Is Canada Miscounting Its Population? Plus the Fed, Rising Yields, and Big Tech Capex
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Investing is simple, but don't confuse that with thinking it's easy. A stock is not just a ticker. At the end of the day, you have to remember that it's a business.
Just my reminder to people who own cyclicals, don't be surprised when there's a cycle.
If there's uncertainty in the markets, there's going to be some great opportunities for investors. This has to be one of the biggest quarters I've seen from this company in quite some time.
Welcome back. The Canadian Macro Investor Podcast. Daniel Fauche here from the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast and Simon Belanger joined from the Canadian Investor Podcast on which this recording appears on your stream. We're live once a week. Today's Thursday. We're usually doing it on Fridays, but summer, a long weekend, etc. We're going to see if Thursday's People are more, or this Thursday, people are more available. Anyway, what are we talking about today, Simone? I mean, there's a lot of stuff going on. Glad I'm not levered long. One of the one in 10 people in South Korea that's levered long the cost beat right now.
Yeah, the one index that's essentially dominated by two stocks. I think, I haven't looked recently, but just based on memory, I think Samsung and SK INX are like 50% plus of the whole market cap over there. Like it's pretty crazy, something like that.
Yeah, yeah. So that ended poorly. I mean, maybe a smaller percentage today than they were yesterday. And the day before that, it was like two, was it two back-to-back circuit breaker days? I don't think we've seen like volatility like that since COVID, right?
Yeah.
Yeah, exactly. I mean, there's been like so many like in South Korea that I think too many to count in the last month or so. It's actually up today, SKINX, 17%. So it's been super volatile. I think semiconductors in general, but we'll get back to that. We'll talk about quite a few things. So we'll go over population growth that may have happened that has been potentially undercounted. So Statistic Canada coming out with some information there. I know you've been reading on that, so you'll go over that. Some interesting news about Anthropic. using some of its clients' data potentially to build competitive products. So something about them looking into developing drugs, which is pretty interesting. Obviously, the FOMC, so what happened with the Fed yesterday, really interesting.
A big reason, I think, that the markets have been volatile yesterday, today as well. And then really interesting, i think the mark the bond markets are reacting and you know they're almost challenging kevin warsh so we'll we'll look at that a little bit more and then obviously we'll also talk about big tech microsoft and meta releasing earnings microsoft was up earlier that i checked you never know in these markets because like every time we do one of these streams somebody mentions in the comments like still in microsoft still in microsoft and then it does uh
But I guess it's still down. I mean, if you zoom out on the two-year, it's still pretty far down. But I mean, yeah, it was a big jump. Their earnings were good, I guess, or positive. And then Meta dropped. I think it had one of the biggest drops ever.
Yeah, Meta is down 9%. And Meta has been like... in the gutter for a little bit, like not doing all that well this year. Year to date, it's down 20%, but down 10% today. Microsoft doing well. So we'll go over that as well. So let's do the population to start with, and then we can shift into maybe the FOMC and then look at big tech and Tropic and look a bit more at AI since we've been talking quite a bit about it on this show.
Sure.
Yeah, so on the population side, I mean, CIBC has been beating this drum for a while, to be honest, which is basically that they feel that Canada is not properly reporting population data due to us not knowing whether or not people have exited. Now, the person in charge of this sort of department of the government, has come out and sort of said, like, we are aware that this is a problem and we have sort of announced our intention to fix it or to do something about it.
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:01–8:28
2
Is Canada undercounting temporary residents and how would that skew unemployment and housing data?
8:28–16:12
3
What evidence do CIBC and the Parliamentary Budget Officer cite about Canada’s population reporting issues?
16:12–35:44
4
How could undercounted population figures change mortgage delinquency and renewal-wall forecasts?
35:44–1:13:06
Speakers
3 identifiedMore from The Canadian Investor
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