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Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Chapter 2: What is the status of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding?
They were set by the president of the United States, by the secretary of state, by the secretary of defense and others, and not by me. So here's what a good deal would look like, a good conclusion to this war. One, no nuclear development. Two, no ballistic missile development. Three, no funding of terrorism abroad. Four, the permanent toll-free opening of the strait.
And five, finally, when all of those have happened and been verified, we can talk about opening up the Iranian economy. That's what a good deal would look like. What would a bad deal look like? It would look like the opposite of that. Continued nuclear development or the possibility of breakout. Continued ballistic missile development. Funding of terrorism continued abroad.
Continued Iranian tolling and control over the Strait. And funding going into Iran while all of that happens. That's what a bad deal would look like. So now we get to go through these factors one by one, and we will determine, again... We don't have the text. The minute we have the text, we can analyze the text. This is always my proviso.
But all we can do, because the text has not been released, is to read the tea leaves and the public comments and the media reports, the credible media reports of the coverage and what the VP is saying, among others. So here is what we know. According to Axios, on the nukes, the CIA director, John Ratcliffe, told President Trump and other senior officials that intelligence gathered by U.S.
intelligence agencies raised serious doubts about Iran's willingness to make the nuclear concessions the United States is seeking in any final deal, according to three sources familiar with those discussions. The Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, and the Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, have both expressed concerns and raised questions about the deal in internal discussions.
The source says the intelligence reflects the Iranian intentions are not in line with their commitments under the deal. Okay, so the White House is trotting out a talking point. Their talking point is that Iran has committed to no nuclear weapon. That Iran has committed in writing to no nuclear weapon that the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, will return to verify.
Okay, so let's be clear. Iran has already committed in writing not to develop nuclear weapons. They've been committed to the so-called non-proliferation treaty since 1970, and they've been lying for 47 years about all of this. As far as the IAEA returning to verify, they can say what they want. They said the same thing about the JCPOA, and then they immediately started hoodwinking the IAEA.
Here's the thing about agreements. Agreements, as stated before, are words on paper. They're only as strong as their enforcement mechanism. So again, back to the nukes. The president said originally no enrichment. That standard has obviously changed. President Trump told the New York Times on Sunday, quote, they were still negotiating over whether Iran would suspend its enrichment for 20 years.
Trump hinted he might settle for a 15 year suspension, but did not want to negotiate via the press. He also insisted that Iran would be forever limited to enriching at low levels that could never be used by the military. Well, that is not no enrichment, is it actually? Meanwhile, J.D.
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Chapter 3: What are the implications of the Iran Agreement on military actions?
Hezbollah is a part of the government because they are a terrorist group that has forced their way in, but they are not the military of Lebanon. They're a terrorist group holding the entire country of Lebanon hostage. Not my point. That is the point of this administration, including the Secretary of State. So if the idea here is that somehow this administration and the deal that has been cut
weakens Hezbollah. I'm not seeing it so much. I'm not seeing it. Maybe it's there. Again, we haven't seen the MOU for the thousandth time. We haven't seen the MOU. That's not because of me. I would like to see the MOU. I think you would like to see the MOU. Hell, I think we'd all like to see the MOU. But here is J.D.
Vance suggesting that Israel has been participating in the talks with Iran and that they expect everyone to honor the agreement. Okay, if Israel is not a party to the actual talks, which they are not, they have not been included in the talks. If Israel is not a signatory to the agreement, which they are not,
How in the world could you tie Israel's hands when it comes to self-defense in Lebanon while Hezbollah is firing rockets and drones over the border at Israeli citizens? But here is J.D. Vance. Does this sound as though this is somehow going to stop the Iranian support for terrorist groups like Hezbollah? If so, I'm just wondering how. They've been participating in this peace agreement.
They've been participating in our talks with Iran. They understand where our perspective is. And what the president has said is that we expect everybody to honor this agreement. There are always, Gail, these bumpy moments with these ceasefires. Sometimes someone will fire, and sometimes somebody responds.
