What Wall Street Got Wrong About Iran
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Welcome to Profiteer Markets.
I'm Ed Elson. It is July 9th. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The S&P and the Dow fell as military conflict flared up in Iran. More on that in a second. Meanwhile, chip stocks pulled the Nasdaq into the green. Brent crude climbed. The yield on 10-year treasuries rose as inflation fears returned. The odds of a rate hike before year-end on calcium rose to 56%. And finally, SpaceX stock fell again, dropping below its IPO opening price of $150 a share. OK, what's happening? The fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran has collapsed. On Tuesday, Iran attacked three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, according to US officials. In response, the US struck more than 80 targets along Iran's coast and revoked a sanctions waiver allowing for the sale of Iranian oil.
Iran retaliated with strikes on US military bases in the region. It's been just 22 days since the Memorandum of Understanding was signed. Yesterday, President Trump said he believes the ceasefire is over, and the U.S. launched another round of strikes. Brent crude soared over 7% to nearly $80 a barrel, its highest level in over two weeks. Joining us... To discuss these developments in Iran, we are speaking with Brian Katoulis, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. Brian, thanks for joining us on the show. I'd love to start with a clip of the president. This was kind of the moment where everyone realized, OK, maybe we're back to square one. Let's play this clip and see what you think.
Mr. President, is the ceasefire over? Is the ceasefire done? Is the MOU dead?
It's a very interesting question. To me, I think it's over. I don't want to deal with them anymore. They're scum. You know what scum is? They're scum. They're sick people. They're led by sick people. And they're vicious, violent people. And if they had a nuclear weapon, they'd use it. As far as I'm concerned, it's over.
What do those comments mean for the world, the global economy, the U.S. economy, all of us?
at least for the next eight to 12 hours, it means buckle up. But if you see Trump, President Trump's record over the last four or five months, it could be 180 degree opposite of what he said. And if you look at the public statements During the war, during this very fragile ceasefire, it's all over the map because President Trump engages not in traditional diplomacy, but what I call performative diplomacy.
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