Chapter 1: Why is the Democratic Party losing voters across the country?
A new study shows the Democratic Party absolutely bleeding voters. Plus, Gavin Newsom is making his 2028 run. And for some reason, Cracker Barrel is changing its logo. But first, right now on Daily Wire Plus, stream brand new episodes of The Secret Vatican Files. Be here for the premiere of The Isabel Brown Show on September 8th.
And don't miss the decade of the Daily Wire anniversary special coming soon. Plus, so much more. Here's why you should do it now. You'll save 40% on new annual memberships when you join today. Use code SUMMER at dailywireplus.com. Well, President Trump has basically broken the Democratic Party at this point, and that is not just a matter of opinion.
That is a matter of actual voter registration fact. There's a fascinating new piece out from The New York Times by Shane Goldmacher and Jonah Smith all about the Democratic Party facing what they are calling a voter registration crisis.
Now, of course, the New York Times, a very left-wing publication, but when even the New York Times is noting that Democrats have a massive voter registration problem, that means it's a massive voter registration problem, and the data here is good data. According to these columnists, the Democratic Party is hemorrhaging voters long before they even go to the polls.
Of the 30 states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between 2020 and 2024, often by a lot. That four-year swing toward the Republicans adds up to 4.5 million voters, a deep political hole that could take years for Democrats to climb out from. So where is that happening? Well, it's happening everywhere.
Battleground states, blue states, red states, according to a new analysis of voter registration data by the New York Times. Few measurements reflect the luster of a party's brand, says the New York Times, better than voter registration. And right now, the Democrats are losing it. For the first time since 2018, more new voters nationwide chose to be Republicans than Democrats last year.
Now, I know that the tendency on the part of the right for this sort of stuff is to be incredibly celebratory. It should be remembered that in 2018, Republican registration outpaced Democratic registration. And then Republicans didn't do amazing in the 2018 midterms, and then they lost the 2020 elections. So things can shift fast, but Democrats are in trouble.
All told, Democrats lost about 2.1 million registered voters between 2020 and 2024 in those 30 states, and Republicans gained 2.4 million. There are still more Democrats who are registered nationwide than Republicans because California allows people to register by party. Texas does not, but the trajectory is really, really bad. So for example,
Election Day 2020, Democrats had an 11 percentage point edge over Republicans. And now that is a six point edge in 2024. Michael Pruser, who does data science for Decision Desk HQ, says, I don't want to say the death cycle of the Democratic Party, but there seems to be no end to this. There's no silver lining. There's no cavalry coming across the hill.
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Chapter 2: What factors are contributing to the Democratic Party's voter registration crisis?
This is month after month, year after year. This is true in battleground states like Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Top Democratic strategists say the party's nationwide registration decline is hidden in plain sight crisis that has to be reversed before 2028. In 2018, Democrats accounted for 34% of new voter registrations nationwide. Republicans were only 20%.
By 2024, Republicans had overtaken Democrats among new voter registrants. Now, one of the big problems here for the Democrats is that they banked on a multiracial coalition in opposition to basically white Americans. That was the way they did voter registration.
If they were doing a voter registration drive, they would go into heavily minority areas, just sign up everybody and assume all of those people were going to be Democrats. And it's not working anymore. That's not according to me. That's according to the New York Times.
Quote, for years, the left has relied on a sprawling network of nonprofits, which solicit donations from people whose identities they need not disclose to register black, Latino and younger voters. Though the groups are technically nonpartisan, the underlying assumption has been that most new voters registering would vote Democratic.
Trump has upended that calculation with the inroads he made among working class nonwhite voters. According to one expert, Maria Cardona, who's a longtime member of the DNC, she says you can't just register a young Latino or young black voter and assume they're going to know it's Democrats that have the best policies. So what exactly are they to do?
Again, they have a massive problem because that multiracial coalition is now growing on the Republican side of the aisle. This, by the way, is one of the reasons why the Republican Party should not move in the sort of identitarian direction that is being pushed by some on the right. Because it's very bizarre.
As the Republican Party turns less identitarian in terms of its voting base, there are people in the Republican Party who want to turn more identitarian in terms of the Republican ideology, which makes zero sense at all. Picking up Hispanic voters in Florida and Texas is a good thing. And driving those Hispanic voters away by sort of ethnic-based appeals to white voters is really dumb.
I don't think that's what President Trump is doing. I don't think that's what the Republican Party broadly is doing. But there are certain people in the Republican Party who are doing this routine, and it's really stupid. I mean, forget about being morally wrong. It is also incredibly politically dumb.
