The Bill Simmons Podcast
Believe in Darnold, Burrow’s Playoff Shadow, Week 18 Madness and Guess the Lines With Cousin Sal
Mon, 30 Dec 2024
The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Cousin Sal to discuss Jayden Daniels and the Commanders' overtime win against the Falcons on 'SNF,' an updated playoff picture, and Packers-Vikings (01:14). Then, they talk about whether the Bengals have a real shot at making the playoffs, another sad Jets loss, a very tight MVP race, the Giants beating the Colts and drastically changing their projected draft pick, and more (28:01). Finally they Guess the Lines for NFL Week 18 (53:14), before closing the show with Parent Corner (01:17:09). Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Cousin Sal Producers: Kyle Crichton and Chia Hao Tat The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Chapter 1: What happened in Week 17 games?
It's the Bill Simmons podcast. We're going live on a Sunday night with Cousin Sal. Week 17 was a little crazy, not too crazy. Week 18 is going to be crazy and it's all coming up next. It's the Bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel. Super Bowl 59 is here and you can bet on America's number one game with America's number one sports book any way you want. Fun markets.
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Please visit rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available and listen to the end of this episode for additional details. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. Game problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. This episode is brought to you by Vrbo Private Vacation Rentals.
With Vrbo, you always get the whole house so you and your fellow fans can cheer on your team In peace. What's worse than watching a game with somebody who's not rooting for the same team you're rooting for? Nothing. But that's why if you book a vacation house with Vrbo, you know all the people in your house. They'll be friends. They'll be family.
Ideally, they'll be the ones who also root for my teams. Plan a winning vacation. Make it a Vrbo. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network, where I put up a brand new episode of The Rewatchables every Monday night, including tomorrow night. We are doing Friday Night Lights. The movie.
I tweeted about this from the Rewatchables account because it's on Netflix, actually, for the next couple days. But 20-year anniversary of this movie in 2024. And it's in the running for one of the best football movies ever. Some people think it might be first. We're going to talk about that and a lot more on the podcast that's going up Monday night.
You can watch that on the Ringer Movies YouTube channel as well. You can watch all the clips and videos from this podcast. on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. Coming up, Cousin Sal and I live Sunday night. We're doing it. Let's bring in Pearl Jam. We just watched Washington-Atlanta, and you lost your wise wager, which was you were 13-2 for the season.
You had Washington 24-and-a-half under, which seemed like when Atlanta was about to score in the last minute, you were going to win it. And then Raheem Morris was like, how many timeouts can I take into overtime? Turned out he had the wrong answer and Atlanta blows it. Rollercoaster ride of the game. Washington makes the playoffs. Atlanta is now in a lot of trouble.
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Chapter 2: Can the Bengals make the playoffs?
Nobody's going to care. Go ahead.
Yeah. We had the Drew Locke game today. You could feel it immediately. The Colts were in a coma. I don't know what happened to them. This murdered, I think, 80% of the teases and parlays that people made today because they'd already made all their bets that they'd already won. It's like, what do I do on Sunday? All right, I'll throw the Colts in something and the Giants in my way.
So now the Giants are four. Pats are one. Tennessee's two. Cleveland's three. And most important, the Pats are one. I was going nuts. I was going nuts. Why? I was going nuts. What are you going to do with it? We're going to trade down. We're going to get a fucking haul. I want to make that Carolina bears trade. Let's do that.
Let's get like, move back seven spots, get somebody else's first, get a player, get a second. Like let's, let's fucking cash that thing in. I'm so excited.
All right. I mean, it's not like great. If you have your quarterback or you, well, you're not out on may, right? You, you have your quarterback. So now you're going to trade it and you're going to get, you'll get something. I don't know. I feel like I say good for the giants. I really do. Like, I don't, I don't love the tanking talk. I think it's a bad word. It should only be used for the NBA.
