RenMac
Episodes
RenMac Off-Script: The Fed’s Hall of Mirrors
08 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The RenMac team discusses the latest jobs report and why it might embolden the Fed to go 75bps, whether employment is the best indicator of a potentia...
RenMac Off-Script: Recession Preferable To Inflation
01 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The RenMac team discusses Powell’s preference for a recession rather than an inflation policy mistake, the Fed’s preferred PCE measure running muc...
RenMac Off-Script: Fed Up With The Fed
24 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The RenMac team discusses if the Fed is cherry picking data, moderating growth, gas tax politics and prospects, keying in on core PCE, and Powell dism...
RenMac Off-Script: Powell Panics
17 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Jeff, Neil and Steve discuss the 75bps move as some signs of easing inflation present themselves. The team also discusses the political challenges of...
RenMac Off-Script: Inflation: Peak or Plateau?
10 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Neil and Steve discuss the latest CPI number, what Powell may say and not say next week, the inverse correlation between Biden’s approval ratings an...
RenMac Off-Script: Another Goldilocks Jobs Report
03 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The RenMac Team discusses the good news in the flattening unemployment rate, evidence building for the Fed to back off its 50bps pace, Yellen’s infl...
RenMac Off-Script: Can Powell Pull A Maverick?
27 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac’s team discusses the Fed’s pivot, the hard or soft landing of the economy, the SPX bear market, the consistency in the Taiwan-Biden-gaffe, ...
RenMac Off-Script: Markets Utter the “R” Word
20 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac discusses why the data doesn’t support recession narrative, the low but rising level of unemployment claims, the risk of a dovish policy pivo...
RenMac Off-Script: A Peek at Peak Inflation
13 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac crew discusses the inflation data, the historical impact of peak inflation on markets and sectors, a first-hand look at the baby shortage form...
RenMac Off-Script: Economy Looking Better as Markets Look Worse
06 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The RenMac team discusses April’s “goldilocks” employment report, why wage growth will moderate, how Powell’s comments this week increase the ...
RenMac Off-Script: Good Signs In Bad GDP Report
29 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The RenMac team discusses the latest GDP report, healthy customer demand suggests rebound in Q2, equity market efficiency, strong compensation growth ...
RenMac Off-Script: Popping Bullard’s Balloon
22 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The RenMac team discusses Bullard’s balloon, Fed’s likely three 50 bps hike pace, recession probability declining in face of economic momentum, pa...
RenMac Off-Script: Mimosas and the Fed
08 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The RenMac team discusses Brainard’s comments on reducing the balance sheet and the market’s reaction, next week’s inflation report and how the ...
RenMac Off-Script: Donna Summer is Dancing
01 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The RenMac team discusses the hot payroll number, climbing participation rate, Fed can go longer without breaking the economy, misunderstood inverted ...
RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Domination
25 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The RenMac Team discusses inflation historically being an energy problem, broadening inflation, Powell backing 50 bps hikes now, Biden’s economic as...
RenMac Off-Script: If Powell Was A Pilot
18 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The RenMac team discuss the impact of Raskin’s withdrawal from the Fed, the dreaded death cross, staying out of the stew, trucker’s rise on Fed me...
RenMac Off-Script: Inflation: The Russian Excuse
11 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The RenMac team discusses the muted market reaction to sky high inflation, what the two and ten year yields are telling us, bond market history of fig...
RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Boom Persists
04 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The RenMac team discusses the solid payroll numbers, confirmation that we’re in an inflationary boom, Biden’s failure to reset at the State of the...
RenMac Off-Script: Hiking Into a Boom
18 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac discusses the impact of the Fed hiking into a booming economy, the dwindling prospects of Raskin’s confirmation, peak inflation but shifting ...
RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Nation
11 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac team discusses opening Wordle words, NYC traffic, the broadening of inflation, permission for the Fed to go 50 bps in March, consumers resistan...
RenMac Off-Script: Economy Is Learning To Live With COVID
04 Feb 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The RenMac team discusses the big jobs surprise amid Omicron fears, economic momentum for more aggressive rate hikes, the impact of a 49-50 Senate for...
RenMac Off-Script: Returns Drive Flows
28 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The RenMac team discusses what a potential Russian invasion could mean for energy markets and inflation, compensation growth exceeding productivity gr...
RenMac Off-Script: “Minor Incursion” Has Major Consequences
21 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The RenMac team discusses Biden’s press conference and international ramifications, shifting sentiment with bears outweighing bulls, and the Fed’s...
