. So what's the argument?
I'll just strawman this. What's the argument, or steelman, what's the argument for why you shouldn't be able to do that on the predictions markets? I think you should, but it should be regulated like gambling. I mean, that's basically it. If it's gambling, regulate it like gambling. So, I mean, I think the real problem for these companies is the workaround that is beneficial is that...
if you're regulated not like gambling and you're regulated like options, which is what the current laws are, then you're not subject to any gambling regulations, which means that you can operate in states in which sports betting is illegal. So that's a problem. That's a fair point. So for me, it's just like, okay, the stuff that's gambling... regulate that like gambling.
You shouldn't be trading sports events contracts in states in which they've decided that sports gambling is illegal. That shouldn't be happening. But in states where it is legal, let them have it. Another question, and you're betting on the Green Bay Packers, right? You're betting against someone who thinks they're going to lose and you think they're going to win. Zero-day options.
I'm betting Apple stock's going to go up. You're betting it's going to go down. You're writing the contract. I'm buying it. Is one more or less gambling than the other? Yeah, I believe that the sports gambling is more gambling than the other. I think the zero-day option makes a case. It's pretty close to gambling.
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