Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Chapter 2: Will Gavin Newsom be the next president?
The way he handled COVID, the way he had everybody, he shut down John MacArthur's church and tried to and harassed them while he was dining out at a French restaurant with his friends without a mask. I mean, the guy is just, he's too easy a target to really make it once the national attention is on him. And I just don't think he's, look, I understand he's ahead in the polls. Anything can happen.
It's way too far away to actually predict it. I'm not making a prediction, but he's just not the guy I'm looking at. It's AOC who kicked me up at night.
is the question uh whether he's gonna win the presidency in 2028 or whether he's the democrats guy in 20 even just even start with just the nomination yeah because well among democrats uh gav i guess i could put this sword on gavin newsom among democrats has a has something that no other democrat has that i'm aware of on the entire national stage which is that he can actually talk to people.
Like he could sit down and talk to Ben.
Chapter 3: What civil rights issues are being raised for white people?
He can go on any podcast and have a conversation. And yeah, he's lying the entire time, but he's willing to do that. I mean, can you name any other Democrat at any level who could even potentially run for the presidency in 2028 who could go on, say, Joe Rogan and have a conversation for two and a half hours. Gavin Newsom could easily do that.
And again, although what he's saying is almost always false, everything he believes is wrong, and he's lying almost always, he's at least able to go do that in that environment. And he's not only the only Democrat in the field right now who could do that, he's the only Democrat in the last 20 years who has that kind of ability.
That's an argument for why, all things being equal, he has a good chance of being the nominee for the Democrats in 2028. I don't think he's going to win the presidency for a lot of the reasons that Drew just articulated. Assuming that J.D. is the presumptive nominee, you think J.D. would mog Gavin Newsom? Yes, I do think it would. I agree. I do.
But but then not that I know what mog means, but I think no one does. But the problem for Gavin Newsom is that like the obvious thing in the for a Democrat is that he's a white male.
Chapter 4: Why is there a desire to buy Greenland?
And in a primary like is would the Democrat voters be willing to say, hey, we tried a woman. And she failed. We tried a black woman. She failed even worse. So now we're just going to go back to a white guy because they're the only ones who can win.
Chapter 5: What are the implications of Denmark's refusal to sell Greenland?
I don't know that the Democrats are willing to say that.
So I'll say this. He is he is smoother on his feet than virtually any of the Democrats that I've talked to. And I've talked to a fair number of them. He is also. I think that there's a more than decent likelihood he's the nominee in 2028 because his chief rival is AOC, meaning that AOC is not a black woman. She's a Hispanic woman, actually.
And if you look at the Democratic voting base, particularly in the South, that is a heavily black voting base. There is no evidence that that crosses over to, quote unquote, the people of color category, a category that has never existed nor will ever exist in real life.
And you've already seen cases in which the black vote has mobilized behind a white person to stop another white person or Hispanic. So I would not be surprised if he's able to pull out the nomination. I will say that, again, the game that he's playing, which is a smart game, is he's usually rhetorically radical with regard to President Trump personally.
And with regard to Trump, you know, that makes you real popular inside the Democratic Party. But he's trying to moderate on a lot of the issues where he actually is most radical. Like in that interview, he suggested that he's cooperating with ICE, which I find very difficult to believe, shall we say. In that interview, he tried to pretend sort of moderation on the trans issue.
His state is not moderate on that issue at all. And that brings up sort of the second question that you're raising, Michael, which is how does he do in a general election if it's J.D. Vance? So, you know, obviously the number one question there is going to be how's the U.S. doing, right? If the economy sucks, J.D. 's got a real problem.
And I think everybody acknowledges that circumstantially, that's just the reality. As far as sort of head to head as candidates, I will say that my biggest question mark for J.D. is can he grow any part of Trump's coalition? I look at Trump's coalition. And I think to myself, Trump has maxed out in many ways, many parts of that coalition. What is the part that J.D.
grows that Trump was unable to grow? Because this was a fairly narrow election. If you look, it was a couple hundred thousand votes in a couple of different places and very, very high turnout because, again, people really, really love Trump in a way that, you know, again, that's not a rip on J.D. That's just a reality.
But you've been saying for a while, Ben, and this is something I totally agree with, that almost all of this is going to depend on. on the economy, which I think is getting better. I mean, even the Wall Street Journal, which has been hysterically depressed ever since the tariff thing comes up, is admitting that the economy is actually turning around and doing pretty well.
