293 | Doyne Farmer on Chaos, Crashes, and Economic Complexity

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Sean Carroll 0:00
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Sean Carroll 2:21
Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Mindscape Podcast. I'm your host, Sean Carroll. Usually in these intros to the episodes, I will start with some big picture kind of question, narrow it down a little bit, and then eventually introduce the speaker who we're going to talk to during the course of the episode. It's ideas first and speaker second. And the episode that we have here today is also that, but let me do the intro first. in the opposite direction, because we have a very special speaker here today, Doan Farmer. His name is pronounced Doan. He says it's like the name Owen, but with a D in front of it, even though it's spelled like D-O-Y-N-E. Apparently some amalgamation of Irish and Southeastern U.S. pronunciations.
Sean Carroll 3:04
But he came to fame, in some sense, back in the 1980s, when a book was written called The Eudaemonic Pie, Those of you who are of a certain age will remember this book. It was about something that Doane and his friends from graduate school pulled off in the 1970s to win in Vegas. You've all heard of different stories of people trying to beat the house, beat the casinos in Las Vegas, either through counting cards or through high-tech apparatuses. And Doane and his friends, they were first. They did it first, at least the first in the high-tech world. Dolan himself programmed what we would now call a wearable digital computer, arguably the first of its kind, that fit into a shoe so that you couldn't see it. And they were not counting cards or anything like that. They were playing roulette. They were using a little bit of physics.
Sean Carroll 3:59
And if you're a roulette player, you know that the roulette croupier throws the ball around the roulette wheel and it spins several times. It spends some time spinning. So you could actually, in principle, time how fast that ball is moving and time the motion of the wheel and at least probabilistically, even though you wouldn't get it exactly right every time, have a better than average chance of

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