RenMac Off-Script: I’ve Had a Bad Days, but Not Like Biden
14 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac reviews the political costs of inflation, how the new Fed nominees could impact policy, the importance of quality as liquidity normalizes, sign...
RenMac Off-Script: Focus on the Fed
07 Jan 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The RenMac team discusses the collapse of concept capital, the Fed’s March glidepath, whether the Fed is offsides, inflationary buildup in the labor...
RenMac Off-Script: That Damned Yield Curve
17 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac debates Build Back Better vs Build Back at All, Powell’s latest thoughts, vacancies at the Fed, implications of the yield curve and the conti...
RenMac Off-Script: Powell Needs a Big Stick
10 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Neil crashes “Off-script” from Miami to discuss inflation, while Steve views it thru the lens of fiscal policy and 2022 elections. Jeff discusses...
RenMac Off-Script: Data Won’t Dissuade Fed
03 Dec 2021
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac discusses today’s weak jobs headline but strong details, the curve conundrum given inflation expectations, the breakout in housing, will Kama...
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Moz Afzal
20 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Moz Afzal is the CIO of EFG International in London. He is the lead manager of EFG's New Capital Strategic Portfolio and New Capital Tactical Opportun...
RenMac Off-Script: Politicizing The Fed
19 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The RenMac team discussed Neil’s London trip and how it is more open than NYC, strong economic indicators, the politics behind Biden’s Fed’s dec...
RenMac Off-Script: Powell Will Need a Stiff Spine
12 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Renmac discusses inflation, the broadening of the data, the impact on the electorate and messaging out of Washington, the improvement in gold and the ...
RenMac Off-Script: Economy and Markets Melt Up In Q4
05 Nov 2021
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac discusses the acceleration in the labor market, Powell’s dovish press conference just before he was spotted at the White House, the breakout ...
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with David Fingold
30 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
David Fingold of Dynamic Funds in Toronto brings over 30 years of business and investment experience to his clients, but his path to overseeing more t...
RenMac Off-Script: D’s Fumble in the Red Zone
29 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac walks thru the latest mis-queues out of Washington, what today’s employment cost data mean, the poor 3Q relative GDP performance (France was ...
RenMac Off-Script: Inflation’s Flame Burning Powell’s Fingers
22 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Jeff, Neil and Steve discuss Powell’s status, the surge in 5yr break evens, gold’s message, the importance of the Gubernatorial race in Virginia, ...
RenMac Off-Script: Putin Is World’s Most Powerful Man
15 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Join the RenMac team as they discuss the Congressional calendar crunch, how the growing reliance on reliance on fossil fuels is benefiting Vladmir Put...
RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Won’t Dissuade the Fed
08 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac reviews McConnel’s strategy with Schumer, weaker payrolls and the implications for Fed policy, Late-cycle and sentiment, supply-chain issues,...
RenMac Off-Script: Self-inflicted Wounds from Washington
01 Oct 2021
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac debates the political gamesmanship out of Washington, Senator Warren’s swipe at Powell, the resignation of 2 Fed hawks, the status of backlog...
RenMac Off-Script: Powell Pushes Yields
24 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac discusses this week’s hawkish message out of the Fed, the importance of the breakout in 10-year yields, its implication for higher yields on ...
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Mike Masters
18 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Mike Masters of Masters Capital Management has had a storied career in the investment business. From his days in the pool as an All-American swimmer a...
RenMac Off-Script: Consumer Not Yet Exhausted
17 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Today Neil, Steve and Jeff discuss the strength and resilience of the consumer, the seasonality of equities and cyclicality, the important dates for u...
RenMac Off-Script: Biden Top-Ticks COVID
10 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Give us 13 minutes, we walk you through the strength of labor demand, why Biden’s speech is a sign that COVID concerns have likely peaked, how much ...
RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls and Approval
03 Sep 2021
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac dives head-first into today’s jobs number, the importance of employment distribution in the numbers, the impact it is likely to have on Fed t...
RenMac Off-Script: A D.C. September to Remember
27 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The RenMac Team discusses supply conditions impact on inflation, a daunting Congressional calendar in September, how Biden’s nominees will shape the...
RenMac Off-Script: The Deflating Reflation Trade
20 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac discusses the Biden’s challenge with budget reconciliation process, the oversold condition in energy and materials, the breakout in the dolla...
RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Starting to Bite Biden
13 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Give us 18 minutes, we run through the recent movement in inflation, why it will not necessarily sway the Fed but has brought more of a political resp...