We think right now that there are probably people within Iran, because of the Internet blackout, that are not even aware that this deal has happened. So we certainly expect the Israelis are going to be a participant in this peace process. But we think it's going to be good for them. It's going to be good for us. It's going to be good for the Gulf Coast coalition.
OK, I can just point out at this point, we haven't seen the MOU. The one millionth time we've not seen the MOU. I'd be a little surprised if the Israelis have not seen any MOU at this point, considering that the Iranians have seen it. And so has Qatar. And so is the UAE. Apparently, apparently everyone in the region has already seen it.
Shall we say that this is not a popular MOU from what I understand in Israel? And again, Israel, they were flying jets alongside American jets during this whole operation. Iran was firing at American soldiers during this whole operation. So playing halfsies is a bit strange. Coming up, we'll get to the Strait of Hormuz, what's going on there. Is cash going to change hands? How does that work?
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Chapter 4: How does the agreement impact Iran's nuclear program?
So release the text. OK, how about the cash? Remember, one of the preconditions to a good deal is we don't pay them while they do all this stuff. So the White House released some talking points, quote, the money Iran can access in the near term is Iran's own frozen funds. Iran wants a tens of billions released up front for nothing.
Full sanctions relief and reconstruction are tied to the final deal and to Iran's performance. The reconstruction plan is built and funded with regional partners, not by American taxpayers and unlocks only as Iran delivers. Okay, so there are two issues here. One is the immediate release of monies to Iran. The second is the so-called $300 billion reconstruction fund.
So let's start with the first one, the release of funds. If we release funds or if we tell our Arab Gulf state allies to release funds to Iran, it doesn't have to be American taxpayer dollars. That is us releasing money to Iran. You should recognize at this point that the Obama administration, when they sent pallets of cash to the Iranians, that was money that was quote unquote owed to Iran.
Hey, that was the Obama administration's actual argument is that that money was Iran's money and we had just unfrozen it. If you unfreeze money to a terrorist group, that is in fact money going to a terrorist group. It does not have to come from America. That's sleight of hand. It's rhetorical sleight of hand.
I was not earning the impression that you and I would be paying taxpayer dollars to go straight to Iran. But if we press people to release money to a terror state in order for them to continue to toll the straight and to exert control whenever they feel threatened, or for them to rebuild their ballistic missile and nuclear capacities. That is a gigantic mistake.
And playing a game where you say, well, at least it's not your money. It doesn't matter who the point of sanctions is to sanction everyone who is doing business with that is literally what they are for. It is not that America was doing hundreds of billions of dollars with Iran before we weren't.
We haven't done serious business with Iran here in the United States since the Iranian revolution of 79. The whole point of the sanctions regime is that it applies largely to third parties. If you unfreeze that, they get money. Okay, how about that $300 billion slush fund? Okay, so here's the vice president acknowledging a potential $300 billion slush fund.
Now we should recognize here, this would be with the current regime in place. And Mark Thiessen correctly points out that this is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for Germany while Hitler is still in charge. Here's the vice president.
The Iranians are saying that they're going to have access to a $300 billion reconstruction fund. True or false?
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Chapter 5: What are the concerns about Iran's support for terrorism under the new agreement?
It says, quote, U.S. secretly approved a financial and maritime arrangement between Qatar and Iran, under which billions of dollars were paid to Tehran in exchange for free passage for Qatari tankers and ships through the Strait of Hormuz. So in other words,
If this report is correct, the United States gave the go-ahead while this embargo was happening to allow Qatar to bribe Iran to take its ships out. What great allies the Qataris are. According to Israel Hayom, this was a deliberate and conscious course of action by the U.S.
administration, which allowed its Navy to turn a blind eye to the arrangement in complete contradiction to its declared policy. The move is intended to ease the crisis in global energy markets and curb rising oil prices. The secret U.S. approval, which the sources said was granted about a month ago, dovetailed with Qatar's interest in opening a direct channel of communication with Tehran.
