Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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From The New York Times, I'm Nathalie Kitchela. This is The Daily. For months, President Trump has been ratcheting up the pressure on Venezuela with increasingly aggressive military actions that the administration claims are about targeting drug traffickers. But behind the scenes, some U.S. officials are pushing toward a very different goal, regime change.
Today, my colleague Anatoly Kermeneyev explains the battle being waged within the White House over whether to topple the government of Nicolas Maduro. It's Thursday, October 23rd. Anatoly, welcome back to the Americas. You're in your old stomping ground in Caracas.
That's right. Yeah. It's strange to be back. Yeah. After eight years of reporting from here.
Just tell me how many times over the course of your career as a foreign correspondent, you've been in Venezuela awaiting the theoretical end of this longstanding regime now led by Maduro.
Oh, God. I arrived in the country just a few weeks after Maduro took power in 2013. And I think I've seen at least six times, six moments when it looked like his government might collapse. You know, I've seen it all. It was mass protests, you know, millions of people in the streets. It was military coups. It was riots.
economic chaos, the deepest reception in the world outside of war zone and in modern history. There was a national blackout for a week and it just looked like the entire country might collapse. There was a stolen election last year and it's still the same government and power.
But what we haven't had before is the spectra of military action and military action from the most powerful country on earth. So a lot of people here believe that this time it could be different.
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Chapter 2: What military actions has the U.S. taken against Venezuela?
But it's the sense of siege that it has created in Venezuela, I think, and the expectation that this is just the first phase of a prolonged military campaign against the Maduro government.
You said that the expectation is that this is the first phase of what we're seeing. So what's the next phase? Like, what's the sense of what the eventual endgame is here?
So it's hard to know what is legitimate planning for next military steps and what is part of psychological warfare. We have to keep in mind that part of administration's strategy, I suppose, is to create this atmosphere and fear and tension and paranoia among the government of Nicolas Maduro and create a sort of split in his power structure.
But no matter who you speak to here in Venezuela, whether it's a street seller, business people, officials in Maduro government. It's clear to everyone that the final goal is to topple Maduro.
And this dovetails with what my colleagues in Washington are hearing from the sources that they are talking to, that the endgame of this pressure campaign is to bring a different government in power in Venezuela.
Right. Ending a regime that the U.S. has opposed for a very long time. Just explain why that's been the case.
So the standoff goes back to the time of Maduro's predecessor and mentor Hugo Chávez. He was a left-wing nationalist leader who became increasingly undemocratic.
Hugo Chavez has packed the Supreme Court and the army with his supporters and introduced a new penal code that criminalizes dissent.
This movement became increasingly antagonistic towards the U.S.
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Chapter 3: What is the internal debate within the U.S. government regarding Venezuela?
There's a dignified people here! The United States is expelling its ambassador.
And used the country's oil wealth to challenge U.S. dominance in the region.
George W. Bush.
You are a donkey, Mr. Bush. Chavez struck new alliances with U.S. adversaries. Iranian President Ahmadinejad is visiting Venezuela.
Chavez said that he's searching for a strategic relationship with Russia.
With China, with Russia, with Iran, he repressed pro-American opposition parties. And over time, the U.S. has responded with gradual sanctions, which were aimed at creating conditions for the opposition to win in a democratic way and change the course.
But then... A new day is coming in Latin America.
It's coming. This all changes during Trump's first term in power.
The people of Venezuela are standing for freedom and democracy, and the United States of America is standing right by their side.
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Chapter 4: How has the U.S. military presence changed in the Caribbean?
Marco Rubio is the son of Cuban immigrants who became part of this large community of Cuban Americans in South Florida who view Latin America through the prism of Cuban influence in the region. And they see getting rid of Maduro as a crucial step towards ending dictatorship. in the country that they left, in the country that their parents or grandparents have left.
And throughout his political career, Rubio has rejected negotiations with Chavez, with Maduro. And for him, the main goal has always been to see Maduro gone. And this time Rubio has a plan that he can present as the moral imperative.
And so what is the plan that he presents?
He is supporting Maria Corina Machado, the opposition politician who won elections in Venezuela last year. In the view of Marco Rubio and his supporters, they are working to restore democracy in Venezuela and to put legitimate presidents in power. But throughout Trump's terms, it's been very clear that the issues of democracy and human rights do not carry much cash with him.
So Rubio had to look for another weapon. He needed to present something to Trump that would catch his ear and would outweigh the economic benefits of working with Maduro. And he found the answer in drugs. Trump has, you know, spoke repeatedly about the drug epidemic, you know, the fentanyl crisis in the U.S. He has threatened Mexican cartels.
He has threatened military actions against cartels in Mexico. So Marco Rubio changes tack.
Maduro, they call him a dictator because he is and all that. He's not a government official.
What he is, is the head of a drug trafficking logistics organization, a cartel, the cartel of the sun. He starts to frame Venezuelan governments as a drug cartel.
And I've seen a lot of this reporting and it's fake reporting and I'll tell you why. It says that somehow Venezuela is not involved in the drug trade because the UN says they're not involved in the... I don't care what the UN says. The UN doesn't know what they're talking about.
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Chapter 5: What are the implications of the CIA's involvement in Venezuela?
He... flips the Venezuelan issue from being a struggle over democracy and human rights towards it being a struggle against drugs.
Nicolas Maduro is an indicted drug trafficker in the United States, and he's a fugitive of American justice.
He makes Maduro government part of America's war against drugs. And this leads to an escalation. Rubio designates basically Maduro's entire regime as a narco-terrorist cartel. And he supports sending all this military hardware into the region to threaten Maduro. And ultimately, this leads to the strikes on the boats of alleged drug traffickers off Venezuela's coast.
And we've covered this on the show. You know, it's still the case that the Trump administration has not actually presented any strong evidence that Maduro is a cartel leader. That's not something the intelligence agencies have agreed with. You're saying that Rubio goes forward with this strategy anyway.
That's right, Natalie. It is accepted that some cocaine ships through Venezuela, that Venezuela is a location for drug smuggling. But there has not been any convincing evidence that this is a hierarchical, organized endeavor from the top levels of Venezuelan government. But Rubio knows that this is a compelling political narrative.
Right.
And at the same time, Mario Corina Machado... is pitching an economic reconstruction plan, which in spirit is very similar to the deal that Maduro has been negotiating with Trump earlier this year. So in effect, Rubio is promising to Trump that he can kill two birds with one stone. He can...
topple Maduro and proclaim a victory in this fight against drugs and at the same time obtain the same economic deals that Maduro is offering him in return for staying in power.
And is that actually true that Maria Corina Machado would give up the same things that Maduro is offering? Like Trump could just get the economic deal he wants and oust Maduro at the same time?
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