Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Are you ready for good talk? And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here. I'm in Scotland today. Bruce Anderson's in London, England, and Chantelle Hebert is in Montreal. But in today's world, no matter where you are, we're all plugged in. And so we're anxious to have our little talk because, as usual, we've got a lot to talk about.
I want to start with Jason Kenney, the former Premier of Alberta, who this week said Canada's got to get its act in gear because they're not ready. They're not taking part so far. In the discussion in Alberta, now the discussion revolves around whether or not there'll be a referendum this fall. It appears likely that there will be.
Likely on separation, although we don't know what the question is, which is always a part of the equation on these things. It's probably slated for October, but nothing's definite yet. But that's not good enough for Jason Kenney. He figures that the federal side should be involved in this discussion because the discussion right now is being led more or less by the separatists in Alberta.
What do we make of that sort of cry for help in a way? Chantal, you've got more experience with referenda than just about anybody. So tell me. Thanks. Certainly us too.
I wasn't planning to add a lot of experience to it, but who knew? I understand Mr. Kenney's point. I do think though that it's a bit, it's not early to for, and when he says that, I can't help but think Jason Kenney, former premier of Alberta, former Stephen Harper minister is saying, you guys in general at the federal level need to defend federalism.
I'm assuming that first and foremost, he has to mean his own federal leader. who is an MP from Alberta and who has been very silent compared to his usual capacity to prosecute just about any issue. There has not been the same amount of zeal on the part of Mr. Poitier or his caucus because Mr. Poitier also is the leader of the party federally that has the most seats by far in Alberta.
So one would presume that and I say this from the Quebec experience, that the first defenders of federalism in Alberta would be Alberta MPs and Alberta voices. That is the logic. I'm sure Jason Kenney did not mean...
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Chapter 2: What concerns does Jason Kenney have about Alberta's referendum process?
for Minister Mélanie Joly or for the finance minister who is also from Quebec to suddenly spend their time in Alberta arguing for federalism when there are so many able voices with democratic legitimacy by virtue of being elected to plead that case.
All of that being said, when it comes to the federal government, I think it's a bit early for the federal government to suddenly have what used to be called an operation unity. Why? Because a lot of things are in flux in Alberta that are Alberta matters. What has happened, for instance, to the electoral list of Alberta that was accessed by groups that shouldn't have
with people's names and addresses made public by groups that are associated with the separation camp. That is a serious internal matter that is not related directly to the defense of federalism. But it means, one, that there is doubt as to the integrity of the petition calling for this referendum.
Two, there is ongoing litigation in Alberta by First Nation groups from Alberta challenging the constitutional legitimacy of holding a referendum on separation under the current terms of engagement. So the process is basically stalled by the courts. And at the same time, it's a pretty messy situation.
So if Mr. Kenney means that the government of Alberta has not been up to the job of defending federalism, he is probably right. But you cannot supersede the government of a province and say, well, we're going to take over this situation. I know we will get back to that. What I found really interesting this week was the prime minister saying F and when there is such a referendum.
It will have to be held within the bounds of the Clarity Act. That's the act that was passed by the federal government after the Quebec referendum. There seems to be a misguided perception out there that this is a Quebec-focused law. It actually applies to all provinces who want to hold referendums on this. on separation.
And before anybody says, well, this is great, it means the federal government is going to be doing something about this. I'll just point out, and we will come back to that, that if this is where it's going, it's going to be a very fragile period for the federal government to be leading the argument on the Clarity Act against the backdrop of a Quebec election campaign next fall.
There's so many balls in the air on this one, whether it's, as you say, discussion about the Clarity Act and how it will fit into this, what the date's going to be, what the question's going to be, who's interfering, if anyone is interfering.
The RCMP seemed to suggest this week that there is no American interference on this, but there's clearly some discussion on what the Americans are saying or not saying.
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Chapter 3: Why is the federal government criticized for its involvement in Alberta's separation discussions?
I think that the notion that you can be a premier of the province and not feel as though it's your responsibility to explain just what would happen if this conversation about independence or separation became part of the discussion in financial markets around investment in the province became
a dynamic in terms of relationships with Indigenous groups and the challenges that would pose to the major projects that she and the federal government are interested in. The fact that she's not really doing that, I think, is an abrogation of responsibility and one that she should be held to account for by Alberta voters. I think Pierre Polyev is not anywhere near as active in using his voice.
The survey work that we did suggested that for that 13% of Albertans, typically younger urban and suburban people who are kind of on the fence about what would be the economic impact of separation. Pauli Ebb and Harper are important voices for them.
