RenMac

RenMac Off-Script: Biden's Burden

21 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses why housing is hurting, why economic growth in 2024 will be worse than in 2023, how the Fed's risk distribution has shifted, why this...

RenMac Off-Script: The Fed Needs To Get On With It

14 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses whether global election trends will impact the U.S., the significantly different U.S. presidential election forecasts between 538 and...

RenMac Off-Script: The Big Bull In Little China

07 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the latest payroll print, the political impact of the Trump conviction one week later, the impact of lower yields, the global strengt...

RenMac Off-Script: Conviction Conundrum

31 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the political impact of the Trump conviction, how growth isn’t getting away from the Fed, sentiment and the post momentum hang-over...

RenMac Off-Script: Nvidia’s Scary Shadow Over S&P

24 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses why the Nvidia phenomenon may have overshadowed some broader concerns, why the bond market was down on the PMI print, why the consens...

RenMac Off-Script: Debate Bait

17 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses how Biden agreed to debate on his terms, the encouraging inflation print, how much of Biden’s billions have been spent and what Tru...

RenMac Off-Script Podcast: Consumer Conundrums

10 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses how the FDIC fallout may play out next week, the improvement in small banks, the consumer credit conundrum, the short rate risk/rewar...

RenMac Off-Script Podcast: The Economy Isn’t Getting Away From The Fed

03 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the economic data dump this week, why the realized inflation data will be important, Powell’s case for weaker inflation, why the vo...

RenMac Off-Script: Closer To The End?

26 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the low GDP and high inflation reports, how volatile trade figures may have skewed the data to the downside, why the consensus is pro...

RenMac Off-Script: 3 Pillars of a Low

19 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Jeff goes solo off-script to talk about the recent equity weakness, the things he looks for to call a tactical bottom and where we stand currently.

RenMac Off-Script: Cuts Delayed Not Derailed

12 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the implications of the global gold rush led by central banks; why the latest inflation report still points to when, not if the Fed c...

RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Eclipse the Bears

05 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the bullish jobs number, why it might not keep the Fed from cutting in June, how it might send neutral rates higher, why No Labels en...

RenMac Off-Script Podcast: Powell Told Us What He Told Us

28 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses Fed Governor Waller’s comments, context, and contrast with Powell; reconciling GDI and GDP; Biden’s bump in the Bloomberg battleg...

RenMac Off-Script Podcast: Political & Productivity Paradox

22 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses how Michigan may determine the 2024 presidential outcome and how it is driving Biden’s EV policies, why the six months of progress ...

RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Ethan Harris

20 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

For nearly three decades, Ethan Harris was a fixture on Wall Street. After a stint at the New York Fed, Ethan went to Lehman Brothers where he served ...

RenMac Off-Script Podcast: TikTok Trade

15 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Neil and Steve welcome Kevin to the podcast to discuss Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s desire to replace Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Neta...

RenMac Off-Script: Bullish Zone

08 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses how the payroll print is bullish for the soft-landing camp, why you should keep watching the unemployment number, how both parties sa...

RenMac Off-Script: Momentum Vs. Beta

01 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the relief rally in response to inflation data coming in as expected, why a stronger economy doesn’t linearly map to inflation, how...

RenMac Off-Script: Fiscal and Fed Fiasco

23 Feb 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Howard joins Jeff and Steve to discuss the depressing U.S. debt outlook from the CBO, how the transformation of Japan’s economy is impacting global ...

RenMac Off-Script: No-mentum

16 Feb 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the volatility around the recent economic data, moderating inflation expectations, the correlation between air freight and industrial...

RenMac Off-Script: How Much Did Hur Hurt Biden?

09 Feb 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the good, bad, and ugly for Biden in the Special Counsel report, Neil’s affinity for pop culture, how stronger productivity may be ...

RenMac Off-Script: A Flukey Month

02 Feb 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses why the flukey payroll report may reduce the Fed’s sense of urgency, why the weather mattered in January, how a boost in productivi...

RenMac Off-Script: Extreme Options

26 Jan 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses Nikki Haley’s prospects, Trump’s Veep-stakes, how voters are viewing an improving economy, the path of least resistance, why Tesl...

RenMac Off-Script: Retail Sales & Retail Politics

19 Jan 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses why Nikki Haley’s path to the presidency beyond NH is not a bright one, how better than expected retail sales and residential housi...

RenMac Off-Script: Canceling That 70s Show

12 Jan 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses why markets shrugged off the latest CPI miss, how the Fed places more emphasis on the PCE, why data may be driving the Fed more than ...

RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Point To Productivity

05 Jan 2024

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses why the latest payroll print points to productivity gains, why 3-to-4 rate cuts are more likely than 6, how geopolitical risks in the...

RenMac Off-Script: Yes, There is a Santa Clause

29 Dec 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Renmac discusses how dollar weakness contributes to global growth, the history of 8-consecutive weeks of S&P gains, the latest in the primary ball...

RenMac Off-Script: Trash vs. Treasure

22 Dec 2023

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses how the latest PCE print supports a March Fed cut but why it may not go as far as the market is pricing, whether animal spirits can l...

RenMac Off-Script: Escape Velocity

15 Dec 2023

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the escape velocity in equities, Powell’s press conference, why a March cut is looking more likely, who wore the boldest sweater on...

RenMac Off-Script: Entrenched Disinflation

08 Dec 2023

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses how the latest jobs print shows a stabilizing workforce, why the disinflation process is more entrenched now, the contraction in 2-ye...

RenMac Off-Script: Fed Cuts: When NOT If

01 Dec 2023

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the latest inflation data, why you should watch Waller, ’95 vs. ’98 debate, the proverbial “everybody” problem, the gap betwe...

RenMac Off-Script: Yield Dependency

24 Nov 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Jeff and Steve discuss Neil’s holiday traditions, the impact of a third-party presidential candidate, why Republicans feel better about their chance...

RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Affirmation

17 Nov 2023

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses why the latest inflation data reinforces an extended pause, the disinflation pipeline, why real yields are a good predictor of nomina...

RenMac Off-Script: Losing Control

10 Nov 2023

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses what Tuesday’s election results mean for next year, the Republican debates, the emergence of new third-party presidential candidate...

RenMac Off-Script: Nonlinear Risks

03 Nov 2023

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses how the soft payroll print will impact the Fed, how the recent strikes may have impacted the data, why good things happened to housin...

RenMac Off-Script: Fed vs. GDP

27 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses why Gavin Newsom is meeting with Xi Jinping, why “Mike Johnson” is a leading Google search, the momentum behind 3Q GDP, why the F...

RenMac Off-Script: Don’t Follow the Easy Path

20 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses Powell’s speech on the outlook, why the Fed is probably done for 2023 but why the economy is not, why builders might be a buy despi...

RenMac Off-Script: House of Horrors

13 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discuss the latest political drama around the House Speakership race, the prospect of an acting Speaker working with Democrats, why the upside ...

RenMac Off-Script: Grasping At Straws

06 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses the upside surprise in payrolls, why the bears are grasping at straws, how the UAW strike could impact future prints, the in...

RenMac Off-Script: Cracking Gold

29 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses why hiking is harder for the Fed, the danger of focusing on headlines rather than data, cracks in gold, well-behaved BBB spr...

RenMac Off-Script: No Capitulation

22 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses why the gov’t shutdown could last a while, why the market reaction was more surprising than the Fed’s decision to erase ...

RenMac Off-Script: 3Ss (Shutdown, Strike, and Student Loans)

15 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses the odds and economic impact (or lack thereof) of a gov’t shutdown, why not all inflation data is created equal, whether s...

RenMac Off-Script: Fed Following Financial Flow

08 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses recent polling around Biden’s age, Nikki Haley’s chances, the anecdotal wage stories, responding to capital conditions, ...

RenMac Off-Script: Data Deluge

01 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Neil and Steve digest the economic data dump, why August may have been a peculiar month that understated jobs, why cyclicals are looking stronger, why...

RenMac Off-Script: Fireworks in Russia not the GOP Debate

25 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses Trump’s GA mugshot strategy, Neil’s opinion on the Indian guy and gal in the Republican primary, why Bullard sounds like Neil on ...

RenMac Off-Script: Retail Robustness

18 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the breakout in 10-year yields, why Neil thinks the Fed is still offsides on growth, the political impact (or lack thereof) of the la...

RenMac Off-Script: Suckers for a Soft-Landing?

11 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Neil and Steve discuss the Biden administration’s actions towards China, how the Fed might be getting sucked into the soft-landing story, and whethe...

RenMac Off-Script: Still In The Woods

04 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses why the latest payroll print will not provide comfort to the Fed, why employment is slowing as the economy is ramping up, why China c...

RenMac Off-Script: Precision vs. Accuracy

28 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the bullish GDP data, receding recession risk, knowing what you don’t know, the low odds of pulling off two soft-landings, how rely...

RenMac Off-Script: Betting on Beta

21 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses how to adjust the different economic outlook scenarios based on recent data, why a third-party candidate would pull more votes away f...