Right now, according to the New York Times, the Democratic Party has diminished appeal to men and younger voters. In 2018, Democrats accounted for 66% of new voters under the age of 45 who registered with one of the two major parties. By 2024, that number had dropped to 48%. So Republicans went from roughly one third of newly registered voters under 45 to a majority in the last six years.
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Chapter 3: How has voter registration changed from 2020 to 2024?
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And so you have Mayor Karen Bass, who's out there calling the homeless in Los Angeles unhoused Angelenos. But of course, she's a member of an ethnic minority. And therefore, what? This sounds better coming from her than it would coming from an upper class white liberal lady. It doesn't, by the way, to the residents of Los Angeles.
The Weather Service has issued the extreme heat warning in the region beginning Thursday through Saturday with temperatures expected to reach as high as 108 in the San Fernando Valley. These temperatures could be dangerous, especially for our most vulnerable residents, children, pets, people who work outside, unhoused Angelenos, and those with certain health conditions.
Unhoused Angelenos. I mean, this is the kind of radicalism Democrats have continued to embrace. Or how about Democratic Representative Delia Ramirez from Illinois? She actually makes the claim that deporting illegal immigrants is unconstitutional, which is insane, of course.
What is happening right now under the Department of Homeland Security is unconstitutional. It is actually unaccountable and it's against the law.
Again, this sort of radicalism does not play. These are luxury beliefs, as Rob Henderson has suggested. So what are Democrats going to do? Well, if they're smart, what they're going to do is they're going to campaign among the base as radicals, and then they're going to swivel toward the middle in terms of policy. And that seems to be the approach of Gavin Newsom.
Gavin Newsom is an incredibly calculating politician. Again, I think that his affect is quite smarmy. I think that when it comes to the way that he presents to the world, it is lizard person. However, what he's doing right now is smart. He is trying to present as radical to his base while going to donors and saying, actually, I'm kind of a political moderate. Again, that's a smart play.
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Chapter 4: What strategies are Democrats considering to regain lost voters?
They started losing money. They had to close a lot of their shops. They went bankrupt. I remember my wife and I used to go to a Bed Bath & Beyond pretty regularly. It was located, I believe, at the corner of Ventura and Witsit, if I recall correctly. In any case, their new statement is, quote, we will not open or operate retail stores in California. This decision isn't about politics.
It's about reality. California has created one of the most overregulated, expensive, and risky environments for businesses in America. It's a system that makes it harder to employ people, harder to keep doors open, harder to deliver values to customers. The result, higher taxes, higher fees, higher wages that many businesses simply cannot sustain and endless regulations that strangle growth.
Even when the state announced a budget surplus, it's built on the backs of ordinary citizens who are paying too much and businesses who are squeezed until they break. At Bed Bath & Beyond, our responsibility is to our customers and our shareholders. We will not participate in a system that undermines both. Instead, we are investing in a California strategy that works.
24 to 48 hour delivery and in many cases, same day service. Californians will continue to get the products they leave, they love through bedbathandbeyond.com. but without the inflated costs created by an unsustainable business model. We're taking a stand because it's time for common sense. Businesses deserve the chance to succeed.
That's why Bed Bath & Beyond will serve California customers directly through their website on our terms with their best interest at heart. Now, they are reopening stores in places like Nashville. So how does Nick Gavin Newsom respond to that? Because that's obviously a rip on his garbage business environment, which it is a garbage business environment.
We literally took our company, Daily Wire, from California to Nashville and Florida in order... to have a better business environment. So I know exactly what Bed Bath & Beyond is talking about. So what was Newsom's response? It was trollery, of course. He tweeted out, the company that already went bankrupt and closed every store across the country two years ago. Okay.
And then his press office, which is where he does most of his trolling, put out a statement, quote, after their bankruptcy and closure of every store, like most Americans, we thought Bed Bath & Beyond no longer existed. We wish them well in their efforts to become relevant again as they try to open a second store. So just ridiculous. I mean, I'm sorry, just ridiculous.
You were one of the factors leading to them having to close stores. And now you're celebrating that they're not opening stores in California. So Marcus Lamanas then responded, quote, Dear Governor Gavin Newsom, I thought that your post would suggest we bring business leaders together to understand how to improve the four pillars, friction of business and find a way to make it better.
One, streamlined regulation, consistent, simplified compliance rules across state and local levels. Two, balanced labor environment that's good for employees and employers. Three, litigation reform, reducing abusive lawsuits while keeping protection for workers. Four, competitive tax and cost structure incentives to come as opposed to disincentives to leave.
