The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
Old Guard vs. New Guard: Why the Rams & Jags are LOCKS
09 Jan 2026
Chapter 1: What insights does the host provide about NFL playoffs?
Hi and hello and welcome to the playoffs, my fellow football Americans! And to the analytics enthusiasts out there, with all due respect, please put the abacus down for a second and listen up here. I get it, some people love math. A lot of us grew up with Good Will Hunting and the Beautiful Mind Guy as Oscar-winning action heroes.
But small sample sizes be damned, of course postseason QB wins are a real stat. You remember in Fight Club when Tyler Durden makes the other Tyler Durden embrace the pain instead of trying to wash it away? That's the NFL playoffs.
The analytics peeps insist the performances of quarterbacks in the most critical moments of their careers don't much matter when it comes to determining who the best QBs in the QB league are. But then what metrics are we using if not QB wins in the big games? Their stats? Well, Cary Collins has more career passing yards than Joe Montana. Matt Schaub has a better passer rating than Roger Staubach.
I don't want to live in a world that says Emmitt Smith is better than Walter Payton because Emmitt had more rushing yards. Now listen, I know no one thinks Trent Dilfer is better than Dan Marino. but I'll bet you Marino would rather have had Eli Manning's career. Likewise, Eli Manning wasn't better than Tom Brady, but winning when it matters most does matter. Is it the number one thing?
I don't know, but it's way up there. The guy who gets paid 10 or 20 times more than most of his teammates is more important to winning, and if he loses, he'll get most of the blame. Sam Darnold knows what I'm talking about. Silly me, I assumed the ultimate point of every NFL season was to win it all and therefore winning postseason games is actually a terrific measure of an NFL QB's greatness.
In my defense, I've been brainwashed by Vince Lombardi, you know, the trophy guy, who said, winning isn't everything, it's the only thing. But you know, maybe the math dorks are right. Maybe we should just end the season around the holidays. Why bother with the playoffs and cold weather and heightened competition and the winner takes all standard? Who needs all that drama, am I right?
I like when the mathies insist you can't count rings as a measure of one's greatness. But here's the thing. Yes, I can. Listen, the inconvenient truth is this.
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Chapter 2: How do the Rams and Jaguars compare in the playoffs?
The majority of Lombardis are won by the teams with the best QBs. Here's the rub, so long as the NFL's brain trust continues its practice of awarding only one Lombardi per year, the math doesn't allow for every good QB to win one. And that's what makes it good. The pressure of singular moments. The guys who do win them are the ones who become enduring legends.
Ring your hands all you want, but this is how recorded history works. Of course, there are other factors, but these are footnotes to the main plot. Whatever happens in the playoffs, the great QBs are still going to be great. But when the debate is best ever, rings count. The titles are history's markers. They are everything.
I know ignoring reality is all the rage these days, but this isn't about how you feel. It's about who wins, aka the only thing. Let's start the playoffs. Let's start the show. Yes, hi and hello. Welcome to the Wild Card Round. Welcome to Football America. We're presented by DraftKings. DraftKings, the crown is yours for 14 fan bases at least. These are the good times.
Join us throughout this playoff ride. Subscribe, subscribe, subscribe. Spread the good word, would you? Download, listen, experience. wherever you find your podcasts, and on YouTube, Football America, plus Jeff Schwartz, and Jeff Schwartz is smarter than you, also available on that YouTube page, Football America.
Speaking of Jeff Schwartz, he's jumping in to help us make the wild card round picks. He'll be with us in just a second. In the meantime, it's episode 41. Mike McDaniel is now out in Miami. That makes, what, eight available head coaching gigs at the time of this recording, maybe by the time you're listening to it,
One or more of those has been filled by the guy or guys who got rejected from one NFL town and have now landed in another to play hero slash savior there. Quickly, Gino and Mike. Mike and Gino Fuentes, how are you? I hope you're ready for the playoffs, both NFL and college. The U getting ready at the time of this recording for their Final Four game.
But first, number 41, I'll just tell them to you real quick. Alvin Kamara wore it well, probably best even among NFL players. Brian Piccolo, star of Brian's song. Eugene Robinson, I think he was NFL Man of the Year. And then he got picked up on the eve of the Super Bowl for soliciting a prostitute. Tom Seaver wore number 41.