They tend to be conservative voters, not as categorically conservative or as far right as those rural older grievance oriented separatist voters in Alberta. They're on the fence and they do want to know what Pierre Polyev thinks about it. And they do want to know what Daniel Smith thinks about it. And they especially want to know what Stephen Harper thinks about this idea.
So all of those voices being Alberta voices should be more active in this conversation and should be heard from more. The last couple of things for me. You know, Alberta is typically the part of the country where we hear the most from knowledgeable people, especially in the business community who say investment is fragile. Investment depends on political stability.
It depends on a line of sight to regulation and government and its role in the economy.
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Chapter 4: How does Chantal Hebert interpret Jason Kenney's call for federal involvement?
And we shouldn't mess that up. And typically that's voiced as an expectation or a demand aimed at the federal government. Federal government is making it too complicated, too difficult, too uncertain about how to in terms of how to attract investment.
But this is a giant question mark that is starting to become more noticeable to the investment community at a time when most of the business community seems to be saying, well, we want to draw more investment into Canada. We want to increase our relationships with other jurisdictions.
We've got this investor summit coming up in September where investor pools from around the world are coming and taking a look at what they can invest in in Canada and It's a moment where businesses in Alberta really should be out there front and center, not waiting on a federal prime minister to explain the complexity of it. I'm glad that he did that.
But they should make an economic argument to Albertans about what's really at stake by letting this conversation develop as though there's no complexity to it, as though it could happen on the basis of a 50% plus one number, that it's almost as simple as, and it wasn't simple, as Brexit. I mean, Brexit was a country deciding no longer to be involved with other countries.
For Alberta to separate, I think Andrew Coyne kind of made the point pretty well, which is that anybody can decide to leave. You just can't decide to take it with you. This is very, very different, very complicated, and it needs to be discussed that way.
Okay, you've both raised things I want to pursue, but first of all on that one, on private companies, why would they be kind of sitting this out right now? Why aren't they being more dominant in the discussion? What's their advantage to say nothing or very little?
Well, you know, I think that we see a version of this in the United States over the last several years where large corporations decide that they want to stay out of political fire, except when it's specifically in their interest to get involved. So they think that they have a fiduciary responsibility to say a carbon price on oil that would add essentially pennies to a barrel.
is a no-go situation, is something that would destroy investment interest in Canada, which I think is an exaggeration for sure, especially given what's been happening to oil prices. So they don't mind getting involved when their argument is the federal government needs to do something different to make our shareholders do a little bit better with their investment.
But getting involved in something that touches on that kind of – line of grievance that we see in parts of Alberta. And I don't think we should overstate how big it is. It's a meaningful size, but it isn't everybody. And it isn't a majority. It's a smallish minority.
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Chapter 5: What internal issues are complicating Alberta's referendum on separation?
who would then campaign not on we want to hold a referendum, but look at how these people are thinking that they can dictate the terms of how we debate our future, our political future. And that's why I'm with Bruce. The best case scenario for Mark Carney would be that this question is asked later or is not asked at all.
We're going to move on. But this topic is a classic Canadian topic. In spite of the references to Brexit and other referenda that have taken place in different countries, this has become a part of our lives, right, for the last 50 years, these questions. And now with Alberta, I just ask one quick one here.
There's a sense of does the rest of Canada care about Alberta in a way, in the way that Jason Kenney framed his suggestion that Ottawa gets more involved. I mean, I remember in 95, you remember it well, how there were certain pro-Canada groups that came from outside Quebec, came in and demonstrated and sang anthems and wave flags and all that stuff at the end.
And you can debate whether or not that had an impact. I'm just wondering whether that kind of, you know, like a train from central Canada rolls into Alberta to wave the flag and say, don't leave. Is that kind of stuff? Would that work in Alberta?
Oh, by the way, it did have an impact. It helped the, yes, like this demonstration. So before you brought trains and flags, it's not... The notion that other Canadians don't care about Alberta or care about Alberta isn't measured by the number of people who would get on a train to foolishly come and talk about their perspective with little understanding of where the Alberta movement comes from.
But by the same token and in the reverse, treating the Alberta separation movement as just a bunch of clowns that should be dismissed is also terribly counterproductive. And you've seen it in action when Toronto voted for a mayor called Ford. What did the established voices of Toronto do during that municipal campaign? They basically said, this guy has a clown. Only dumb people vote for clowns.
What happened? So if you want to bolster the separation forces, just dismiss the people who are trying to get this question on the ballot as a bunch of hicks who do know nothing. And it will get you to a higher percentage of people who want to vote yes.
Do you want to add anything on there before we move on, Bruce?
Yeah, I think that the degree to which Canadians today would be interested, attentive to intra provincial rivalries is a lot lower than it was 10 years ago, a lot lower than it was 20 years ago. doesn't mean that there aren't divisions within our society, but they tend to be a little bit more along generational lines.
