Chapter 1: What insights does Arash Azizi provide about Iran's political landscape?
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Hello and welcome to the Borg Podcast. I'm your host, Tim Miller. We have a gargantuan mega double pod today. In segment two, it is Jodi Kantor of the New York Times. She's got a new book out with Life Advice for College Grads. We also talked about some news.
And, you know, it's a long one today, but I'm telling you, make it to the end of the pod because it is a really moving discussion with Jodi about... her career and life advice for the college grad in your life. So do stick around for that. One more reminder, we got shows coming up in San Diego and Los Angeles, May 20th, downtown San Diego, May 21st, downtown LA.
Tickets are on sale, thebork.com slash events. I've got fun stuff planned. I threw out the idea of a t-shirt cannon yesterday. No promises. But you know where my head's at, all right? We're going to do a show for you guys. So please come hang out with us in Southern California.
But first up, I've been wanting to get this guy on for a while to educate us on what's happening in Iran and the view from Iran. He's a writer and historian. He's a lecturer at Yale and contributing writer at The Atlantic. His books include What Iranians Want, Women, Life, and Freedom. He has an upcoming book as well on Israel and Iran. It's Arash Azizi. How are you doing, man?
I've been wanting to do this for a while. Great. Great to be with you. Thanks for coming. We have a ton of news to talk about, and then I want to do a little big picture stuff on Iran as well. But first, for listeners, viewers who have not had the pleasure of following you on X or at The Atlantic, could you give people a little first date? What's your backstory?
Just tell us about yourself a little bit.
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Chapter 2: How does the Iranian regime leverage economic opportunities in negotiations?
tons of sectors, but that doesn't mean economy will collapse. One of my favorite things about all of this is that we all use these different terms, like the weakening of the regime, the collapse of economy. What does it really mean? If it means that people go out and there is no bread to get and they'll die out of hunger, no, that's not gonna happen. Right. Man is a country of 90 million.
It has tons of borders, different countries. It has different sort of resourcefulness methods. It will be able to keep something going on for nine years, just nine months. I mean, you know, and whatever blockade you have, the longer it holds, the more cracks they'll find. The blockade has been terrible, but. Is it terrible enough that something magically will happen and the whole place collapses?
That's not going to happen. Now, is it enough that they would put so much pressure on the powers that be that they'll either turn on each other or give unprecedented compromises or, you know, those things are possible, but also not so easy to achieve and by nature unpredictable, which is why... You know, it's very interesting. President Trump talked like he's found some genius methods.
It's like if he just comes and attacks everybody and kills all the leaders and put this, okay, they'll all capitulate. You know, if governance and statehood and warfare were so simple, everybody has big planes and they would just start it. But it's not so simple precisely because it involves all these little details and unpredictable consequences.
Iranian regime will not capitulate so easily and the economy will not collapse to the point of it, you know, the country becoming unlivable suddenly.
I don't want to put you in the position of being a, you know, petroleum engineering expert. That's not your background. But I just, from the people you follow, just on that, on the discrete question of
It seems like the blockade strategy is premised on this notion that the Iranians oil infrastructure, you know, that whatever the rigs will continue to get filled up to such a, you know, there won't be any room left and then the rigs will get ruined. And then, you know, future ability to export the oil and make money will be hampered. And like that is really the pressure point.
You know, I've seen mixed reports on the extent to which that is true. Like, what is your sense on that question?
I mean, I've read widely on different experts talking about this, and my assessment is that it's basically overplayed. Yes, it is a problem if you can't expire oil, but it's overplayed. It's not in this way. that it will be like an immediate game changer. These are problems that Iranians had thought about before. It's not like they had never predicted this could happen, right?
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Chapter 3: What advice does Jodi Kantor offer to new college graduates?
That's basically the entirety of what we know Moshtaba before he became leader is that, right? Is that they arrest people and they're like, the security forces took me and I know Moshtaba greenlit it.
But what I do know, based on speaking also to folks inside Iran, which I do, I mean folks in the security apparatus and regime, is that he clearly is giving some leeway to Qalibaf and others in the National Security Council to do their thing. So that's my assessment at the moment, that we don't know a lot about him, but he's not hands-on.
Even if he wanted to, I don't think he could force a decision on these guys who are actually running things from his little hospital bed. It would take a long time for him to become a supreme leader that actually is running things, if he ever gets to do so. And I think he might never actually be able to.
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You wrote maybe a month ago now in The Atlantic about how you were talking to folks inside that Internet access is totally shut down by the regime right now. There are some people that said to you that there were fears. I believe one of the headlines or sub-headlines was, don't leave us with Moshe Tabaq.
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Chapter 4: How does the Supreme Court's shadow docket influence legal decisions?
It's the United States. I mean, it has tons of other issues and problems, but it's not like whether it has ties with Iran or not is like a central big issue for it. But this is Iran's life really depends on it. This is the historic moment for Iran. One of the most historic moments in 2,500 years of Iranian history, right? It's how it could come out, crawl out of this.
