The Best One Yet
🌎 “Pan-cession” — Global recession risk. Chipotle’s tariff-free avocado. Clocking out at 4:39pm.
Mon, 07 Apr 2025
Stocks fell 10% Thurs/Fri, now this trade war could trigger a global recession… a “Pan-cession.”Chipotle went on a 7-year journey to find a tariff-free avo… but it doesn’t exist.4 o’clock is the new 5 o’clock… You now leave work 42 minutes earlier, but with one big catch.Plus, the hottest new fashion product?... It’s the Nvidia CEO’s leather jacket.$SPY $NDAQ $CMGWant more business storytelling from us? Check out the latest episode of our new weekly deepdive show: The untold origin story of… 📱iPhone: The Device Steve Jobs Didn’t Want to Build. Subscribe to The Best Idea Yet: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinks to listen.“The Best Idea Yet”: The untold origin stories of the products you’re obsessed with — From the McDonald’s Happy Meal to Birkenstock’s sandal to Nintendo’s Susper Mario Brothers to Sriracha. New 45-minute episodes drop weekly.—-----------------------------------------------------Subscribe to our new (2nd) show… The Best Idea Yet: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinksEpisodes drop weekly. It’s The Best Idea Yet.GET ON THE POD: Submit a shoutout or fact: https://tboypod.com/shoutouts FOR MORE NICK & JACK: Newsletter: https://tboypod.com/newsletter Connect with Nick: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-martell/ Connect with Jack: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-crivici-kramer/ SOCIALS:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tboypod TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tboypodYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@tboypod Anything else: https://tboypod.com/ Subscribe to our new (2nd) show… The Best Idea Yet: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinksEpisodes drop weekly. It’s The Best Idea Yet.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Chapter 1: What caused the recent stock market downturn?
The White House just announced new tariffs on Atlantis, the lost undersea civilization of Atlantis. Yetis, all joking aside, last week was the worst week for markets in five years. Poseidon, the Greek god of the ocean, has now put retaliatory tariffs on America. Nick, I said all jokes aside, we'll be here to cover all the news as long as this crisis is happening. But yetis, don't panic.
We have seen and experienced downturns before. Plus, we've got three fantastic stories ready today. Even if Atlantis taxes our seafood. Jack, three fantastic stories for the show. What do we got on the pod? For our first story, the trade war just caused the worst week for the global stock market since the pandemic. Everyone is wondering about a recession, but we're wondering about a pan-cession.
For our second story, Chipotle is actually the biggest buyers of avocados in America. They purchase one out of 20 avos that Americans eat. And Chipotle just finished a seven-year quest for a tariff-free avocado. And our third and final story, Americans now leave work 42 minutes earlier than they used to. We see you. 4.39 p.m. is now the magic number.
But there is one little catch to you leaving work early, and it's explained by peanut butter. But yetis, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. What a mix of stories today. Love the mix, Jack. The hottest new fashion item right now, what is it, Nick? Jack, it's not a handbag, it's not a sundress, and it ain't a cute top either. It's a leather jacket.
Specifically, a tech CEO's leather jacket. The leather jacket worn by Jensen Huang is now its own fashion category. It's like the Earl of Cardigan got a shirt named after him. Well, the CEO of NVIDIA now has a jacket named after him. Steve Jobs had his turtleneck, Zuckerberg had his hoodie. But Jensen only wears one thing, a black leather jacket.
In fact, demand for the Jensen jacket is higher than demand for NVIDIA chips these days. Want proof? Nick and I found 21 different retailers who now sell the Jensen jacket. Jack Victoria now sells a Jensen jacket for 97 bucks. Wilson sells a Jensen jacket for 92 bucks. The product description literally says, be the boss of the fashion world.
Now we should point out, Jensen may be the wealthiest guy who wears this leather jacket. As the largest shareholder of a $2 trillion Nvidia company, Jensen is worth $97 billion. But he's not the first. noteworthy person to rock a black leather jacket. No, let's sprinkle on some context, Jack. I believe Arnold Schwarzenegger in Terminator. Marlon Brando in On the Waterfront.