RenMac Off-Script: Lower Inflation = Less Fed Pressure

14 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses how the latest inflation report will take pressure off the Fed and increases the odds of a soft landing, why bull steepening is more ...

RenMac Off-Script: Keeping Dry Powder

07 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Renmac discuss why our elevated yield impact model and seasonality favors keeping some dry powder, but not the same type found in the White House this...

RenMac Off-Script: Bull Boost

30 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses Neil’s ten-year anniversary trip and why he feels there will be no recession, the durable strength of the consumer, why th...

RenMac Off-Script: Powell’s Performance

23 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses Powell’s performance before lawmakers, why the Fed may be offsides on housing and economic growth, data still supporting a...

RenMac Off-Script: The Powell Pause

16 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses the market response to the Fed pause, why the risk for the Fed is taking their feet off the brakes too soon, receding recess...

RenMac Off-Script: Incrementally Capitulating

09 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses the labor market, the gravitation towards beta, looking for contraction in BBB spreads, the growing Republican rift on defen...

RenMac Off-Script: Plenty of Payrolls

02 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses whether the strong payrolls number will impact the Fed, why a June skip is still likely, the winners and losers of the debt ...

RenMac Off-Script: Ronning For President

26 May 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses the debt limit calendar, why the onus is on the growth bears to justify their position, why housing could be more important ...

RenMac Off-Script: Debt Limit Diffused

19 May 2023

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses why it’s increasingly likely a debt limit agreement is complete before the June 1 deadline, the entry of Florida Governor DeSantis ...

RenMac Off-Script: Debt Limit Drama

12 May 2023

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the improving odds around a debt limit deal, how the latest inflation data bolsters the chances for a Fed pause this summer, the fluk...

RenMac Off-Script: Confidence Game

05 May 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses the latest jobs blowout, why the Fed is less likely to cut now, the importance of nominal incomes, how the banking consterna...

RenMac Off-Script: Logic Isn’t Truth

28 Apr 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses the view from London, the mixed message from breadth and international equities, strength in the housing market, the drag on...

RenMac Off-Script: Homebuilder Highs

21 Apr 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses Philadelphia vs. the Empire economic data, how crude oil and yields are exhibiting downtrend characteristics, whether the Fe...

RenMac Off-Script: M2’s Declining Relevance

14 Apr 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac Team is joined by financials/payments analyst Howard Mason to discuss the turmoil in the banking industry, what the latest data means for t...

RenMac Off-Script: Jobs Give Fed Benefit of Time

07 Apr 2023

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses why the March employment report is a win for the soft-landing bulls, the Fed’s wait and see approach with a tightening bias, the ou...

RenMac Off-Script: Ham Sandwiches Can Be Indicted

31 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses Neil’s bourbon trail trip, Trump indictment politics, the Fed’s failure to prevent the collapse of SVB, where is San Fra...

RenMac Off-Script: No Middle Ground in a Banking ‘Crisis’

24 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Blurb The RenMac Team discusses the Fed’s 25 bps move, how one’s view of a banking crisis determines their outlook on future interest decisions, t...

RenMac Off-Script: Banking March Madness

17 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses the impact of SVB collapse on the banking industry, how it is becoming politicized, whether SVB was a feature or bug of the ...

RenMac Off-Script: Neutral Needs To Be Higher

10 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses the latest payroll print, why the Fed’s work is not done, the higher bar for not going 50bps, why neutral needs to be high...

RenMac Off-Script: Psyched for Cyclicality

03 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses the improvement in global manufacturing and services PMIs, why a need to rebuild inventories could lead to strong manufactur...

RenMac Off-Script: An Anniversary Not Worth Celebrating

24 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses the Ukraine anniversary, China’s increasing role in the conflict, Dow theory and the movement of averages for tomorrow, wh...

RenMac Off-Script: February Can’t Cool the Data

17 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses the new CBO debt limit “X-date” forecast, how Kevin McCarthy can use his Taiwan trip as leverage to get spending concess...

RenMac Off-Script: Great Expectations

10 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses Biden’s State of the Union address, 2024 implications, why the Fed is likely to maintain its higher-for-longer approach to...

RenMac Off-Script: Trust the Thrust

03 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac Team discusses China flying balloons over Montana, why the huge payroll number makes Powell look offsides, an optimistic outlook for autos,...

RenMac Off-Script: Unlikely to Spontaneously Combust

27 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac discusses the 4th quarter GDP numbers, the unlikeliness of a near-term recession, the confirming indications from equities, the latest on the d...