Again, Qatar has been the go-between along with Pakistan. So you have an Iranian cutout and you have a Chinese cutout in Pakistan negotiating this deal. While the UAE and Saudi were being hit by missiles and UAV attacks, Qatar assisted Iran financially and remained completely protected. And now, a senior official...
briefing the assembled media, according to Adam Credo of the Free Beacon, this is almost certainly the VP, who is calling himself senior official for purposes of media coverage, said, quote, we are prepared to release frozen funds and we are prepared to release sanctions. And we'll do some small gestures of that in the beginning.
If they make some small gestures to us, that show they're willing to meet their commitments as well. So these will be kind of small antis to kind of see the cards, but that'll be based on performance. And we're going to get together this week and talk about that. Okay, so just to go back to the five standards of a good deal versus a bad deal.
A bad deal would look like continued nuclear development. A bad deal would look like continued ballistic missile development. A bad deal would look like funding of terrorism abroad continuing. A bad deal would look like continued Iranian control over the Strait and tolling of the Strait. And a bad deal would look like more funding going into Iran. So we'll wait to see the MOU.
I will say that the early returns do not look wildly promising at this point. Now, the administration, in an attempt to say that this is not like Barack Obama's JCPOA, because, of course, the president hates Barack Obama's JCPOA. That is the dumb Iran deal that Obama signed. The administration says this is way better than the JCPOA. The vice president, J.D.
Vance, says it's not at all like the JCPOA because the Gulf states like this deal. I'd love to hear that from the Gulf states when they are not under the direct missile fire of the Iranians as the United States prepares to pull out. There are all of these ways I could explain that this deal is fundamentally better for the American people than the JCPOA.
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Chapter 6: What are the expectations regarding the Strait of Hormuz in the Iran Agreement?
It was bad enough that we just unfroze funds that we had frozen. And then it says the JCPOA left Iran's grip on the straight untouched. This breaks it. Well, I mean, to be fair, the straight was not shut when the JCPOA was signed. And this does not, I mean, we'll see if it completely opens it. That's not what the Iranians are saying. So here, in effect, is one of the biggest problems.
If, in fact, this deal is not great, and we will see the MOU. We will see it. We've been promised it. We need to see it. If the MOU is not great, you know who gets a big win here? Barack Obama for signing the crappiest deal in modern history. Because now Obama is claiming that it just shows if they have to sign JCPOA 2 after bombing, it shows what a genius he was to sign JCPOA 1.
So here is Barack Obama doing that routine today.
It is doubtful that any agreement that arises is going to be significantly different or a significant improvement from the deal that we had in the first place and had worked for for a long stretch of time.
Again, that is going to be the case. And the case that he's going to make is that we basically have to leave Iran alone forever.
If it turns out that after bombing the hell out of Iran, we come to a deal that looks like JCPOA 2, there will never be the possibility of future action in Iran because every president who doesn't have the stones the President Trump had over the past 10 years, that any president is going to do what Trump did. Here again is Obama making the case for why conceding to the Iranians was good, actually.
In retrospect, it's a reminder that on a lot of difficult foreign policy problems, the notion that we can just bully our way or bomb our way to solutions may sometimes seem appealing.
But the fact of the matter is, is that taking the time to explore diplomacy and exhaust the possibilities of coming up with deals that don't solve 100 percent of the problem, but solve 80, 90 percent of the problem while avoiding diplomacy. the necessity of going to war. You'd think we would have learned that lesson by now, but it seems like every so often we have to relearn that lesson.
You know, when Barack Obama is triumphal, that is a good indicator that things are not going well, folks. Ro Khanna doing the same thing. Ro Khanna is, I mean, he's openly been basically calling for Iran to win here. Ro Khanna says the ceasefire agreement with Iran with the opening of the Strait of Hormuz is welcome news. Democrats should support it.