And Jack, how about, hey, the Fonz. Arthur Fonzarelli basically invented the black leather jacket. So besties add it all up and we're calling the Jensen leather jacket craze nerdcore. If you can't afford Nvidia chips, if you can't afford Nvidia stock, you may be able to afford in video fashion. Well, let us know if you see a dupe out there. Jack, let's hear our three stories.
15 years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in a dorm. They had an idea to cause a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is the norm. Jack Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50%, that's a fat tip. T-Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, cause we ready to go. We can't wait no more, so just start the show.
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Chapter 2: What is a pan-cession?
In fact, now JPMorgan Chase thinks the chances of a global recession are up to 60% likely. A pan session. Now, yeah, these are the last two pan sessions we've experienced were caused by, first, a financial crisis. That was in 2008. And then a health crisis. In 2020. But this one, this pan session, this would have been caused by a political crisis. Now, JPMorgan did hedge-
that the global recession would only come if Trump's trade policies are sustained. So Jack, technically, all of this could be resolved by a single press conference that Trump could hold in the Rose Garden, canceling all the tariffs. But in the meantime, your buddy at brunch may be going recession brunette. Check that hair color over there, Yetis.
So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies who are everyone in America? The American stock market depends on Berlin, Bangkok, and Buenos Aires. We'll explain. Yetis, here's a hero stat that might shock you. For the 500 companies in the S&P 500, 40% of their revenues come from abroad.
The S&P 500 is the stock market index of the 500 biggest public companies in America, and 40% of their sales happen in countries that aren't America. That's a lot of sales. And all these sales are now at risk in two major ways. Jack, what's the first one? First, countries are tariffing products that are made in the United States.
Harley-Davidson's, they're now double the price over in Europe because of these new tariffs. Second, anti-US sentiment is all over the world right now. resulting in boycotts of major U.S. brands. Levi's jeans, they are iconically American on Bruce Springsteen's butt, the perfect way for Canadians to protest.
40%.
And that's why the stock market tanked so hard last week. For our second story, back in 2018, Chipotle embarked on a seven-year journey to find the tariff-free avocado. Let's look closely at how Chipotle fared, because every American business faces the exact same dilemma right now. Free. Yet he's in President Trump's first term. He started dabbling with this whole tariff idea.
And that's when Chipotle realized, wow, we are vulnerable. Chipotle freaked out because, get this, Chipotle buys 5% of all avocados Americans eat. That's one out of every 20 avocados. We are consuming them at Chipotle. And 90% of America's avocados are imported from Mexico. Okay, and this is why Chipotle is extra freaking out.
Because apparently we've got a real big appetite for guac, bigger than you realized. Half of all orders at Chipotle add guacamole. Half of them. And that means Chipotle has to source 132 million pounds of avocados every year. So that's why back in 2018, when President Trump said, we buy too much stuff from Mexico, Chipotle issued a code red. Or is it code green? It's a code red.
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Chapter 3: How did Chipotle search for a tariff-free avocado?
Plenty of American investors do want to buy it, but China won't sell it. Jack and I still have an outstanding bid, although that is confidential information. Besties, please do not share that with anyone. T-Boy Quine, it's as good as money. And second, the chairman of the Federal Reserve is the most powerful six-foot man in finance.
Everyone's asking, will he save America from a recession by cutting interest rates? Well, President Trump has demanded the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as it could boost the economy. But he said no. On Friday, he reiterated inflation is the number one concern for the Fed, and tariffs are actually likely to exacerbate that.
As a reminder, the Federal Reserve is set up to be apolitical, so they don't take orders from Congress, the White House, or anybody. And finally, Minecraft the movie premiered over the weekend. Jack Black. Loves his video games. Yeah. Now, the Minecraft movie actually continues the trend we've noticed of movies named after commercial products. First, the Barbie movie. Yeah, yeah.
Then the Blackbird movie. Then the Pop-Tart movie. Now the Minecraft movie. Or as Jack and I call these, Com-Coms. Company comedies. Yeah, they're all comedies, aren't they? Yeah, they are. But our prediction for what's next, what do we think, Jack? The Kool-Aid movie. Yeah, Kool-Aid movie. If you know, you know. Time for the best fact yet.
This one whipped up by Jack and I because we got some Monday trivia for you. Trivia. There is one candy in America that originally took 27 hours to make. That's right. 75 years ago, this candy was handmade by a group of old German women over in Pennsylvania. And to make each individual candy, it took those frowns 27 hours.
