Show notes
Prof. Dr. Alfredo Toro Hardy, a retired Venezuelan diplomat, scholar, and author of multiple books, participates in Risk Roundup to talk about his new book, “America’s Two Cold Wars: From Hegemony to Decline?”
Risk Roundup: Is America In Decline?
Is America in Decline?
As we witness the world at war, it is vital to understand that warfare itself is going through a fundamental transformation. From conventional warfare, the world is already moving towards hybrid warfare. As a result, while some wars like the Ukraine-Russian crisis are visible, much of the conflict is not visible to most of us.
So, when we evaluate the ongoing warfare in Syria, Russia, Afghanistan, North Korea, and Africa to China, we realize that much has changed in the warfare terrain, tools, and ecosystem. The most significant change is that we are no longer dealing with conventional warfare, but we are witnessing the rise of asymmetric hybrid warfare and the return of the cold war.
Now, over the years, the world has witnessed countless conflicts. For example, the world has seen Islam v the West; regional conflicts versus global disputes; civil war versus religious warfare; ethnic versus sectarian conflicts; progressive versus conservatives, and so on. So, with each battle, the players are different, the motives are other, and so are the warfare tools. The growing geopolitical theories raise a reality check on the rise of the West’s battles with the rest of the world. Undoubtedly, America is a symbol of the West, and it represents the West, so to speak. Since geopolitical stability is foundational for global progress and development, the return of the Cold War creates panic as these wars appear to have no end.
Book Review: America’s Two Cold Wars: From Hegemony to Decline?
America’s Two Cold Wars is a thoughtful, logical, and highly-readable thought leadership. Dr. Hardy has masterfully brought to light an excellent overview of the USSR’s collapse and China’s emergence on the global stage. In addition, Prof. Hardy emphasizes how China is different as a strategic competitor compared to what we have faced with the Soviet Union over the years. Finally, he brings to light how different the United States is today than when it confronted the Soviet Union.
The book reminds us that the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States had ideology as its core underpinning element. So, as we evaluate the coming cold war 2.0, it is crucial to understand what has shifted and how has the ideology evolved—and what is the focus?
The book states that “Efficiency” is the defining element of the new Cold War. And that contrary to the comparative advantage enjoyed by the United States in its ideological contest with the Soviets, Prof. Hardy believes that the U.S. is poorly prepared for a competition framed in terms of “Efficiency.” One of the main reasons is that many of America’s domestic problems have been left unchecked for a long time.
The book also reminds us that in the final phase of World War II, a network of multilateral organizations, initiatives, and alliances began to take shape under America’s auspices. Through this network, the U.S. positioned itself at the head of a powerful hegemonic system where its legitimacy was sustained by consensual acquiescence. The spectrum of U.S. allies was as diverse as its capability to articulate the system on behalf of its Cold War aims. The question is whether the U.S. alliances and institutions will evolve in the coming years. It is crucial to evaluate this as the two decades that succeeded the end of WWII represented the golden age of America’s foreign policy. So the question is, what will be the U.S. influence in the coming years? It is especially fundamental to understand that America’s foreign policy consistency is inexistent today.
The book brings to light the harsh reality that China accounts for twenty-five percent of the global industrial output. It contributes around one-third of the world’s economic growth. It will surpass America’s GDP in absolute terms in a few years, while it already did so in Purchasing Power Parity. After 2030 it is estimated that a gap will begin accruing on China’s behalf who; by mid-century, it could attain a GDP three times larger than that of America. Hence, China’s possibility of outspending U.S. military budgets at will is likely going to be real.
The book also reminds us that the U.S. emerged from WWII as the world’s wealthiest and most powerful nation. However, today, when every country is trying to globalize its values, culture, and heritage, the question remains whether America will be able to see or maintain its protection through its desired values. It is especially concerning as Prof. Hardy reminds us that the United States had the wind on its back during the first Cold War, with all the right configuration of elements supporting it. Today, the playing field is not conducive for America, and nor is the consistency of purpose clear. Moreover, the support base is faltering, as true allies are scarce, and its credibility among them has reached a historical low. The consistency of purpose is weak, as its political parties inhabit different foreign policy planets and its society is utterly polarized. It is a perfect storm. This important book is a must-read and should be at the forefront of our Foreign Policy and International Relations Strategy.
Now is the time to understand America’s Growing Wars and evaluate whether America is in Decline!
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About the Guest
ALFREDO TORO HARDY is a Venezuelan retired diplomat, scholar, and author. He has a Ph.D. in International Relations from the Geneva School of Diplomacy and International Affairs, two master’s degrees in international law and international economics from the University of Pennsylvania and the Central University of Venezuela, a post-graduate diploma in diplomatic studies by the Ecole Nationale D’Administration (ENA) and a Bachelor of Law degree by the Central University of Venezuela. Before resigning from the Venezuelan Foreign Service in protest of events taking place in his country, he was one of its most senior career diplomats. As such, he served as Ambassador to the United States, the United Kingdom, Spain, Brazil, Singapore, Chile, and Ireland. He directed the Diplomatic Academy of the Venezuelan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as other Venezuelan academic institutions in the field of international affairs. He is an Honorary Research Fellow of the Geneva School of Diplomacy and International Relations and has been a Visiting Professor at the universities of Princeton and Brasilia and an online Professor at the University of Barcelona. He has also been a Fulbright Scholar, a two-time Rockefeller Foundation Bellagio Center Resident Scholar, and an academic advisor on diplomatic studies at the University of Westminster. He has authored twenty-one books and co-authored fifteen more on international affairs and history while publishing thirty peer-reviewed papers on the same subjects.
About the Host of Risk RoundupJayshree Pandya (née Bhatt) is a leading expert at the intersection of science, technology, & security. She is a globally recognized futurist passionate about protecting the Future of Humanity. She serves in the C-Suite of leading emerging technology startups, actively applying her scientific background to designing systems. She has a Ph.D. in Microbiology for her 1986-1991 work on Hydrogen Production by Halobacterium halobium, for which she was also awarded a National Young Scientist Award in Biochemistry in 1988-89. In addition, she has done two postdoctoral fellowships, one at the University of Hawaii and another at the University of Chicago. She also did her Executive Education Program in Operations and Change Management at Rice University – Jesse H. Jones Graduate School of Management in 2000 – 2001. She founded Risk Group LLC in 2002 that evolved into a Strategic Security Risk Research Organization, Platform, and Community in 2015. She is also the host of the influential Risk Roundup Podcast on a mission to talk to a million decision-makers. She has already conducted more than 260 one-to-one interviews with top decision-makers worldwide. She is now leading the global discussions on emerging technologies, technology transformation, and nation preparedness.
Her scientific research has contributed to more than 30 peer-reviewed articles in top international journals. Moreover, her research across many other domains has contributed to more than 100 publications and is pursued to provide strategic security solutions. She wrote for Forbes in 2019-2020 and now writes regularly for Risk Group. In addition, she has published three Strategic Security Risk Reports and three books, The Global Age, The Quantum Threat, and Geopolitics of Cybersecurity. She is an invited speaker on emerging technologies, technology transformation, digital disruption, and strategic security risks from the National Science Foundation to leading organizations in the United States, Europe, and Asia. She can be reached at + (832) 971 8322 and followed on Twitter @jayshreepandya and LinkedIn @drjayshreepandya.
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