RenMac Off-Script: Jobs Provide Fireworks for August
06 Aug 2021
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac discusses the robust employment report, hurdles for the August numbers, congressional recess, DeSantis vs Biden, lending standards, and the liq...
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Stephanie Link
31 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Stephanie Link has worn multiple hats over her tenured career, from the sell-side at Morgan Stanley to the buy-side working with Jim Cramer, then as h...
RenMac Off-Script: The Impending Debt Ceiling
30 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Renmac discusses the triangulation of debt ceiling and infrastructure this autumn, the GDP figures, how Powell is thinking about the world, the import...
RenMac Off-Script: Biden Recognizes Inflation
23 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Renmac discusses inflation, its non-transitory nature and the challenges it poses to stimulus, as well as breadth divergences, seasonality and the up...
RenMac Off-Script: Focused on the Fed
16 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Give us 11 minutes, we run through Powell’s testimony on the Hill this week, the outlook for the composition of the Board of Governors next year, wh...
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Dr. Arthur Laffer (Part 2)
10 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
In the last of our two-part conversation with Dr. Arthur Laffer we discuss inequality, deficits, his proposal for a flat tax, the Achilles' heal of Ke...
RenMac Off-Script: Bonds on an Island
09 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Give us 18 minutes, we walk you through the decoupling of Chinese and US tech and the regulatory hammer coming down from DC, why the bond market might...
RenMac Off-Script: How Long is Fed’s Fuse
02 Jul 2021
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac discusses the distinction between data and rhetoric, the red-hot ISM data, the implications from the yield curve, timing and internal politics ...
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Dr. Arthur Laffer
26 Jun 2021
Contributed by Lukas
In the National Museum of American History in Washington D.C. rests the Laffer Curve or, more precisely, the napkin upon which Dr. Arthur Laffer drew ...
RenMac Off-Script: Did the Fed Blink
18 Jun 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Renmac looks at the Feds statement this week, its impact on markets, the message from yields, seasonal influences on equities, and the latest out of W...
RenMac Off-Script: Inflation and China fears
11 Jun 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The RenMac team discusses the latest inflation report, the impact of a decline in the 10-year Treasury, and U.S. efforts to counter China.
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Stan Weinstein
05 Jun 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Stan Weinstein was the editor and author of "The Professional Tape Reader", and the 1988 book "Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets", where ...
RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Carbon Copy
04 Jun 2021
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac sifts thru the payroll data, the improvement in REITs, increased pressure on China, the primary duty of elected officials and next week’s inf...
RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Doesn’t Budge Bonds
28 May 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Steve, Neil and Jeff discuss the passing of the infrastructure deadline, the trend of inflation, Biden’s $6T budget proposal, the breakout in indust...
RenMac Off-Script: Thinking About Thinking About Rates
21 May 2021
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac discusses the regulatory environment around crypto, the temporal difference between Fed minutes and data, the yield curve and the breakout in g...
RenMac Off-Script: The Great Unmasking
14 May 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Renmac talks about the latest inflation data, the timing of the CDC’s decision, the oversold condition in technology, lending standards and the marg...
RenMac Off-Script: Shock and Awe-ful
07 May 2021
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac discusses the disappointing jobs number, the “disincentive to work” theory, the implications of FBs ongoing ban on Trump, the continued str...
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Ned Davis
01 May 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Ned Davis has been actively involved with the markets for 53-years, starting his eponymous firm NDR in 1980. Despite all the systems, technology and e...
RenMac Off-Script: What a Difference a Year Makes
30 Apr 2021
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac talks about the challenges facing the Fed in the months ahead with robust wages, inflation and GDP, what is in the American Family Plan, the in...
RenMac Off-Script: SPAC Attack, SEC is Circling
23 Apr 2021
Contributed by Lukas
In 14m RenMac discusses DC Statehood, the SEC’s new found interest in SPACs, 96% of names above 200-day MA, the importance of discretionary names, a...
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Richard Chilton
17 Apr 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Richard Chilton is the founder, chairman, CEO and CIO of Chilton Investment Company. He's been on the vanguard of investment trends for over 40-years ...
RenMac Off-Script: Declining dollar and polling reliability
16 Apr 2021
Contributed by Lukas
The RenMac team discusses the outlook for a weaker dollar, the admission of errors by pollsters, concerns about peak economic growth and what recent f...