Dirk Nowitzki, Glenn Rice, Wes Unseld, NBA probably wore the number best out of everybody. meantime like i say gino and mike mike and gino how are you and how is everybody down there in miami with the news about mike mcdaniel i gather excited is the answer
Well, yeah, we all kind of knew this was coming.
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Chapter 3: What factors influence the outcome of the Bears vs. Packers game?
At worst, the third best quarterback in the sport? They never went to a Super Bowl together or have it yet. We'll see if the new head coach there makes any sense. It does feel a lot like musical chairs is what's going down with these teams. It does feel like McDaniel's going to land in one of those available
He's going to be an awesome offensive coordinator wherever he goes. He made a lot of players on that offense have the best seasons of their career. Tyreek, Waddle, Darren Waller was way better here than he was in New York. Aaron Brewer became an all-star center.
I said it out here earlier, the Detroit Lions looks like a nice spot for him. And also now they just ousted the offensive coordinator right up the road here in Tampa Bay. Baker might still have it. He has his running game guru thing. Bucky Irving's still a good back. Rashad White, not a bad receiving back out of the backfield. I don't think the Mike McDaniel chapter is definitely not closed.
I just read that he had a postseason meeting with Stephen Ross, and just based off that meeting, Stephen Ross said, you're done here. So what did he do in that meeting?
What did he say in that meeting? I don't know. Troy Aikman, though, is involved. Maybe Troy Aikman had some sway, and maybe we're not hearing all of those details. Either way, I'm still coming down as a Pittsburgh Steelers fan. I'm still coming down from cloud nine from the Sunday night game, maybe the most consequential regular season game the NFL has seen.
And it sort of makes a nice little circle about the opponent that they're about to face on Monday night football slash playoff game, the Houston Texans. The Ravens and Steelers resulted almost literally in, because of Tyler Lueb missing that kick, John Harbaugh getting fired. And I know people are being a little simple-minded about it. You say, oh, it just came down to one kick.
No, it's the accumulation of all the years running up to it and the season and missing the playoffs.
and making some decisions within those four quarters and it all amounted to that one kick and the kid missed it and so Harbaugh is out I don't think Mike Tomlin would have gotten fired had the Steelers lost that game but I do continue to say and I mean if they lose to the Texans and even if they beat the Texans it is still in play that maybe Mike Tomlin doesn't get an extension to his contract and this is his last season with the Pittsburgh Steelers the talk about the broadcast booth
Probably ain't going to happen, but I could see him bouncing to the Giants or to the Raiders or I don't know. I mean, shame the devil if he went to the Browns or to the or to the Ravens. That would be funny stuff. But either way, the Browns. most consequential game up until this point in the last three or four years was maybe when Davis Mills and the Houston Texans won that game.
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Chapter 4: What are the strengths and weaknesses of the Jaguars vs. Bills matchup?
Really? You think so? He should be. I mean, I think people think Strahan is more of like, the one that he won is more of a thing, you know?
You heard what Geno said, if you needed the reminder. He beat Tom Brady in the Super Bowl. Twice. He didn't do it one time. No, I get it. He did it. He's 2-0 against the GOAT in the biggest game. He's obviously got to get into the Hall of Fame. This is a ludicrous rolling discussion about whether or not he's a Hall of Famer. But I do think that if you hook them up to a lie detector...
Dan Marino can know deep in his balls, I know I'm better than Eli Manning. I think Peyton and Archie and Eli himself knows that Dan Marino was better than Eli was. I still think that they all, including Dan Marino, would rather have had Eli's career. He won twice. Maybe if you fluke your way to one, you make a case, I'd still rather have all of my achievements. But he won two Super Bowls.
I think I would certainly rather be Eli.
Lie detector for you right now. Arthur Smith or Mike McDaniel as the offensive coordinator?
Mike McDaniel. I like Mike McDaniel. I don't quibble about that. I have no problem with it. I think I've been nothing but a straight shooter with you about these Pittsburgh Steelers. But in the moment, in that fourth quarter... Dave was all the way in. I loved what I saw in the for that. I mean, these are like I say, these are unironically or other. This is what it's all about.
These are the good times. We've made it. Enjoy it. Lean into it. Yes. Big pressure. It don't don't be one of these people talking about like. Listen, whatever happens here, did you see his passer rating in October? It's not a conversation that anybody wants to hear. These moments are what it's all about. Let's get Jeff Schwartz in here and cut to the chase and start picking these games, shall we?