And on one side, it could become a country that is integrated into the region, economically doing much better, it would be the biggest economic sort of frontier since the fall of the Soviet Union if it opens up. That's one vision. And I'm not even talking about democracy, but just economic opening. The other vision is fail the state, civil war, ruin the economy.
I mean, these are two extremes, and often it could be something in the middle. So Iranians really need some bold reasoning, and they shouldn't only think about, oh, well, Trump didn't give us all we want or not. The stakes are really high.
And if you know something about Iranian history, the stakes have often been high when Iran has been facing the First World War and the Second World War, through which Iran was invaded, and then other sort of grand moment, the Cold War. And Iranian leaders often have then risen up to the occasion to try to safeguard Iran's sovereignty. And that's really what we need right now.
And unfortunately, I'm not sure that the level of leadership in Tehran is up to the task. Why? I mean, besides the obvious, but expand on that. There are two answers. For so long under Ayatollah Khamenei, who was Iran's leader from 1989 until he was killed earlier this year, you know, he read Iran to this ideological Islamist vision.
You know, Khamenei, I always tell my students, the best way to think about him is not like Islamist fundamentalist. It's like hippies in the 60s. You know, he was this revolutionary ideologue who... came out with his very austere vision and he held power and he held on to it. And he was also, he was a worse mix of things, revolutionary, rigid, but very tactically cautious and almost cowardly.
So he wouldn't make big decisions. He held on for this grand vision that would never come true. So he really brought it onto the bad place. That's one reason. The number two reason is that there are, even though I said, you know, the regime does have some cohesion, but there are different sort of
factions with their own military and economic interests, and they really need to come together and make some bold sort of decisions, and that's not always easy to make. I am still somewhat very cautiously optimistic that this will happen. I think at the end of the tunnel, We will have American-Iranian normalization. We will have Iran's return to the global economy.
We will have Iran's regional integration. I think that's still the most likely outcome.
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Chapter 5: What role does John Roberts play in the Supreme Court's dynamics?
They basically, they're faced with a regime that has been trying to repress them, is super corrupt on its own terms, brought them international isolation, poverty, declining economy. I know to put the cherry on the top,
Iranians are kind of a very patriotic people, and this regime doesn't even sort of, and it has now understood and tries to speak more in the language of Iranian nationalism, but it has make them involved in an issue like Israel-Palestine, for example, that is not a core Iranian national issue. It would be actually very different if it was a regime that was involved in nationalist adventurism.
Iranians could see, but it's, and this is also hard for outsiders to believe, you know, Iranians had no clue about the Israeli and Palestinian conflict. Like if you ask people, you know, I'm an expert on this issue. I'm a Middle East politics guy. I'm always amazed. I talk to young Iranians, even though the regime every day has talked about Palestine for so long, they don't know anything.
Like they don't know what's the difference between 1967, 1948. They don't know because this is not a topic that they felt close to. And by the way, that's how it's very funny. People on the American left understand that about America, They understand very well why many Americans are like, we don't wanna be involved in Iran or the Middle East.
But they somehow can't understand that Iranians, well, they feel the same about Palestine, Israel, which is thousands of kilometers away, is not related to them, and it has cost them a lot. So this confrontation with Israel and the United States, has cost them a lot. So there is indeed a very huge gap for reasons that I said. And yes, Iranians are very diverse.
There is a very hardcore regime supporter that exists, 10, 15%, that really support the regime and they're the ones who come out. But the vast majority of Iranians are sick of these conditions, but they want what they call themselves a normal life, right?
Yeah, just one follow-up on that. What would the Iranian nationalist version of it look like? What would their concerns be?
I mean, that's a very good question, and it can have different visions, but I would say, if you look at long sorts of Iranian history, right, what is Iran's story?
Iran's story is that it's one of the only countries in the world to never have been colonized, but it's very strategically isolated, by which I mean, Iran is a country in a region full of either Arabs, Turks, or Sunni Muslims, and Iran is neither of this, right? It's a Shia-majority country, and it has a mixed population, It has its own sort of civilization.
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Chapter 6: How do current events shape public perception of Iran?
But because politics is now done on Instagram and Twitter all the time, Israeli leaders talk about Erdogan and Turkey as if this is like some crazy Islamist state like that is trying to destroy Israel every day. It's just not true. So why would you, and if you look at Israeli history, it was anything but, it was the exact opposite. Israeli diplomats
you know, they would go talk to a country which had said 80% anti-Israel things, 20% moderate things. They would latch on those 20% things and also thank you and they'll try to expand ties on that. From that, you've gone to a place where Israel is, you know, impervious to Saudi Arabia, to Turkey, to others.
So I think it's a very concerning situation and that has potential with kind of, there is also nationalist radicalization in Israel as potential for further clashes. I am hopeful though that the next government in Israel After Netanyahu, it would be more focused on Israel.