RenMac Off-Script: Tilting Towards Cyclicality

20 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses the debt limit debate, the poor December economic data, why the narrative may still be moving in a positive direction moving...

RenMac Off-Script: Soft now, hard later?

13 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses the DOJ’s classification conundrum, the latest consumer price inflation print, why the soft landing thesis might only be t...

RenMac Off-Script: How Low Can You Go?

06 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses the latest in the speaker spectacle in the House, the latest payroll print, how the lower unemployment rate will make it har...

RenMac Off-Script: On the Recession Train Too Soon

16 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses Trump’s decline and DeSantis’s rise amongst Rs in the polls, Congress kicking the gov’t funding can to next week, the ...

RenMac Off-Script: Tis the Seasonal

09 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac Team discuss whether the new jobs claims data will impact the Fed’s moves, how seasonality impacts unemployment, stronger than expected P...

RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls, Powell & PMI

02 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses Powell’s speech, how the payroll report threw a gut-punch into the soft-landing story, why we’re still searching for a s...

RenMac Off-Script: MAGA is Nada

18 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses the implications of a divided government, why the economy might not be slowing as fast as some policymakers would prefer, wh...

RenMac Off-Script: Election and Inflation Surprises

11 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses the election results, whether Trump will back out of his Tuesday announcement, Ron DeSantis R nominee prospects surging, the...

RenMac Off-Script: Why Midterms Matter For The Fed

04 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses the latest payroll print and why it will not impact the Fed’s outlook, why the bigger risk may be the Fed underdoing it, w...

RenMac Off-Script: Breaking the Markets is Easier than the Economy

28 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses the Republican resurgence in polls and betting markets, some concerns in the latest GDP report and how it might impact the F...

RenMac Off-Script: This Time Is Different

21 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses the political winds shifting in favor of Rs ahead of the midterms, how the sluggish economy is impacting the housing market,...

RenMac Off-Script: Powell’s Pivot Pushed?

14 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses the higher-than-expected inflation print, why the Fed will have to wait longer before pivoting, how betting markets are pric...

RenMac Off-Script: Payroll Print Won’t Prompt Powell Pivot

07 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses why the payroll report will not change the Fed’s direction, why Powell believes higher unemployment is needed to lower inf...

RenMac Off-Script: What’s the Bull Case

30 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

nMac talks about sentiment, it’s faults and features, what could go right, the valuation problem, why bonds are attractive, next week’s jobs numbe...

RenMac Off-Script: So Far, Not So Good

23 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Renmac discusses the Fed’s neutral rate, persistent strength in employment, Neil’s personal microcosm of housing, the potential for a government s...

RenMac Off-Script: Claims vs Commodities

16 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

RenMac highlights Larry Sabato’s higher than consensus’ odds of R’s taking the Senate, the 100 vs 75bps debate, implications of $FDX news, relat...

RenMac Off-Script: Offsides Overcompensation

09 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses Queen Elizabeth’s legacy, why Biden is leaving Trump’s China tariffs in place, markets pricing in 150bps over the next t...

RenMac Off-Script: Paying More For Less

02 Sep 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses how the U.S. economy is not slowing down and what that means for the Fed moving forward, Biden’s political speech aimed at...

RenMac Off-Script: Jackson Hole or Black Hole

26 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Neil and Jeff talk about the wages, housing, market momentum, trouble with forward guidance and the upcoming Fed meeting.

RenMac Off-Script: Rainy Days In Vegas & For The GOP

19 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses Neil’s recent trip to Vegas, Democrats improved political standing, Bullard’s motives and message, how this housing rece...

RenMac Off-Script: A Summer of Skeptics

12 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Biden’s 0% inflation victory lap, better/worse vs good/bad, momentum is unusually strong and bullish, how the Mar Largo raid increases odds of Trump...

RenMac Off-Script: Higher Highs and Lower Lows

05 Aug 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses how the employment report cements a 75 bps move for the Fed and increases the odds of a hard landing, why the short-term cur...

RenMac Off-Script: Slowdown vs. Recession

29 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses how Schumer outmaneuvered McConnell on the reconciliation package, Powell’s pivot to a pause vs. cut, SPX 20-day high sign...

RenMac Off-Script: European Blowback Hits U.S.

22 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses Jeff’s desire for more tattoos, Biden’s climate emergency non-declaration, the political impact of Biden getting COVID, ...

RenMac Off-Script: Staring into the Abyss

15 Jul 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The RenMac team discusses a new record-high inflation report and whether 100bps is more likely, Powell latching to lagging indicators, is core service...