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Chapter 5: How do the Chargers and Patriots stack up against each other?
Six games total, that's it. We usually try to focus in on the most consequential games in the NFL weekend. They're all consequential. These are playoff games after all. In a pinch, he's jumping in. That's why he's our main man here. We had our guy Kevin Hench ready to go. but he's got some stuff going on on the side. We gave him a call last second, even it's later than 11.59.
It's like 11.59 and 58 seconds, but he's here to jump in. He's the host of Jeff Schwartz is Smarter Than You, and it's Jeff Schwartz. What's the poop, fella? How you doing? How you feeling?
I am good. I'm excited to talk to you. We have your Steelers in the playoffs. We have your Hoosiers in the playoffs. I mean, first time ever, right? A double-duo Steelers-Hoosiers playoff weekend?
I think literally there wouldn't be any historical cop there. All right, listen. Let's save the college football talk for the back end here because by the time most listeners hear us talking about it, they'll probably already know the results of at least one of those two games, maybe both of them. Let's focus in, like I say, on the wild card round in the NFL playoffs.
Start us off, Jeff Schwartz, real quick with who you think is going to be participating in Super Bowl 60. I'm already on the record, by the way. Broncos-Eagles 17-1 at last check.
Oh, man. I think the Rams are winning the NFC. That's the position I feel strongest about. They've got to finish games better. It's been a bugaboo of theirs this season. They have not looked terribly good the last couple of weeks, but maybe just end of season fatigue. We'll see. They have the easiest game this weekend, which is important. The AFC, Dave...
I've wanted it to be the Broncos for weeks. I've talked about them being the team. That buy is so important. It's so huge. One less game. They win one game, and they're in the AFC Championship game, right? It's that simple for them. The problem is I just continue to not trust Bo Nix. I can't do it.
And I can't believe I'm saying this team, but I think Jacksonville might be the best team in the AFC.
Yeah.
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Chapter 6: What are the implications of the 49ers vs. Eagles game?
Let's go. The Jags. Venga, venga. Come with me. I hated them all year. Now I have them in the AFC Championship as well.
It's pronounced, Mike, I don't know if you know this, but it's pronounced benga.
The V is like a B. Yeah, I was just making that joke to Gino, and I was like, should I even say this? It kind of connotes Pablo Escobar. I don't know if you want to be saying that around, but thanks for bringing extra light to it. I'm happy you could do that for me.
Well, we've just picked a couple, tipped a couple of our picks here. Obviously, Schwartz is going to take the Jags and I'm going to take the Eagles in the wildcard round. Let's jump. There you go. Let's jump into it and we'll start back to front Monday night football. I don't know how I feel about this spiritually.
I don't like a game of huge consequence being shoved into Monday Night Football, then a short week for whoever wins it. Then again, as somebody who is rooting for one of the two teams playing on Monday, I think this is kind of ideal. from a viewing standpoint. If your team plays the first game of the weekend and loses, now you feel like you got a gut punch.
I always think back in 1992 as a Pittsburgh Pirates fan, when Francisco Cabrera and Sid Bream happened to the Buccos and the Braves went to the World Series. I missed almost the entire great 1992 World Series against the Minnesota Twins. I tuned in late to Game 6 and watched Game 7 because I was too sick in my balls still that the Buccos had lost in such heartbreaking fashion.
If your team loses the first game of Wild Card Weekend, you feel like you're so sick you have to find something else to do with yourself. Now I can watch all the games in front of it and anticipate ā What if my team survives this weekend and makes it to the division around? You hear what I'm saying?
I understand that. But I think in this situation, you don't have to wait for a win. So you're in a good situation here for Pittsburgh where you get to just, you know, like you are you as a Steelers fan. Are you excited you won that game? I'm not sure you'd be happy to beat the Ravens, but now Tomlin's there for probably four more years.
You get four more years of Mike Tomlin now because you won that game, where the other coach got fired. He might have been fired anyways, but the loser of that game got fired. Now Mike Tomlin's around for a long time. I was looking at that. T.J. Watt has never won a playoff game. That kind of feels shocking to me. It's been so long. I don't know. The Steelers' voodoo happened against the Ravens.
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Chapter 7: What betting strategies are discussed for the wildcard round?