This is one of the reasons, many reasons that NFL is infinitely better. But like, you know, half these guys are playing hard because they don't know if they're going to be on the team next year. Like Malik Neighbors is the only one safe. And Drew Locke gave him probably his best game of the year so far. So good for the Giants. Earn your paycheck.
I know it's easy to burn down the fledgling local tavern and collect on the insurance, but guys out there trying. I'd go for that every time.
Counter, this Giants season was so depressing that it was kind of hilarious that it was like, all right, we're the number one pick, just two more games. And then all of a sudden they have a fun three hours and completely ruin it. But you're right.
This is the difference between football and basketball is you can't really tank when in a sport with like non-guaranteed contracts where they change half the roster every year.
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Chapter 3: What is the current MVP race like?
Nobody in the last 40 years. We had Stan Heath, one touchdown, 14 interceptions. Len Barnum, 0 for 10. Randy Hedberg in 1977, 0 for 10. It's like an accounting firm. Who are these people? Wayne Clark, zero touchdowns, 14 picks in the early part of the 70s. Nice. And then Rusty Lish. One touchdown, 11 picks. So he's done something nobody's done in 40 years.
That doesn't sound like a quarterback name.
Rusty Lish?
You deserve what you get if you're drafting a Rusty Lish. I mean, that's not a quarterback. Collinsworth would have trouble with that one.
Oh, Rusty.
Rusty Lish or Pash Rush. Pash or Rush. Yeah. Yeah, the DTR, did he seem right to you? I felt like something was off. No, he seemed hurt. And I don't think... I'm making a joke. That's what we say about the good quarterbacks. Are we going to find out he was injured? No, I think he actually was hurt. Well, he's not good, but he was one interception. He had one fumble.
He had three intentional, three intentional groundings and a 20 QBR. And plus whatever you're saying.
Yeah. They, now that's a team that is tanking. They want to get a top three pick. They have a chance to get one or two. If one of those teams of Tennessee or the Pats. So they're like, we're not playing Jameis again. Jameis is too unreliable. He might actually win this game. He might actually beat Miami. We can't play him. Hmm.
I don't know what their plan is. I mean, they basically announced this week they're going to keep Watson for two more years. I mean, that deal just gets worse and worse.
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Chapter 7: What are the predictions for NFL Week 18 lines?
Yeah. What are your thoughts?
The only thing with that is I'm not ready. I feel like I'm not ready for this.
I know. That's why I didn't prepare. I didn't tell you to prep. I wanted to throw this at you.
Well, here's what could throw it off. I really think the Chargers want that five seed now. I think they're going to fight for it. They're in a good spot if they get that five seed. Of course you want to go to Houston now. By the way, if they get by that, I know the Chiefs, we're going to have to praise them. We have to. But that's not a bad deal for Harbaugh. They played him twice.
They lost by two. They lost by seven. What a thing that would be for Harbaugh to go into Kansas City and win. I think that's the ideal spot for the Chargers. So I think that would throw off a little. The only thing I would say about a Saturday night, I think they like an outdoor game there. They had the Chiefs Dolphins. So I'm not sure what that would.
I know that doesn't agree with Al's habits, but. What would it be?
We got to look out for Al. So Chargers, to get the five seed, the Chargers would have to beat the Raiders and Pittsburgh would have to lose to Joe Burrow in Cincinnati. Yeah. And that's the path. I wanted to, I was going to do this later, but I'd rather just throw this at you right now.
And I know the Ravens aren't going to tank week 18, but if you're the Ravens, just fundamentally looking at this big picture, we're trying to make the Super Bowl. If you're the Ravens, would you rather be the five seed or the three seed? Because if I'm the three seed, I have a home game against almost definitely the Chargers. It's either the Chargers or Pittsburgh home game.
And then round two, I'm going to Buffalo if I'm the three seed. I'm going to Buffalo unless Buffalo shockingly loses. If I'm the five seed, I play Houston. And I'll be favored and I should beat Houston. And then unless there's an upset, I'm going to KC for round two, who hasn't played a meaningful game in a month.
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