Chapter 1: What signals has President Trump given regarding military action against Iran?
Today, we're talking about a potential war with Iran, which is a fast-shifting situation. We're recording this episode on Wednesday afternoon, a day before the U.S. and Iran are scheduled to hold talks in Geneva.
Ahead of the negotiation, Iranian officials are giving mixed messages, calling Trump's remarks about Iran big lies, but also saying they hope the two sides can come to an agreement through diplomacy. U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and the president's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, are meeting with Iran's top negotiator, Abbas Araghchi, along with a mediator from Oman.
The backdrop of these talks, meanwhile, includes dozens of U.S. warships and military aircraft recently moved to the region and aimed at Iran, which are possibly a tool to put pressure on Iranian leaders to yield to negotiations, but also it's a bigger buildup than you would typically use for just that purpose. I'm Hannah Rosen. This is Radio Atlantic.
President Trump has given many signals lately that he's prepared to go to war with Iran, but very little clarity about what the goal of that war would be.
My preference is to solve this problem through diplomacy.
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Chapter 2: What diplomatic negotiations are currently taking place between the U.S. and Iran?
His State of the Union this week was just a repeat of what he said before.
But one thing is certain. I will never allow the world's number one sponsor of terror, which they are by far, to have a nuclear weapon. Can't let that happen.
— Earlier this week, there were reports that General Dan Kaine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had raised concerns to the president about the scale and risks of the operation in Iran. Today, we talked to staff writer Tom Nichols about what military leadership might be thinking right now.
Chapter 3: What are the differing perspectives on Iran's nuclear program negotiations?
But first — — Ready? — I'm ready. — Staff writer Nancy Youssef, who's been tracking the military buildup in the region. Nancy, welcome to the show. Great to be with you. What conversations have already happened? Like, what do we know is up for negotiation? What do we expect at the talks?
So it kind of depends on who you ask. If you talk to the Americans, they would say that they want the talks to include several sort of categories. First, the future of Iran's nuclear program. Second, the future of its ballistic missile capability. Third, the use of its proxies across the region.
The Iranians would say that the talks have to focus strictly on their nuclear program, that asking them to limit their ballistic missile capability goes against their sovereignty and their ability for self-defense. So it depends on who you ask in terms of what specifically has been outlined. The overlap on that Venn diagram, though, is the future of its nuclear program. Having said that...
The U.S. has called for a complete disarmament, which the Iranians have rejected, saying that that would be a threat to them and that they would maintain the program. And so even though we know that they agree that nuclear program is part of the talks, What is an acceptable outcome? We haven't heard publicly, at least, an agreement on what that would look like.
If, for example, the United States agreed to the Iranians limiting their program for the next three to five years, would that be an acceptable outcome for the United States? As the administration's laid it out right now, it would not be.
Okay, so help me read between the lines here because you have experience following negotiations like this. Is this typical or is this massively wide gulf in which nobody's even agreeing on what they're talking about?
I wouldn't describe any of this as typical because we've built up such a big military force in the region and the threat of force is so imminent. And then on the specifics of the talks, usually, let's use the agreement from 2015, it's a months-long process that's really deep into the details of their program.
So Ernie Moniz, Secretary of Energy at the time, was at those talks because he's an expert on the topic. And so I think one of the reasons you're seeing this gap is that the talks, as they've been outlined so far, don't appear to be as detailed as I think were. would be useful to sort of close that gap in terms of working out what's an acceptable outcome.
So how do you interpret that? Like they've given themselves, it sounds like from what you're saying, less time than they need and there are a huge number of issues. What does that translate into for you?
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Chapter 4: What concerns do U.S. military leaders have about potential conflict with Iran?
And so... At face value of the president's statement, you can't call that an obliteration of the program. And if you believe, as the evidence would suggest, that there was damage but not an obliteration, then also military strikes in and of themselves don't work.
Right. So essentially these talks are necessary to achieve the goal. If the goal is, you know, limited to the nuclear program, we haven't talked about other potential goals, then you need these diplomatic talks to get there.
That's right. These programs don't end through strikes alone.
Right. And do you get the sense from sources in the Pentagon that they are putting faith in these negotiations to change anything?
I get the sense from the Pentagon that they were prepared to send as many resources as possible, in part in the hopes that their presence would serve as a form of leverage, and that they are in the best position possible to defend themselves, roughly 40,000 U.S. troops in the region, in addition to the thousands now on these aircraft carriers, destroyers, and then on the fighter jets. So...
They first and foremost want to defend themselves, carry out whatever objective the president outlines. But I wouldn't say that they are hopeful because that's not sort of their job in a way. Their job is sort of preparedness for success. multiple outcomes. I think the challenge they're having is the same when the public is having, is there hasn't been a clear articulation of what the U.S.
wants to achieve. And without that clear objective, it is harder for the military to make plans, right? Objectives sort of set the agenda for their strike plans. And so until that is outlined... How long does the United States give the Iranians to reach a deal? How much patience does the president have for talks? If they fail, what are the military options? What is the U.S.
hoping to achieve through those military options? That hasn't been, in my mind, clearly articulated such that you see a military planning towards that. Right.
So all we know is that right now they're preparing for every possible option.
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Chapter 5: What is the U.S. military's strategy for a potential strike on Iran?
Yeah.