I remember in 2007, UCLA came to Matt Court. They were ranked, maybe even one in that game. And Oregon was in town. No, Oregon was not. UCLA was in town playing Oregon. My dad came up for the game. I was having back surgery too. So we were both there. And we went to the game, dude. And it was the most fun. And I thought I'd go in there. Maybe I'd root for the... No, you don't.
You root for your school. You absolutely do. So I think you would root for Indiana.
My particular childhood was spent at Pitt Stadium and Fitzgerald Fieldhouse. So was mine.
I went to every UCLA home game from the time I was five to the time I graduated and went to Oregon.
All I can tell you is I was way more nervous with, you know, at the end of the first half in the Ravens game, way more nervous with seven and a half left in the game, way more nervous with 55 seconds left and so on than I've ever been during this Indiana Hoosiers run. And yes, I was prisoner of the moment. All my larger concerns, long-term concerns were washed away for then.
And I think that they will return if the Steelers lose this game. All the talk about Mike Tomlin is now safely back for the next four or five years. I don't necessarily think that's the case. Let's see what happens. If they lose a home playoff game, they're right back and Mike Tomlin is right back for with all the concerns that existed in front of that Ravens game.
And so he may well wind up not fired like John Harbaugh, but may take himself out of the mix, however you want to couch it. I wouldn't be surprised if that's the way it turns out. Now, matter at hand.
texans pittsburgh steelers home team at the time of this recording catching three points total is 39 and a half whenever i think of the texans and the steelers i'm reminded of the ought to game the first in houston history their quarterback rookie david carr goes three of ten oh this is the whole game you understand i'm not talking about one quarter or one drive
David Carr goes three for 10 for 33 yards, whereas his counterpart, Tommy Maddox, in the weirdest Steeler season until this season, Tommy Maddox throws for 326 yards. Pitt runs for 128 yards. The Texans had 37 rushing yards on 26 attempts. The Steelers win the time of possession 2-1. Final score, Texans 24-6. It's the most impossible box score you've ever seen in your life.
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Chapter 8: How do the hosts predict the outcomes of the wildcard games?
Pittsburgh doesn't... Pressure the passer a ton, but when they do, they turn into sacks. It's either like a feast or famine type situation for them. So can they basically get after Stroud, right? I just don't know how you're going to score very much. I think it's a tough time to get in the end zone for Pittsburgh in this game. How many points do you need to win? Do you need 17, 20?
Do you think you need 20 points to win? You probably need help on defense to get there, give your offense some short fields. But to me, you never count out Pittsburgh as a home underdog in any situation. So last game of the weekend. It's not like Houston has a long track record of this team winning road playoff games either.
Well, the other thing is, too, I feel like even though they're the road team and all the rest of it, C.J. Stroud is the one who comes in with some pressure on his shoulders. He's got the curse of Sposta. And I know Aaron Rodgers does and Mike Tomlin does. But, man, I've been critical. I've been skeptical all through the season.
I don't think I've kept it a secret that the idea that a 42-year-old man is going to be a positive difference maker and carry the load for you ā For all the pressure, I mean, his literal career may well have been on the line. If they lose that game, the Steelers, I don't think Aaron Rodgers comes back to Pittsburgh. Maybe somebody else grabs him for one more year.
But I don't think his future would have been in black and gold. And they're down. and for him to play to deliver a nails performance like that was, I thought, pretty impressive stuff. With Adam Thielen and MVS as his targets, keep in mind, too, now he gets DK Metcalf. I know some of it is trying to be optimistic.
I already said the Texans have the best defense at minimum, maybe the best team in the AFC. In the here and now, though, I'm going to ride with ā with Tomlin and Rodgers for one week, and let's see what happens on the other side of it. Meantime, Chargers, Patriots. For these two teams in the playoffs, my mind goes to 2007 title game. The Chargers went up there. Phil Rivers had the torn ACL.
LaDainian, I don't remember what his issue was. I think it was his knee. He gave it one series and couldn't go. Phil Rivers played the whole game. They still almost kind of sort of pulled that game out. Again, rearview mirror stuff. Chargers liability is on the O-line, but the Pats ain't world beaters at rushing the passer. Patriots laying three and a half, total 46 and a half.
Schwartz, how say you?
I have the Chargers to cover this game. I just can't buy the Patriots with their schedule, man. They played three teams with a winning record, at least 500. They were one and two. They scored less points and gave up more points. Chargers definitely have some issues on their offensive line, but they're mostly on the edges, right? And that's not what the Patriots do on defense.
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