Chapter 1: Is there a real ceasefire in the Iran crisis?
Is this a ceasefire or not? Like, what is going on here?
I mean, right now, at this particular moment, we're in a place where the Trump administration is saying one thing. They're saying that, you know, we didn't agree to this 10-point plan, even though Trump previously said that that was a good basis. And Iran is saying, no, we actually want Lebanon to be part of this ceasefire. And Netanyahu is pretty much jeopardizing the entire deal.
And up to about a minute ago, the latest update is that Netanyahu is now saying that they want to start direct talks with Lebanon for disarming Hezbollah. But, you know, we're going to see how that goes. Every time this happens, Israel continues striking. So at the moment, the ceasefire is tenuous.
Chapter 2: What are the conflicting positions of the Trump administration and Iran?
It's very, you know, we really don't know exactly where this is going to go. Yeah, great. You have the tweet up there. But it's a rapid moving situation. And, you know, the big picture is we are in a worse place than we were before the war started. Iran now has control over the Strait. It does.
It has. J.D. Vance, who was supposed to be helping with these negotiations, J.D.
Chapter 3: How is Netanyahu influencing the ceasefire negotiations?
Vance is saying that Lebanon was never part of these negotiations. So where is the miscommunication, I guess? And who's doing the negotiating? Because Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are heading over or over in the region, and they're going to go over to negotiate, but they have negotiating experience. So is this like the Keystone Cops? What is going on here?
It's just, there are a bunch of incompetent, you know, overreachers here. And that's what we see happening. I mean, when you look at Vance going this Saturday with Witkoff and Kushner, I mean, right now, Iran did indicate they want to talk to Vance. So I guess you could look at that as maybe semi-positive. The miscommunication here is, I think this is exactly what happened.
Iran previously put out this 10-point plan, and then Trump, just needing some kind of off-ramp, agreed to one of their previous...
uh one of their previous you know demands right it wasn't even their most recent one it was a 10 point plan and then iran just like we're just going to take this as a propaganda win win right there was no not really much direct communication clearly because they clearly misunderstood whether or not lebanon was part of this ceasefire uh the 10 point plan that trump said was a good starting point demands that the u.s leaves the middle east entirely and leaves all their military like there's very clear things in that 10 point plan
That would not happen. So the communication has broken down. And then now, I guess we're hoping to restart. I would consider Saturday when they go to Pakistan, that would actually be the true start of direct talks because neither of them have any idea what is going on. It's like basically been two regimes that are selling propaganda wins to their various bases. That's what's happened so far.
I don't.
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Chapter 4: What role does J.D. Vance play in the negotiations?
I don't administration can sell any of this as a win for anybody because I mean, clearly it's, you know, it's obviously it's not a win. I don't know how they can do that. Donald Trump seems to be, he's like, I'm, I'm out. My name is Wes. I ain't in this mess. He's not, he's barely, he doesn't even want to talk about it. And I'm wondering if this is the JD Vance setup, right?
Where they say, okay, now you go in and fix it. They're going to have him you know, and some, I guess, show that, okay, he is presidential material. I don't think J.D. Vance can fix this because he's just a, you know, like a tap dancing salesman, right? A fast talking, slick, you know, salesman.
And I don't, you know, negotiating with these folks or it takes someone with some foreign policy experience, which was, you think about it, the presidency is about Being able to make decisions, but also having people around you, a cabinet that can give you great advice, a cabinet of rivals, so to speak, as some presidents like to have.
And that was the reason that Barack Obama chose Joe Biden is because of Joe Biden's foreign policy expertise and experience. There's no one on this team who has any of that. And so not only are they in trouble, we're in trouble.
Exactly. And as we saw in reporting this week from Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman, throughout the deliberations, we see the breakdown in experience here in the deliberations of heading into the war. We had General Kane specifically say after Netanyahu's presentation February 11th that... Iran was overselling. Iran or Israel was overselling.
Like, Bibi straight up told Trump that the war would be done quick, that they wouldn't even have the... Iran wouldn't even have the military resources to... Yes, thank you for pulling that up.
Everyone has to read this piece because in it, it exposes that Netanyahu directly lied to Trump about how quickly this war would resolve, that Iran's military capabilities would be wiped out, they wouldn't be able to even exert control over the Strait of Hormuz. And then... We saw in this piece, you'll see even Rubio, Rubio called it BS that the regime change part of Netanyahu's plan would work.
And General Kane basically said that this is what Israel does. They oversell. And then Trump did it anyway because all he cared about was part one and two of the plan, the decapitation strike and the military capability erosion.
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Chapter 5: How did miscommunication affect the ceasefire agreement?
He didn't even think about part three and four. And that's why we're here right now. And Iran is trying to exert every piece of leverage they have because now the primary objective of these negotiations is to solve a problem that was caused by the war itself, which is reopening the Strait of Hormuz. So that's just kind of the big picture.
We want to they want to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which was open before they started the war. And... That's what I'm saying, man. I'm not joking. I've been trying to make sense of this, and I cannot... I don't understand what sense is to be made of it. The Strait of Hormuz was open. Then we went into a war, and they closed it. And basically, ships were going in and out.
