Why the Iran War Won’t End Soon (w/ Alastair Crooke) | TCHR
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Why did Donald Trump cancel the planned large‑scale attack on Iran?
Donald Trump has canceled a planned large scale military attack on Iran. This cancellation follows reports that the U.S. has expended large quantities of critical munitions since the war began on february twenty eighth. These depletions include tomahawk long range missiles that are fired from sea at ground targets of the estimated three thousand tomahawks in the U.S. Arsenal one thousand. Have apparently been used. Some 1,100 Jassam air launched long range missiles out of about 4,000. Have also been used in the war some forty to seventy PRSM ground launchers. Long range missiles, of which the US only had ninety in its stockpile, have been fired on Iran virtually exhausting the entire inventory. The ship launch ballistic SM three missile, which cost twenty eight million dollars, numbered around four hundred ten before the war, the US may have used as many as two hundred and fifty.
The SM six also ship launched is used to intercept aircraft and cruise missiles somewhere between one hundred ninety and three hundred seventy have been used from a stockpile of one thousand one hundred and sixty. Of the sum three hundred. three hundred and sixty Thad anti ballistic missile systems as many as two hundred and ninety have been fired on Iran, and finally of the estimated two thousand three hundred Patriot missiles, between one thousand sixty and one thousand four hundred and thirty have been expended. The depletion of vital weapon systems is not the only problem facing the Trump administration. But also the strategic the depletion of the strategic petroleum oil reserve. Bank of America Global Research shows that the level of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest level since nineteen eighty three, leaving the country with forty three days of crude oil supply.
Add to these depletions the inability of the US to wrest control of the Strait of Hormuz from Iran and you have a war that by any measure the US can no longer afford to prosecute. Iran's FARS News Agency is reporting that an Iranian parliamentary committee is reviewing a preliminary bill that would bar US Israeli and other quote. unquote hostile hostile vessels from transiting the strait. Iran and Oman have uh which now jointly control uh the strait said they had formalized shipping routes through the waterway whose closure has triggled, of course, the global energy crisis. Trump's sunny assessment of the war is not new, nor is the walking back of apocalyptic threats to obliterate Iran, for example on A
April seventh. He threatened that a quote whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again if Iran did not immediately open the strait, and then two hours later. Later, before his imposed deadline he backed down, instead announcing a two week ceasefire. This pattern of threats and retreats has eroded Trump's credibility. It is distance and already skeptical Iran from any proposed negotiations. Iran assumes correctly it cannot trust anything the president says, and it also knows that the US cannot afford to prolong the conflict without suffering tremendous. Military and economic costs. Joining me to discuss the state of the current war is Alistair Crook, a former British diplomat who served for many years in the Middle East, working as a security advisor to the EU Special Envoy to the Middle East, as well as helping lead efforts to set up negotiations and truces between Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and other Palestinian resistance groups.
He was instrumental. In establishing the 2002 ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. He is also the author of Resistance, the Essence of the Islamist Revolution, which analyzes the ascendancy of Islamic movements in the Middle East. So Alistair, let's begin with where we are at this moment. As I mentioned in the introduction, uh Trump had threatened a massive bombing campaign. Once again, he retreated. Uh you have this agreement uh between Oman and Iran. Just set the stage for us if you can.
Uh certainly. I thought uh one of the things was quite striking. You read off this list of um missiles and weapons that have been depleted during the course of the war.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why did Donald Trump cancel the planned large‑scale attack on Iran?
0:10–7:27
2
How have U.S. missile and munitions stocks been depleted by the Iran war?
7:27–15:23
3
What impact has the war had on the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and global oil markets?
15:23–22:03
4
Why are Iran and Oman negotiating new shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz?
22:03–29:50
5
How is Iran’s missile capability and air dominance affecting the conflict’s trajectory?
29:50–36:59
6
What are the regional ripple effects of the war on Saudi‑Iran, Yemen, Iraq and the broader Gulf?
36:59–42:44
7
How could the closure of Hormuz and the Red Sea trigger a humanitarian crisis in the Gulf?
42:44–50:52
8
What are the possible scenarios for a wider escalation involving Israel, Palestine and the United States?
50:52–54:09
Speakers
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