So, besties, we ask you today, what candy was made by hand and took 27 hours to finish each single small one? Leave your guesses in the comments. Drop them down there. By the way, hint, you're going to overdose on them pretty soon. Next Sunday, actually.
Yeah, and the answer to that question will be revealed on tomorrow's show because it's also the subject of the next episode of our weekly show, The Best Idea Yet. Yetis, you look fantastic over there. Jack, you are looking fantastic as well. I'm not sure what movements you are doing right now, but I appreciate it. I like it. I kind of wish we got to go on a seven-year avocado quest.
Your Eldorado analogy was great. Okay. I mean, it was mythical. It was mystical. And apparently it doesn't exist. Yetis, remember to tell your buddies, H-Y-H-T-B-O-Y. Drop it when you're talking to someone today on Slack. That is how we grow the show. And try not to panic about the stock markets. Nick and I are suffering too. We've seen downturns. They've always come up eventually.
No guarantees, but we're staying in it. Yeah, hopefully Atlantis cancels the seafood tariffs. In the meantime, have you heard the best one yet? And Jack and I will see you tomorrow. And before we go, a happy seventh birthday to Yeti Avery Kenneth, celebrated over in Berlin, Massachusetts, with the best birthday yet. And happy 50th birthday to Microsoft. Wow. I can't believe they're 50 years old.
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Chapter 4: What challenges did Chipotle face in their avocado quest?
Chapter 5: How did the global trade war affect American businesses?
So funny thing, besties, Jack and I were talking about the story and like, remember every movie from the 1980s? Like Jack, there'd be a steel mill who would like blow a whistle at 5 p.m. And that was the signal that work's done. The boss says work is done at five o'clock. Jimmy Buffett says it's five o'clock somewhere. Even Dolly Parton talks about her nine to five.
Five has always been the number that work ends at. Five, five, don't round up, don't round down. But the new magic number is actually 4.39 p.m. More specifically, that is, in 2022, the average American clocked out of work at 5.21 p.m. But in 2024, it's 42 minutes earlier. That's right. The average American workday now ends at 4.39 p.m. That is 42 minutes earlier than just a couple years ago.
And that's all according to a software company that tracked 200,000 employees across about 1,000 companies. And nothing creepy about that. We all probably accidentally opted in. But 42 minutes over five work week days? That's three and a half hours a week that you now have you time. Yeah, it is the wildest part about this entire story, though. What is it, Jack?
Even though we're clocking out early, we are getting more work done. That's right. The same software company discovered that while hours of work are down, productivity is up, baby. Get this guy raised. Now, the software company measures productivity based on computer activity. I don't know. I guess keystrokes and mouse movement is correlated with work done.
But still, we repeat, we are now pumping out 2% more work in 42 fewer minutes. Tell Frank from finance to get off your back, right? Yeah, you got him that TPS report like three hours early. Carol in accounting left work at 4.39 for Pilates. but she already finished the presentation.
And the best part about this, the same tracking software also revealed a change in how you're getting all that work done so productively. The typical worker gets work done in sprints. You're now sprinting. We're all doing these 24-minute spurts of energy to get stuff done. We're pumping out the PowerPoint in 24 minutes. and then surreptitiously checking our social media feeds.
So besties, add it all up, and you're leaving work 42 minutes earlier on a Tuesday than you used to, and you're getting more done? There's actually a catch, Nick. Yeah, there is one catch. Although I'm very excited for this knit sweater you're going to get me, Jack. I'm very pro. Hey, where's my yak sweater, bro? Tariffs, man. Trade war, man. Come on, Jack.
What's the takeaway for our buddies over at work? Everyone is now a weekend work warrior. Yetis, the catch is that while you're working less on weekdays, you're working more on weekends. Wah, wah. The data shows that logins, slacks, emails, and Zoom meetings are all on the rise on the weekends.
You're leaving early on Wednesday for the mani-pedi or the driving range, but then you're opening up your laptop on Saturday mornings. So we're checking out earlier Monday through Friday, but we're making up for it Sunday morning. That's right. Now, part of this is technology now enables it. Maybe you're using AI as well. And part of it is just offices are more flexible these days.
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