Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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He did rivalries a massive hit. Everyone's talking about the sex, but it's just as much about the exquisite pain of having a crush. And I think yearning can provide this sort of, like, masochistic joy, too. And, like, we all need more joy in our lives right now. This week on Explain It To Me from Vox, love hurts. And it hurts so good. New episodes Sundays wherever you get your podcasts.
Today's number 93. Polymarket accurately called 93% of the Golden Globes winners last week. The Golden Globes really isn't an award ceremony. It's not a joke? No, and that's me pausing because I forgot what I was going to say. I think I came up with something good. Today's number 93. Polymarket accurately called 93% of the Golden Globes winners last week. The Alzheimer's is kicking in.
It's time to call my nurse, reheat my soup. Today's number 93. Polymarket accurately called 93% of the Golden Globe winners last week. That's incredible. The Golden Globes isn't as much as an award show as it is a gathering of people who would fuck their sister for a limited series on Hulu.
Ed, how are you?
I'm doing well, but I'm a little upset that we were not nominated for a Golden Globe for Best Podcast. There were a lot of nominations. It was the first year that the podcast category was created, and we were not on the list. And so I'm a little bit upset about it. Other than that, I'm doing very well. How are you?
I was watching the award speeches on TikTok of all places, and I thought, that is the exact same vibe and tone I use to thank my dealer. It's like, it's got that same, oh, thanks, man. It's got that same sort of vibe. Or when I roll up to a bar, and I remember I didn't put on deodorant, but at that point, I remember where the deodorant bar is. I don't know. I know where I was going with that.
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Chapter 2: What investigation did Trump launch against Jerome Powell?
Jamie Dimon's saying that we're, like, at the most unstable time since World War II. All of the metals are rallying. And yet... Bitcoin is down on the year. It's down about 1% compared to this time last year, which is just fascinating. I feel like this keeps on happening to Bitcoin, where the doomsday case is being tested, and that is Bitcoin is supposed to be a hedge against just...
apocalypse like in any form it's the same supposed to be the digital gold that's kind of what gold is bitcoin's supposed to be the same thing and that every time when it's bitcoin's time to perform and prove that it is indeed the digital gold i feel like it continues to flop it happened when russia first invaded ukraine everyone was waiting for bitcoin to rally didn't happen
And the same has happened here. While all of the precious metals that people go into when they're very scared about what's going to happen in the world, when all of those metals rise, Bitcoin's just been kind of eh, which is certainly a concern for, I would say, Bitcoin maximalists.
Maybe it was riding on some momentum because of what we saw with Trump when he promised to save the Bitcoin industry. What do you know? It's down 1%. But it is striking what has happened with Bitcoin. You would have thought that it would have performed. Yeah, there's the notion that Bitcoin is a hedge and serves the same purpose as gold. It just hasn't panned out. It tends to...
you know, it tends to follow its own, I don't know, its own supply and demand. I don't really have any insight here. I clearly, if I ever start talking about which way Bitcoin is going to go, take out a gun and shoot me in the face, because I clearly don't understand the dynamics of the crypto market. Well, next time you want to invest in a Bitcoin treasury company, just call me, call me.
Call Ed Elson. I'll tell you not to do it. So one thing to think about here as well is, We've got all of these crazy military events happening around the world, which probably want to get your views on too. But, you know, this is a market show. This is an investing show.
So when we think about how to invest, how to think about it, generally what happens when conflicts break out is stocks go down and gold goes up or some equivalent to gold, like platinum, for example, right?
um and we can see this in the numbers on average when conflicts have emerged over the past 20 years the four-week return on stocks has been negative two percent the four-week return on gold has been positive three percent gold has gone up three percent in some cases it's even been worse we looked at the start of world war one for example where stocks fell 30 percent
and the markets closed for four months. So generally what happens in an environment such as the one we're in right now, when things get kind of ugly, when people start shooting at each other, stocks go down, gold goes up. And that appears to be the consensus among everyone, and it appears to be what we are seeing, at least in the past week or so.
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Chapter 3: How has the market reacted to Trump's investigation of Powell?
We're obsessing over it right now because these numbers are very striking. I think we have a tendency during conflict, during wartime, to think, okay, sell your stocks, buy the gold. I think one thing that we should highlight is like, Long-term, you probably don't want to give in to that tendency. Long-term, stocks still perform great, regardless of what's happening and who's fighting with whom.
And I think that's going to be something for investors to kind of wrestle with. Because, you know, I don't know what's going to happen next. I mean, Trump said Iran... You know, they've stopped killing people, so we're not going to invade. But, I mean, who the fuck knows? And as soon as people get the guns out, it seems like all bets are off. I could see gold ripping even higher.
And then the question is, like, do you have the balls to hold on to your stocks, or are you going to sell and buy the gold and put it under your mattress? What I found more interesting is we essentially go through, I don't want to say invade, but inspire a regime change in Venezuela, and oil barely moved. I'm actually very bullish on what the Trump administration did in Venezuela.
I think having a satellite and Navy bases for China and Russia in our hemisphere is a really bad idea. Russia is distracted. China is geographically too far to do anything about it. So similar to a Bond film where the opening, they always nail the openings in Bond films. It's just sometimes it goes on to be a great film. Sometimes it goes on to be a shitty film.
And so far, this has been executed with such incredible strategy and strength. The Rangers, the Air Force, intelligence assets on the ground, the Navy, pulled off in 35 minutes what Putin has been unable to pull off in 35 months. Every adversary in the world is remembering what Secretary Albright, one of my heroes, said 20-odd years ago. Our memory is long and our reach is far.
Our reach is not only far, it can fucking strangle you. I mean, that, from a brand standpoint, I think that was one of the biggest flexes in recent geopolitical history. The problem is I worry this Bond film is about to be a quantum of solace, and that is a really shitty film. Because rather than...
capitalizing on this incredible military victory from the best-performing organization in history, C-Above the U.S. Military. The playbook here is very simple. The greatest innovation in geopolitical history was the Marshall Plan. The Imperial Navy of Japan was murdering our sailors stranded in the sea, the Tong Death March, you know, just torturous.
We had a lot of reason to be angry at these people. And what did we do, Ed? What did we do? What did American taxpayers decide to do with Japan and Germany post-World War II? We rebuilt their fucking nations. And we leveraged our great institutions and we let them immigrate. And we said, I know as punishment, we're going to rebuild incredible societies and democracies. Why?
Because you are an incredible society. And it's clear that no matter what we do, you're going to be a force in the world because you've built such incredible societies. So here's an idea. Let's, when you're at your weakest, really help you. And who are our strongest allies in the world?
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