Trump Is Wishcasting Victory in Iran
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
This is Radio Atlantic. I'm Adam Harris, in for Hannah Rosen. This week began with President Trump giving Iran an ultimatum. Open up the Strait of Hormuz, cut a deal, or face attacks on civilian infrastructure.
We have a plan, because of the power of our military, where every bridge in Iran will be decimated by 12 o'clock tomorrow night, where every power plant in Iran will be out of business, burning, exploding, and never to be used again. I mean, complete demolition.
That was him speaking at a Monday press conference. The next morning, he was even more direct. A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again, he declared on Truth Social. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will.
What ultimatum did President Trump give Iran?
In the hours before his Tuesday night deadline, the United States announced a two-week ceasefire while the talks play out. The deal already looks shaky, with Israel striking targets in Lebanon and Iranian state media saying the Strait is again closed in response. Talks are set to begin in Pakistan this weekend. But in the meantime, the president can't take back his words. Words that appear to meet the UN definition of genocide, and when uttered by a world leader, are taken as policy. To understand what comes next, I'm joined by two Atlantic staff writers who follow the military and foreign affairs, Nancy Youssef and Tom Nichols. Nancy, thanks for joining.
Thanks for having me.
Tom, it's great to have you. Hey, Adam. Thanks for having me. So, Tom, we're speaking on Wednesday. As the clock was winding down on Tuesday, I guess a very blunt question. Did you think he was going to go through with the threats?
I didn't think it was impossible, but I think it would have provoked a constitutional crisis, which means that it was much less likely than not to happen, because I think he would have had to order the military to do things that the military this time would have balked at. There are reports that the military is already giving the president lists of things that only had military applicability, which is not the same thing as erasing a civilization. So I didn't think it was likely to happen. But as I said in the piece I wrote that afternoon... When the president of the United States talks, you have to take it seriously, no matter how... I mean, we're used to Trump saying kind of loopy things and talking about sharks and his uncle and electricity and whatnot.
But nonetheless, he is the president, and the president's statements are policy. And so I said, well, it's not likely to happen, but we have to treat his statements as if it could happen and go from there.
Yeah, and Nancy... What were your sources telling you about Trump's threats in the lead up to that deadline?
So there was a lot of anxiety after that social media post right after Easter in which he threatened the destruction of civilization. And people were really trying to figure out what was in the realm of possible in terms of what could be done. The conversation I heard in the run up to the deadline was that the U.S. wouldn't be hitting historical sites or civilian infrastructure, but that they would go after what's called dual use, things that are used both by the military for military purposes and for civilian use. But then you can't just sort of declare dual use and then strike. It has to be proportional. You have to demonstrate it. So I think that was sort of the start of people looking for an off ramp from the rhetoric that we heard
And then by days and you could, I couldn't figure out why at the time you could feel that things that sort of calm down in terms of the anxiety that I was feeling in the morning from sources, but we didn't quite understand why at the time. And I thought, that maybe it was because even if the military had gone through, which, as Tom noted, would have caused a lot of mayhem, even that wasn't going to guarantee the fall of the regime. So the question I kept coming back to is, what is the military gain that comes with doing these unprecedented strikes? We've seen the Iranian regime survive.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:07–1:01
2
What ultimatum did President Trump give Iran?
1:01–4:47
3
What threats did Trump make regarding military actions against Iran?
4:47–5:49
4
What led to the announcement of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire?
5:49–7:50
5
How are Trump's statements perceived in terms of political policy?
7:50–10:06
6
What was the military's perspective on Trump's threats?
10:06–29:42