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Chapter 7: How does the agreement affect US relations with Gulf states?
Well, here was Jane Fonda rising up, singing out. All she was missing here was the North Vietnamese, the Viet Cong, anti-aircraft guns aimed at Americans.
The committee was relaunched last October to bring together the entertainment industry at this moment when our democracy is in peril. In the face of what's happening, we need our industry to be unified, activated and unwilling to engage in anticipatory obedience.
Well, she's wearing a glitter shirt that says resist on it. And that was some great singing. I will admit that the website for this thing is a little long. It's riseupsingout.com or something, which actually, when you put it all together, when you smush it all together, tends to read Rise Up Sin Gout. So it's an anti-gout foundation as well, which I guess is the important thing.
Joy Reid is also very upset. but is also singing. I don't know. Is this singing? I feel like there's not enough singing. There's a lot of rising up. I mean, there's not even that much rising up, right? I mean, they're just kind of talking to him. But there's a lot of rising up and not so much singing. Here was Joy Reid not singing. And it says behind her on a poster board, the world is watching.
But I feel like no one was actually watching. I don't know. Is there a guy named The World? Is it like World Be Free is somewhere watching? Who is watching? Anyway, here's Joy Reid.
ABC paid Trump to settle a bogus lawsuit. Paramount paid him. Jeff Bezos ripped Democracy Dies in Darkness off of the masthead of the Washington Post and handed Melania a $40 million documentary bribe for a film that nobody but the cult even watched. Trump, he himself posted on his Timu Twitter that my former employer did his bidding when they fired me. This is corporate media on its knees.
A handful of billionaires consolidating local stations, newspapers, national networks, turning American journalism into what they hope will become a U.S. version of North Korea.
You know what's hilarious about this is that she was fired from MSNOW before the Ellisons took over CNN or any of these other assets. And MSNOW is still run by a company called Versant, which is not a right-wing company. And they still fired her. So media consolidation. By the way, corruption in media Amazing report from Semaphore. That's Ben Smith's outlet.
Nick Kristof of the New York Times, a horrible columnist. You remember Nick Kristof from the dogs are raping the Palestinians story? Well, now it turns out that Kristof did not make a bunch of disclosures because he was supposed to make disclosures. whenever he wrote about the financial supporters of his campaign. And he didn't do that in at least a dozen instances.
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Chapter 8: What are the criticisms of the Iran Agreement from political figures?
On Wednesday, Trump said, I love the inflation. Now say it with me. Shut the fuck up.
Wow, so much resistance and lots of old white people in that audience. Lot of old white people. And then Robert De Niro says that he actually doesn't love America because America is an abusive spouse. He is a very, very rich idiot who says words off a teleprompter, but he doesn't love America because America hasn't been good to him in some way.
The phrase, we all love our country, stuck in my throat. Because our country isn't so lovable right now. I hate to say it, but loving our country is starting to sound like an abused spouse saying they love their abuser.
Why is it America? I mean, I guess according to Robert De Niro, Trump is America. Even if you hate Trump, can't you like the country? Julia Roberts showed up as well to praise Renee Good. Renee Good, of course, was the ice watch resistor who was in her car resisting arrest, trying to obstruct operations, drove her car kind of toward an officer, under disputed circumstances was shot.
Here's Julia Roberts doing her thing. And not enough singing. I mean, if I'm promised singing at Rise Up Sing Gout, then I want singing at the Gout fundraiser. Come on.
Renee Nicole Good is not a symbol. She is an American woman, a queer woman, who is doing the very best she could do to be good in an unjust world.
What does her being gay have to do with anything?
And I am honored to celebrate her life and her legacy tonight because the life she gave is our responsibility to carry.
Well, there was someone who sang, which I'm excited about, because frankly, too much talking, not enough singing at the Gout Festival. Bette Midler showed up. And no, she didn't do the last number from Gypsy.
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