It would try to sort of put an end to Netanyahu and in sort of pragmatic grasping of its own national interest, will try to make pragmatic dealings with different regimes in the region. And there I think it's entirely possible, you know, to get to some sort of a peaceful settlement of major nations. and state conflicts.
And for Israel, finally, you know, it would be the real fulfillment of the Zionist dream in a way. For Israel to become a country, define its borders, recognized by other countries in the region. Israel has never been a better place to bring that about. But it needs to do something about the occupation of Palestine.
He needs to do something with the fact that the state of Palestine is recognized now with most countries in the world. And he needs to do something. You can win arguments on Twitter against people, but you can never convince the international community and everybody else that there are going to be seven, eight million people over whom you're going to rule, and you're going to give them no rights.
And that's just because it's defensive and you're going to do it for 200 years because this is the only way you can, you know, no self-respecting Arab country is going to be convinced of that in the long run. And, you know, even the UAE wouldn't be convinced of that. I mean, you know, they'll ignore it for a while, but it's not like they're going to actually endorse it.
So they're going to need to do something that will bring about a lasting solution.
I really appreciate this, Arash. This is very helpful and educational. The listeners do as well. And let's check in again soon. All right, man. Of course. Thank you so much. We'd love to be back. Thank you. Thanks so much to Arash. Up next, Jodi Kantor. Don't miss it. All right, I'm delighted to welcome a Pulitzer Prize winning investigative reporter at the New York Times in 2017.
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Chapter 7: What are the implications of Zionism in contemporary discussions?
And she's been such an interesting character on the court, right? And she gets nominated. And the rhetoric about her from progressive opponents was like, basically, this is Handmaid's Tale type situation with Amy Coney Barrett. And now that she's got on the court and she's had a couple of decisions that went against what Trump wanted. And now you have the MAGA folks.
A lot of really nasty stuff about her out there from the MAGA, right? What did you make of her when you were writing that profile?
Oh, that she is a much more complex figure than anybody gave her credit for. And that kind of both the right and the left got her a little bit wrong. As you say, when she was appointed, there were a lot of caricatures of her, but I think the caricatures were both on the right and the left. It's almost like people saw a woman with seven children and decided they knew what that meant.
You know, the right thought she was going to be the savior who was going to complete the 50-year-old mission of the conservative legal movement. And the left villainized her, as you say.
And she has turned out to be, I think a year after writing that story, I think it's still fair to say, she feels like the most independent of the Republican appointed justices, maybe with a tie with the chief justice. But she has... shown some willingness to vote with the liberals, not on the big cases, generally on the smaller ones.
But there are a lot of signs she's trying to stride her own path to some degree as a jurist and, you know, truly wants a reputation as trusted and independent.
I don't want you to give anything away of your reporting, but how much are they all hiding from you? Do you have any access to anyone?
Oh, I don't know. Well, to answer that accurately would be to be God and to know everything, which I am. This is what I think. I think the justices are used to being in control of the narrative about them because they ultimately decide everything. what is in oral arguments and what is in opinions.
So they might say that they're like the most transparent branch of government, but they control how much we see. And so this reporting is meant to challenge that, just like in the classic spirit of journalists scrutinizing power. And it is coming at a time when they really are surrounded and under pressure as never before.
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Chapter 8: How can young people navigate the challenges of the modern job market?
You have to be like very fair. And it's really, these are serious charges. You have to give somebody real time to respond. So we have a big debate about how much time we're going to give him because we don't want him to take advantage of us or cause any funny business. And we finally do it over the phone. And we scripted it out beforehand.
And I read him most of the allegations that we were preparing to publish. And he hired a huge PR and legal team. And when you're being read that, your job is so obviously to stay quiet. Your lawyers are like, Don't say anything. And Weinstein just could not help himself. He responded a lot in the moment. He responded like even more in his official statements.
You know, as a reporter, you get statements, right? Like when you're writing something bad about somebody, they give you a statement. The statement he gave us is, I really have to say, a classic of the genre is, Because he referenced like his bar mitzvah and Jay-Z and there was like contrition, but also denial. And it was all mixed up with Weinstein's like statements to us personally. He, um,
he lectured Megan and I a lot about journalism in the course of this confrontation. You know, it's like going from like threatening us to telling us how much he loves the New York Times and can't live without it, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. So anyway, it was a very dramatic scene.
But, you know, even with all of that like drama going on in his response, what you're listening for as a reporter is, does he have any substantive challenge to our reporting? Like Megan and I are sitting there saying, we've got really powerful material here. We believe it. There's a lot of evidence. It seems really well-founded, but let's listen out for any problems, right?
Like let's listen out for anything in his response that causes us to rethink or want to check something we've reported. And there was nothing.
It's something really perfect about a man being told about all the ways in which he's abused women and done all these horrific things to women, then taking that moment to lecture two female journalists about journalism.
Oh, yeah, we were mansplained.
It was like right on the nose.
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