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Chapter 6: How does Gavin Newsom handle criticism of California's policies?
And when we dismiss that kind of thing, it ignores the fact that that's actually what Trump did. he didn't just replicate George W. Bush's coalition. He built an entirely new coalition where he went to low propensity voters who weren't voting and got them in his camp.
My guess is somebody like Marco Rubio drops some low propensity voters and maybe convinces some more higher propensity voters who voted for Mitt Romney but not for Donald Trump to come back. Now, again, I'm not saying that means that Rubio wins or that J.D. loses. I'm just saying that when I look at J.D. Vance,
i cannot see how if donald trump got 77 million votes in the last election cycle how jd vance gets to 79 million votes in the next election cycle very difficult for me to see that and that's a problem for republicans that's not a question just for jd that's a problem for republicans they should keep that in mind so when i'm saying gavin could be the next president i'm not talking about gavin because he's so intellectually superior and such an amazing can i'm saying we have now had a series of binary elections in which everyone
was kind of squirrelly about all the candidates. Then we came down to the final two and there were a couple of core bases who were like, yeah, I love it. And then a huge swath of the middle was like, man, this kind of sucks.
And if you look at the Gallup poll right now, more than 45% of Americans are now identifying as politically independent, not because they actually are, but because they don't want to be identified as either member of either party. That's right, yeah. But see, this is the thing. I mean, as you pointed out, Ben, Trump's policies eliminate Trump. His policies are fairly middle of the road.
I mean, I think some things he's more right and some things he's more left, but he's not a radical in any shape or form. It's just that our politics has been so radicalized that he sometimes looks like it. And I can't help feeling that you could pick up the Trump MAGA and present it in a somewhat more statesman-like way.
And, you know, I always feel that what the people are asking for is normalcy. They're asking to kind of get back to the way we're supposed to be. And I could see Vance selling that really easily. You know, I don't see why he can't do that.
The other issue, I see your point, Ben, that I agree with it, that MAGA is what Trump says it is. But I think where I disagree is I think that Trump actually has a pretty coherent policy vision, though it's often called incoherent or capricious. And you see this especially with foreign policy. Like, what does America first mean?
I was just debating some guys on this the other day on the Piers Morgan show. And there's some people who insist America first means conservative or libertarian isolationism. I don't think that's what Trump ever meant.
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Chapter 7: What strategies does Gavin Newsom use in political conversations?
I think it was Rubio who said that. And I thought, thank you. You know what I mean? Like you suddenly remembered that all this stuff that we hear like, you know, you're a racist if you don't open your borders. It's like, screw you. This is my country. I want to defend my country. It's a multi-ethnic country. It's got everybody here. I don't want to let in foreigners.
That doesn't make me a racist. And I just, I think this is the first time I don't hear us being accused of anything. They remember that we actually pay their salaries.
Yeah, there's something kind of funny about when Trump goes in and he says, we're going to Venezuela for the oil, which is not even exactly true. I mean, like we would be justified in part, but it actually does have a lot more to it and a lot more principle and everything.
And Ben, I think you make a great point, which is you can't quite tell exactly what this is or you could read into things because it is. There is a retrenchment that's going on. There's no question about that. That's what the assertion of the Donrow Doctrine is about. That's what Greenland is about.
And the question is, is the retrenchment a way that we can make sure that we're strong, we're not spread too thin, so that we can preserve American strength around the world? Or is the retrenchment this kind of surrender that says we just don't want to be involved anywhere else?
And I agree it's kind of ambiguous right now, but I just don't see any real American politician on the right running to say, I want to make America weaker. You know, that's the opposite of what MAGA literally is. Then you'd have to become a Democrat. That's right.
That's their actual platform. Gavin Newsom just tweeted something out about me that's hilarious. Okay. Really? Yeah, yeah. He tweeted out like, here's what Ben Shapiro is hiding. And it's like, Gavin Newsom gets Ben to criticize Trump's tariffs. What? What? Gets Ben Shapiro to oppose the invasion of Greenland. Stop the presses. What?
Gets Ben Shapiro to say that Republicans are going to have a hard time in the midterms. Man, well, that kind of, wow. Wow. They nailed you. You got mugged. Brutal. I got mugged.
You got news. Okay. Brutal. All right. Speaking of a very hard right turn, Matt, you, I think, you're defending slavery now. You want to bring slavery back.
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