Stephen Wyckoff said as much. He said in an interview with Fox earlier this week that the president was curious that the presence of U.S. military forces near their shores wasn't enough to lead to a capitulation of some kind. So they've said that.
I would argue that that's a fundamental misreading of the Iranians in that the Iranians see the threat to their program as an existential threat and are prepared to risk war to protect it and are prepared to suffer casualties arguably more than we are prepared to suffer casualties to dismantle it.
So it was revealing to me in terms of how they're revealing the Iranians if what Stephen Witkoff is saying is an accurate description of the president's position. The other thing I would note is if the use of force is designed to be leverage, and let's assume that I'm wrong and they're right and they've read the Iranians correctly, it is a very, very large presence for leverage.
I think the accurate way to think about it is that at one point it was potentially a form of leverage, but they're also there in place to be ready to go should negotiations fail.
You know, a basic question. Why the urgency?
Why is this happening now? That is the question. And I don't fully know the answer. There are pieces of it that we know. You remember at the end of December 2025, we saw remarkable protests that were happening across Iran and a bid by Iranians to change the leadership within their own country amid resistance. real economic hardship.
And at that time, the president sent out social media posts saying that we were coming to help, and the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group started moving towards the region. And then protests were put down, frankly, by the Iranians. Potentially great costs. The estimates are anywhere from 3,000 to 30,000 killed in the push to end those protests.
And then we started hearing this discussion about needing to strike a deal. I don't know if it's a scenario where the president started on this path with one goal in mind, thinking that the regime was in trouble and that there was an opportunity for the U.S. with just a little bit of help could sort of tip the scales in the protesters' favor and it's expanded to something else.
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Chapter 6: How does the current military buildup in the region influence negotiations?
Because this is how they are trained to think, and rightly so. We are going to apply military force to an enemy regime. What is it exactly we want them to do? Sign an agreement? Agree to sign an agreement? Is it regime change? How many people are we willing to kill? How many people are we willing to lose? What is the end state? What is the outcome, the resolution that tells us when we're done?
And why is that an important set of questions? Are those operational questions? Because we know what weapons and ships we need. Why is that the main calculation? Because it seems like a political question. So why is it a military question?
It's a strategic question. It's not a tactical question. question about, you know, how to fight, you know, with small groups of planes or men or tanks. It's not an operational question. It's not about how to move large military assets around and achieve objectives in the theater. It's a strategic question. And that is where that's what generals and admirals are supposed to be thinking about.
And working with the Secretary of Defense and the National Security Council and the State Department and everybody else to give the president good advice and especially to get clarity from the president about what it is we're supposed to be doing. We teach military officers in war colleges, ends, ways, means. Strategy is a dance among these things.
What's really worrisome, and again, going back to that notional general or admiral in the Pentagon, They have to be thinking, the president hasn't made this case to Congress. He hasn't made it to the people of the United States. I doubt he's made it to his own generals because he's so mercurial and changes his mind.
I think it's really revealing that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, it leaked out that he had concerns, that he was trying to caution the president about this whole business. But without knowing where you're going, any road gets you there.
So here's what was confusing to me about the news about General Dan Cain, which you mentioned. The way he put it was any operations against Iran will face challenges because the U.S. munitions stockpile has been depleted by defense of Israel and support for Ukraine. Can you analyze that for me? That's not about what you just said. That's about something very specific.
How much munitions do we have?
Well, one of the ways that the military, the senior military communicates to the senior civilian leadership is to talk about constraints. One definition of strategy is choice within constraints. Because if you think about it, if you have no constraints, you don't need a strategy, right?
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Chapter 7: What are the implications of regime change as a goal for U.S. actions in Iran?
You're going to communications. You're going to try and hit the leadership. You're going to try and figure out where they are and, you know, hit their bunkers. I mean, there is a lot. It's a very different profile for that kind of operation. And you're going to price in that you may lose some of your people there.
but that you're also going to kill a fair number of Iranians in that kind of operation as well.
Okay, so your best guess is that what he wants, even if it doesn't end up going this way, or he articulates it as something like regime change, because there's something heroic in that. What do you think his understanding is of the U.S. 's influence in the world and how it should behave?
You know, I think the best model for how Donald Trump understands the world is a great book. There are two great books of international affairs. One is The Peloponnesian War, and the other is The Godfather. The Godfather explains everything you need to know about international affairs in the modern era.
That the world is basically a violent and unruly place, which is true, and that it's ruled by families. And, you know, there's Putin's family, and there's Don Xi Jinping, and there's, you know, the unruly neighborhoods to the south. And I think he thinks of himself as the head of the commission, that he's the senior boss of the five families.
So, you know, this upstart in Iran, you know, he needs to make his bones here. Not only to show who's boss, but again, because I do think there's an issue of glory involved here. I mean, he...
I know that this sounds like kind of dime store psychology, but you're talking about a man who keeps plastering his name on things in Washington and has started a diplomatic crisis with our own allies because they didn't give him a peace prize.
OK, so let's say this is the theory. It's sort of mafia like a little bit arbitrary and determined by whims. If that is true, what do you most worry about in that scenario?
I most worry about people like Trump and Putin, among others. walking into situations that they don't know how to get out of later. You know, Trump is not a man, whoever admits a mistake, he backs down while declaring victory. And, you know, backing down sometimes is his only option.
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