“It’s gonna be uncomfortable” — Australia braces for an RBA rate rise
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What is the upcoming RBA cash‑rate decision and how likely is a hike?
You're listening to a sharezies podcast.
Today on Shared Lunch, we're giving you a preview to a future episode featuring Victoria Devine. Uh we recorded this last week and Brooke Roberts asked Victoria about the upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia decision regarding rates.
the RBA cash rate coming out uh on the twenty ninth of s uh September. Right now it's four point three five percent. Uh I think ninety percent mark uh baked in at the moment that people think it will increase. W what should investors and savers think about that? How should they be thinking about their money when they've got this um potential rising cash rate, uh the budget changes? Yeah. How should they be thinking differently? I love
this topic. Like, as I mentioned before, for those who might not have been introduced to me, I run a mortgage broking business. I'm talking about the cash rate on a daily basis.
How will a 0.25 percentage‑point rate rise affect a typical $600k mortgage?
And I guess looking at the indicators that are driving, you know, the cash rate right now, markets are pricing roughly, I think it's like a 95% chance of a 25-bip increase. So it will go. go to maybe uh well not maybe it would go to four point six zero percent and all of the four major banks in Australia right now are forecasting a hike. So I don't like that, but you get what you get and in some way you're not meant to get upset. But we need to be aware of what that might mean for our personal budgets, for our investing goals, for, you know, our emergency funds. Like I think taking the cash rate from four point three five to four point six zero, like it's gonna be very uncomfortable.
And k mention that so it's uncomfortable.
What should savers and investors do when the cash rate rises?
So for savers, you know, their interest rates might go up. Um and uh for investors it might think, you know, then you wanna make sure that your investing is making a greater return than um what the bank is. But then there's mortgage owners, right? Oh, it like people that have mortgages where it's just like if they're on a variable rate, it's um it hits them straight away.
Well, if you look at it, um and I was having this discussion with my team yesterday, because of uh I feel like the broader market and if you're not intertwined into this, you go, oh, it's not that bad. But what does I guess a 0.25% increase actually mean for household income? So if you had an in Australia a six hundred thousand dollar loan is pretty standard, but if you had a six hundred thousand dollar mortgage, another quarter point increase is roughly another ninety bucks a month in your post tax income in repayments that you're making. on a 30 year principal and interest loan, depending on their actual rate, obviously in the remaining terms and whether the banks actually pass on that increase.
Um, and that's on top of the three increases that borrowers have already absorbed this year. So I don't know.
Why shouldn’t homeowners treat their mortgage as “set and forget”?
I this is where I've And I and why I keep telling people to not treat their mortgages as set and forget. Like you cannot control what the RBA is gonna say next Tuesday, but you can control whether you're, you know, on a competitive rate and the rate that's that's best for you and whether you're using your offset accounts effectively and whether your loan still suits you. And, you know, and working with a lot of people at the moment because we are in the middle of a cost of living crisis, like everything Is astronomically more expensive than it was. Like, what could we maybe do in the short term to take some pressure off? Like, do we convert your 30-year principal and interest mortgage into just an interest-only loan to take some of the pressure off in the short term?
Is it the best financial decision ever? Absolutely not. But like it's going to take off the day-to-day pressure so that you don't have to go into personal debt. to keep food on the table.
What short‑term strategies can reduce mortgage pressure during a cost‑of‑living crunch?
So I think that there's a lot of conversation like that happening. And that's why I'm like, how long have you got? Because I could go on and on. And like I just And like I
Yeah.
Yeah. We'll
have to wait and see what happens. But I agree, you know, it does feel like we're in that in that hike scenario.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What is the upcoming RBA cash‑rate decision and how likely is a hike?
0:00–0:55
2
How will a 0.25 percentage‑point rate rise affect a typical $600k mortgage?
0:55–1:45
3
What should savers and investors do when the cash rate rises?
1:45–2:52
4
Why shouldn’t homeowners treat their mortgage as “set and forget”?
2:52–3:46
5
What short‑term strategies can reduce mortgage pressure during a cost‑of‑living crunch?
3:46–4:05
6
What are the key takeaways and next steps for listeners after the rate rise?
4:05–4:13
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