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The David McWilliams Podcast

China Is Winning, Trump Doesn't Know It Yet

14 May 2026

Transcription

Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.

Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?

0.031 - 21.609 David McWilliams

Today is all about China and America. The G2, the big two, are meeting today in Beijing. Question is, who is in the ascendancy? We're going to look at a little bit of Greek economic history. We're going to look at pre-First World War economic history. We're also going to look at rare politics from the point of view of today. That's all coming up.

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22.15 - 24.975 David McWilliams

America and China in a couple of minutes on the podcast.

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27.892 - 31.979 Unknown

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Chapter 2: What historical context is relevant to the China-America relationship?

31.999 - 50.929 Unknown

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55.668 - 80.734 David McWilliams

To understand the economy, you have to understand human nature. How are you doing there? It is time for the podcast. John is doing a particularly brilliant, maybe largely late 19th century Chinese imitation, which might not go through the censors filter these days. But nonetheless, we're going to be talking about China.

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81.134 - 107.688 David McWilliams

We're going to be talking about America, where we talk about the summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, which is occurring as we speak in Beijing. This is seen as the meeting... Of the G2, the two great powers in the world. We're going to tease it out. What does it mean economically, politically, geostrategically? What does it all mean for us?

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108.189 - 113.576 David McWilliams

So quite apart from your Kung Fu Panda impressions, which were particularly resonant there. How are you?

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114.037 - 139.588 John Davis

I'm good. I'm good. You know, I was wondering what the vibe in the room would be like as Trump walks in to meet Xi. Like... it's going to be really awkward. Because on one hand, you have Xi supplying Iran with loads of tech and missiles, apparently, allegedly. And then Trump choking China's oil by the Straits of Hormuz. By bombing the Straits of Hormuz.

139.708 - 158.166 John Davis

So how do they... I'm just wondering, like, you know how blunt and undiplomatic I can be. I just wonder... I do. Dear listener, you have no idea what it's like dealing with this creature. But I've just wondered, how do you, what's the opener of that conversation? Before it descends into a shouting match, you know?

158.346 - 182.256 David McWilliams

Well, I think you've put your finger on something really interesting here. And it really reflects how the world has changed. The last time there were two great superpowers sitting down together, unambiguous superpowers, it was the Soviet Union and the United States about 30 or 40 years ago. And I remember doing a documentary from Iceland.

183.217 - 203.479 David McWilliams

And it was against the background of the crash in Iceland and the banks failing in Iceland. But what really fascinated me was also, there was a little, so if you go to Reykjavik, tiny little city, beautiful, unusual. You have like the mad Atlantic Ocean out there, like the North Atlantic. And then you have this big mountain range behind it.

203.779 - 228.405 David McWilliams

And just nestled in under the mountains is this very small, very unprepossessing, City, Reykjavik. And in Reykjavik, just down by the sea, there is a tiny bungalow. Again, an unprepossessing, nothing outrageous bungalow. And in that bungalow, Reagan met Gorbachev on their own. There were two chairs.

Chapter 3: How do the leaders' meeting dynamics reflect global power shifts?

307.747 - 314.217 David McWilliams

You're coming kind of naked. Both of these great superpowers naked. And that was the way in which rail politic used to be done in the old days.

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314.237 - 315.439 John Davis

Yeah, level playing field and all that.

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315.459 - 337.714 David McWilliams

Level playing field. And, you know, basically, you keep your toys outside the room, you come in, and as two individuals who have been either elected or nominated as leaders of these countries, you begin to do deals which are in your country's interest. So that's the way in which, when we were younger, these big deals were done. Yeah. Now... It is entirely different.

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337.814 - 363.438 David McWilliams

Now you are basically arriving like a proconsul at the emperor's... No, seriously, at the emperor's table. And both emperors are sitting around. They're kind of being feted and, you know... Even psychologically. It's like at the meeting of the Dons. Yeah, of course it is. It's like the meeting of the Dons. But at least the Mafia Dons had probably a neutral area to go and meet. Yeah.

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364.139 - 375.435 David McWilliams

But this has got sort of... Down the waterfront. Down the waterfront, exactly. But this has got kind of the supplicant and the emperor are the two macho guys. The theatrics of it...

375.415 - 402.435 David McWilliams

are highly suggestive of a fight rather than a compromise yeah whereas when you see that little Icelandic building and you see the fact that it was very very very bare and very plain and there were no security around the two of them just went in there did their thing and stayed for hours and again no cameras they didn't do the thing and then they came out and said okay we have a deal right they were called the salt talks do you remember those they were the nuclear disarmament but again

402.415 - 428.046 David McWilliams

That was the last time two big players sat down. This time, you might have remembered the last. Remember Putin was entertaining fellas on his 17,000 foot long table because he was afraid of the COVID. It's like a little leprechaun, little Russian, little Slavic leprechaun. Can you pass the salt? Exactly. So here what we have again is a show of strength. on both sides, right?

428.066 - 453.043 David McWilliams

The Chinese, it'll be in Beijing, probably in the hidden palace, all the hidden city, all that area. And with the Americans, it'll be Air Force One touching down and all that pomp and ceremony. So I think even at that, the chances of anything other than a Mickey waving fest are highly unlikely. But I do think then what you're pointing at is you have the atmosphere of the whole thing.

453.063 - 465.682 John Davis

Yeah, exactly. Yeah. I mean, like, what's China's view of America now? Because that's kind of changed... Well, all our views of America have changed since Trump has gone in.

Chapter 4: What is the Thucydides Trap and how does it relate to China and America?

1815.844 - 1832.845 David McWilliams

So Chinese state-controlled industry is capitalist in its essence. What it's trying to do is create infrastructure that China needs off which to grow. Because what the Chinese understood is that

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1833.348 - 1856.976 David McWilliams

In developing countries, you take Brazil, you take Colombia, you take any of the Latin American countries, they don't underperform because of a lack of entrepreneurs or for a lack of investment or a lack of people. What makes them underperform is there's no joined-up platform off which the private sector can operate. So, for example, there's no railway system. Now, why does a railway system work?

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1856.996 - 1868.107 David McWilliams

Because a railway system creates hubs hubs of capital, hubs of people. It allows people to travel around, right? So what you have to understand is the railway system can't really make profit.

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1868.387 - 1891.409 David McWilliams

The point of it, for the Chinese, it's not to make profit out of those companies, but it's that that railway system integrates the Chinese society in such a way to allow the private sector in certain cities to perform its thing. So in a way, the state does a lot of the heavy lifting, right, from the... private sector allowing us to do so.

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1891.67 - 1900.106 David McWilliams

But the concept is a centrally planned economy that is capitalist. So whereas when we hear a centrally planned economy, we think Stalinism.

1900.126 - 1900.587 John Davis

Yeah.

1900.607 - 1909.844 David McWilliams

We think no profit motivation. What they are is in the hold of a second. We are a centrally planned economy, but we are so impressive because the profit motive is front and central.

1910.245 - 1910.385

Mm-hmm.

1910.365 - 1924.086 David McWilliams

This is creating a massive, massive Chinese middle class. And this Chinese middle class is getting richer, quicker than any middle class ever in the history of humanity. Yeah. But don't fuck with the Politburo.

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