RenMac Off-Script: People in Glass Houses
09 Apr 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Neil’s recent vacation confirms his data, the challenges of awakening corporate culture, how specialty retail is confirming the housing cycle, and t...
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Cathie Wood (Part 2)
03 Apr 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Cathie Wood has a meticulous and unique research process. In this 2 half of our conversation, we discuss how she procures ideas, determines when she's...
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Cathie Wood (Part 1)
27 Mar 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Cathie Wood and the ARK Innovation fund have become poster children for this bull market. Cathie invests in disrupters and innovators, but those are n...
RenMac Off-Script: The Press Fails to Press
26 Mar 2021
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac discusses Biden’s 1st news conference as President, dispelling some of the myths surrounding the Fed, the normalization of economic surprises...
RenMac Off-Script: Leading Indicators are Misleading
19 Mar 2021
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac discusses the uselessness of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, what indicators are useful for forward returns in the S&P 500, the Biden...
RenMac Legends: A Conversation With Tom Gallagher
13 Mar 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Tom Gallagher was a Washington Policy Legend on Wall Street for decades. We first crossed paths at Lehman Brothers in the late 1990s and then I had th...
RenMac Off-Script: Springing Ahead One Hour and Then Some
12 Mar 2021
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac looks at the latest inflation data and market implications, the wish lists in the stimulus bill, importance of 52-week highs in equities and Ja...
RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Take the Reopening Lead
05 Mar 2021
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac discusses the strong jobs data, stimulus flirting with the upper end of the range, rates and the duration trade, where we are in the economic c...
RenMac Legends: Anatomy of the South Sea Bubble with Prof. Odlyzko
27 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
300 years ago in London, the South Sea Bubble was deflating. It created vast fortunes for a few like Thomas Guy who used it to establish the eponymous...
RenMac Off-Script: Treasury Curve’s Bellyache
26 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac discusses the move in the Treasury markets, the quiescent response in Corporate credits, who is Elizabeth MacDonough and how might she be assis...
RenMac Off-Script: Will Data Dog Democrats?
19 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac debates the overwhelmingly strong economic data, the vaccination of the most vulnerable, how it impacts the COVID relief, how and where yields ...
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Scott Bessent
13 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Scott worked with some of Wall Street's most prominent investors before starting Key Square in 2016, the largest hedge fund launch of that year. His m...
RenMac Off-Script: Inflation: Perception vs Reality
12 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac discusses the outlook for inflation, the current extreme positioning in the bond market, Biden’s 180 on semiconductors’ strategic importanc...
RenMac Off-Script: The Shortening Stimulus Fuse
05 Feb 2021
Contributed by Lukas
In 16m, RenMac discusses the trend in gold, how today’s job numbers factor into stimulus negotiations, at what point is inflation not “transitory”...
RenMac Off-Script: Reddit Revolt and Strange Bedfellows
29 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
In 15m RenMac talks about the benefits of short-sellers in a market, the pitfalls of an SEC overview, Cruz and AOC, latest GDP figures and China’s r...
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Noah Blackstein
25 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
Noah runs over $5B as the growth manager of the Dynamic Funds out of Toronto Canada. He enters his 23rd year at the wheel, and has seen every type of ...
RenMac Off-Script: Unity and the Power of Unilateralism
22 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac discusses Biden’s first few days, how China doves mysteriously transitioned into hawks, housing and its importance, setting an artificially l...
RenMac Off-Script: Expectations Collide with Reality
15 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
In 15m RenMac discusses the Biden’s stimulus plan, the expectations of policy and the likelihood of something less, Powell green lights assets infla...
RenMac Off-Script: Better Economy But Stimulus Won’t Stop
08 Jan 2021
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac sorts through the news of the week. December jobs report was soft but with stronger details. Additional fiscal stimulus is on the way as GA goe...
RenMac Off-Script: Fed Passive Easing, Uncle Sam Active Easing
18 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac handicaps political winners/losers of stimulus, the great inflation debate, deGraaf’s “Perpetuity Effect”, what Fed’s comments mean for...
RenMac Off-Script: Energy Stocks Leading, Inflation Is Not Following
11 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
US equities are in an unambiguous uptrend. The energy sector is breaking out after a long funk, but we’re skeptical this means anything for price in...
RenMac Off-Script: The Bright Light at End of the Tunnel
04 Dec 2020
Contributed by Lukas
RenMac plays “Pardon Bingo”, latest on stimulus package, excessive sentiment readings in equity markets, economic bears are policy advocates, it r...