From the Vault: The Devil You Know, Part 1
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What is ambiguity aversion and why does it matter?
This is an IHEP podcast. Guaranteed human. Lisa, tell them about our new show. We have a new podcast. It's called Don't Lie to Me. I'm Lexi Iwanu. We're two best friends, 22 years apart, but so close at heart. And I'm Lisa Di Giulio, the old one, which means we have wildly different references, occasionally different opinions, and at this point in my 50s, I've lived it all. Now in my 30s, being the founder of New Shoes, good taste is my business. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, this is Haile Breakman, Angela Giritana, Jeremy Culhane, Patrick McDonald. And we're the hosts of the Artists on Artists on Artists on Artists podcast. The improvised character comedy podcast where each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft.
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Hey, welcome to Stuff to Blow Your Mind. My name is Robert Lamb. Uh, today we have a Buffer Week Vault episode for you. We are gathering our strength. We are preparing for uh the October ahead, and we're gonna try and put out a whole lot of excellent uh Halloween content. So get excited for that. And today we're gonna let you have it with The Devil You Know Part One, it originally published 826, 2020. ninety five. Let's do it.
Welcome
to Stuff to Blow Your Mind, a production of iHeartRadio.
Hey, welcome to Stuff to Blow Your Mind. My name is Robert Lamb.
And I'm Joe McCormick. And in today's episode, we're going to begin a series in which we look at a phenomenon studied in psychology, economics, and decision theory, which is called ambiguity aversion. Ambiguity aversion is when we prefer risks with known probabilities over risks with unknown probabilities, even if you have no reason for thinking that the unknown risks will be worse than the known risks. And we'll get to some concrete examples and foundational research on this in a bit. Uh, but to an approximation, a good way to think about this.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What is ambiguity aversion and why does it matter?
0:00–8:19
2
How does the Ellsberg paradox illustrate ambiguity aversion?
8:19–21:58
3
What experimental evidence supports the existence of ambiguity aversion?
21:58–36:08
4
How does ambiguity aversion differ from risk in decision‑making?
36:08–50:20
5
What is madman theory and how does it exploit ambiguity aversion?
50:20–1:05:41
6
How have leaders historically used madman theory in international negotiations?
1:05:41–1:09:52