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Chapter 6: What is the Clarity Act and how does it relate to Alberta's potential referendum?
That Pierre Polyev thinks... in fast and carny acts in slow. And all of the evidence that I see from polling just doesn't look like that. You know, Canadians can want more action on some things always. That's a normal response in public opinion terms.
But I don't see any evidence in my data that people think, you know, the thing that bothers me about Carney is he seems to be kind of asleep on the job. He's just not really getting up and getting at it. And so I find it strange that he keeps on coming back to that argument, especially given that, you know, the pace of Pierre Polyev's political career changes.
has not been that accelerated, let me put it that way. It's been a long time that he's been in politics without ever having won anything that allowed him to materially change the direction of the country. The third thing that I saw he tweeted out, he said, Canadians want us to fight. That was the extent of the tweet. I just think that's a discordant note.
Other than the hard base of his party, I think most other Canadians are saying, well, that's not really what we want you to do. We want you to hold the government into account. We want you to participate in the debate. We want you to maybe throw in some ideas that maybe it'll bother you, but the other party might steal those ideas and implement them.
But the notion that people outside the political arena party membership really want him and the conservatives to fight, period, full stop. I just think that's out of touch with the time. So I just don't think he has a good feeling for how to make his case to Canadians. And obviously he did for that 87%, but he still seems like a fish out of water to me.
And he seems to be not making his case to Canadians, but trying to make his case continually to his party. To stand firm on his leadership. Chantal?
I've read the reviews of that speech to a very, or what should have been a very friendly crowd. And the words that keep coming back was flat, mood, all, except anything but buoyant, less attendance than usual, less of everything than in previous years. And that buoyancy was always present, even when the Conservatives were in opposition in the past. But there was no feeling to that.
And I talked about this argument that the Liberals want Pierre Poilievre to change, that he put to this room. And I thought, no, it's the people in this room who would have liked you to change. It's not the liberals. And what you're telling them is basically, not only am I not going anywhere, but I'm not going to change.
And that is left, and it's not just at that conference or in that room, that is leaving many conservatives to say, what can we do about this? And the notion, I picked up something else from the speech that I talked with Where is he going on this? That he is fighting to keep the elites who are taking over Ottawa from doing whatever nefarious thing that they are doing.
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Chapter 7: How might the Alberta separation movement impact federal politics?
that some elite that is divorced from all Canadians is in play on Parliament Hill. That frankly sounds more like a conspiracy theory than a leader articulating a vision for the country. So do I believe there is redemption for Mr. Poiliev in the short term? No, I think he's playing a survival game. And with three years,
I don't really see a terribly positive outcome for him if he keeps on harping with the same messages, Carney, Trudeau, Carney, Trudeau. People have tuned that out because it's not particularly relevant to anything important that is going on. And I had said that in the past, but it has increased over the past month.
increasingly the Conservative Party is led by Pierre Poilievre, is out of the conversation in this country, the political conversation. Jason Kenney this week, and we've just demonstrated that, was more of a part of the national conversation than the leader of the Federal Conservative Party who aspires to become prime minister.
And that's quite a statement to make at this point. Okay, we're going to take our final break, come back later. With the question I've been thinking about lately, I know you'll both kind of dismiss it as an irrelevant question, but that's my job. I just sit here and ask the question.
Between two golf games, we thought of this question. We're not going to know what to do with anything about it.
Yeah, okay. Okay, we'll be back right after this. All right, final segment of Good Talk for this week. Bruce, Chantel, Peter, all here. Let's face it, we've all been around, some of us longer than others. I was looking at that list of prime ministers of Canada the other day, and I was kind of shocked to realize that I've interviewed half of them in the history of the country.
Going back to Diefenbaker, he wasn't prime minister when I interviewed him, nor was Pearson, but nevertheless, I did interview him. So I got to thinking, when we look at the current prime minister, who's been there for a year, which is a little early to pass real judgment on, but nevertheless, it's a year he's been active and certainly in the news almost on a daily basis.
Does the current prime minister, Mark Carney, does he compare... I won't choose the word carefully. Compare, I guess, is all right. But is he like any of the other prime ministers we've had in the country? I don't mean in terms of their policies, but in terms of the job, the role, the being the number one. Are there any similarities between Mark Carney and past prime ministers?
There are always similarities. I mean, Mr. Carney's love of history, which is apparent every time he gives a news conference, brings him closer to Stephen Harper, I think, than Jean Chrétien. I think they both share that. But when I kind of turned, I knew you were going there, but I kind of turned your question around. You would have asked the same thing about Pierre Trudeau.
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