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Chapter 5: What changes is Cracker Barrel making to its branding?
So it's going to be fascinating to see if the Democratic Party can somehow recover from this death spiral that it is in. The first thing they need to do is abandon their racialist approach to American politics. It has been a disaster for them. Again, the Democratic Party took the wrong path in 2012 when Barack Obama won reelection.
He won in 2008 in his original election based on the idea that all Americans ought to be treated similar. No, no white Americans, no black Americans, just Americans. No red Americans, blue Americans, just Americans. We're all Americans. And then by 2012, it was, we're black Americans. And we have some interests. And then we're gay Americans. They have some interests.
Latino Americans will give each of you something from the goodie jar. And then we'll have a coalition. And that was the basic idea of 2012. And then he won. And the Democratic Party ever since has been unable to shake the belief that demographically they were going to win if they just kept appealing to growing minorities in the United States.
And then President Trump came along and it turns out that none of that held. Now, we should have known that that wasn't going to hold forever because demographics are not, in fact, destiny in the United States. Huge blocks of ethnic voters have moved from one party to the other over time. Blacks used to be Republicans in the early 20th century.
Then they moved over to the Democratic Party during the FDR tenure, and then even further during the 1960s. You saw the same thing happen with Irish voters, German voters, Italian voters, Jewish voters, actually. You've seen massive shifts based on the politics of the various parties. Ethnic voters don't vote as blocks, typically. They vote over time as individuals.
The most important thing in this respect has been the shift in the Latino vote that happened over the course of the last couple of election cycles toward President Trump. Can Democrats shake the idea that simply by making ethnic appeals, they will win? I don't know if they can. I don't know. It's a real problem for them.
The first thing they're going to have to shake if they want to do that is the sort of inside the beltway luxury belief culture that they have cultivated. And that means, for example, that they should probably let go of the idea that fighting crime is somehow bad. Already coming up, the Trump administration is just owning the libs when it comes to the crime issue.
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Chapter 6: How is Gavin Newsom positioning himself for the 2028 election?
Everyone in Texas is taking direction from a partisan White House. I love that Barack Obama is now suggesting that Donald Trump was the head of a partisan White House. Barack Obama's IRS literally targeted conservative nonprofits. Barack Obama's regime legitimately went after the little sisters of the poor He went after nuns to get them to subsidize abortion care.
Barack Obama suggesting that he was somehow a nonpartisan president is insane. Anyway, he says, given that Texas is taking direction from a partisan White House, that is effectively saying, gerrymander for partisan purposes so we can maintain the House despite our unpopular policies, ridiculous rat in the middle of a decade between censuses, which is not how the system was designed.
I have tremendous respect for how Governor Gavin Newsom has approached this. I have a feeling that he could find a way to justify any redistricting by any Democrats at any time, actually. I don't believe him when he says that that's only a response to Texas. If California decided to redistrict, to stop Trump's agenda, just on its own. He would do that as well.
But for the Democrats, again, you can see Gavin Newsom taking advantage of all of this. Is it going to be successful? I don't know. It might not be in the state of California, even if it is. Is he going to be able to reverse the fact that demographics are cutting against Democrats, that voter registration is cutting against Democrats? No.
But all Gavin Newsom wants out of this is the 2028 nomination. And what does that mean? It means performative resistance, and it means a lot of cursing. Here we go.
This is radical rigging of a midterm election, radical rigging of an election, destroying, vandalizing this democracy. the rule of law. So I'm sorry. I know some people's sensibilities. I respect and appreciate that. But right now, with all due respect, we're walking down a damn different path. We're fighting fire with fire. I'm going to punch these sons of bitches in the mouth.
So much verbal grind. It's like a teenage girl in a man's body. Take a lozenge, my friend. And meanwhile, as I've said before, the biggest obstacle to continued Republican success is not, in fact, President Trump's immigration policy or his crime policy or his foreign policy, all of which are excellent. The biggest obstacle is the possibility of an economic downturn.
And as I've said a thousand times, what do investors want from the Trump administration? What do they want? They only want a few things. Deregulation. We're doing that. Lower taxes. We're doing that. Predictability. We're not doing that at all. Every investor I know is kind of holding his or her breath, waiting to see what President Trump is going to do on a day-to-day basis.
And that's also true when it comes to the Fed. So there's a widespread sentiment that the Federal Reserve is very likely to lower the interest rates 25 basis points at their upcoming meeting. And that's probably what needs to happen, given the fact that inflation has really not popped in the way that many people thought that it would immediately after the tariffs.
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