We had a deal on the table. They were negotiating. Gas prices were low. And now...
gas prices are high iran is in control of the strait of hormuz more so than they were even before they have more autonomy they're making more money off of the oil they're going to make more money they're going to make more than enough money to build their country back and to get some new weapons and yet americans are hurting and um there's no regime change like what So what happened?
What happened is Trump put us in a much worse position, the world, frankly, than we were in the days right before this war. That is what has happened here. We've achieved nothing of substance other than a more extreme Iran.
We have basically in Iran with the son of the previous supreme leader, who's significantly more extreme, likely does not have the same commitment to not pursuing nuclear weapons like we talked about. The previous leader had that fatwa on nuclear weapons, and he had agreed to the JCPOA. We got a more extreme Iran. We've got an Iran who's now trying to exert more leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.
And now, like you said, they're tolling it. A Wall Street Journal reporting they want to take crypto payments. Through the Strait, that's how they want to monetize it, through crypto. So they're going to try to maximize their pressure over the Strait of Hormuz, maximize their leverage. So now we basically, we're enriching Iran. We have a more extreme Iran.
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Chapter 6: What are the implications of Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz?
And then now we're in a place where we just have a destabilized Lebanon now as a part of, as the outcome. And then they're going to, Hezbollah's going to try to exert more terrorism throughout the world. It's like, I can't name a single thing about this. That is better than the day before this war started.
I mean, can you think of anything that's like, no, no, this is, this is a catastrophe, but they keep spinning it as if it is not. And Fox news keeps going that, you know, Iran blinked and, and there, and everyone's portraying it as ceasefire is tenuous over and ceasefire holding for now. It's not, there is no ceasefire. They're still firing on each other.
As long as they are firing rockets and bombs or missiles or whatever it is that they're doing, as long as they're doing that, then there's no ceasefire. And then they're saying the Strait of Hormuz is open. The Strait of Hormuz is not open. You have ships that are sitting off of the coast of Amman. They're not going through the straits.
You may have had like four ships or six or whatever, when it's usually, what is it, like 149 or 150 that go through a day? Yeah. That's not open. No. So... Who's buying this bullshit? I guess someone said to me yesterday, Ahmed, someone who's very informed said that they were talking to people or they saw someone doing like, you know, interviewing people.
And they said, thank God Donald Trump got the Strait of Hormuz open. It hasn't been open for 47 years. And it's like, wait, what? You're sitting there watching Fox News all day and that's what you believe?
Yeah, they're trying like it's the desperation. They're trying to sell it. And like you can tell how bad it's going by the fact some of MAGA, some of MAGA new media can't find a way to sell it to the point where they're going hard against this. Like Megyn Kelly, I'm sure you saw the clip where she was begging for Trump to just be a normal human being. You know, we got Marjorie Taylor Greene.
Could you imagine, man, like being told in 2024 that Alex Jones, Marjorie Taylor Greene and Candace Owens would be calling for Trump to be removed by the 25th Amendment? They sound like 2017 resistance members talking about the 25th Amendment.
Yeah, but I call bullshit on Megyn Kelly. Pick a side because she said just I think the day before or maybe a day or two before that she would vote for a Republican even if they dropped a nuke. over a Democrat. And it's like, and then she's going to come on the next day and say, Oh my gosh, you know, Donald Trump stopped this. You're crazy.
So it's like, come on lady, you'll do anything for a click. Anything. I think you're right. Career.
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Chapter 7: What evidence suggests the ceasefire is failing?
by living within the volatility of this guy's mind. He just can't sit still, and we're all dealing with the consequences of it. So I think even if this ceasefire ends up turning out to come to some agreement, he has left the world in a more dangerous place than February 27th, the day before the strikes.
You know? Drop a nuke and I'd still vote Republican.
you can't make it up what do you what do you think like do you think that this is gonna i mean i know we see the people in media mega media trying to position or whatever but when you see when you think about the average republican voter do you think that this war the sense of betrayal is going to carry on beyond this moment even if there's some kind of outcome where the bombing stops do you think that people are going to remember this heading into 20 26 and 28 and beyond
Look, I think you're going to have a group of people who are going to believe this, but I think that that is dwindling day by day. I think, honestly, I think MAGA is cooked. I think MAGA is cooked. And with each passing moment, I think it is a confirmation of that. Of each passing incompetent moment of now J.D. Vance is going to step in and all he can do is lie.
And, you know, he's like, again, like a fast talker.
Yeah.
And, you know, when the MAGA, the people who carry the water for the media and especially the, even everything is done on the margins right now, right? And so if you have these people who are in streaming, the bro podcasters of the Manosphere, the Candace Owens of the world, all of those folks, if they are
saying that Donald Trump is cooked in the 25th Amendment and they're tired of his antics, that's going to carry over to November. And because those people cannot be bought They can't be controlled by corporate media because they're not in corporate media. The only people hanging on is Fox because Fox wants to be in good stead with the president.
And they know that there's a big group of people who are going to sit in front of the television all day and they're going to suck it up because you support Donald Trump and you support the Republican causes. If they start talking shit about Republicans or Donald Trump, the Fox is going to go, what the fuck? They're not going, they're not hard enough. Right.
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Chapter 8: How does this crisis affect the future of U.S.-Iran relations?
Step two was road military capability. And then step three and four of the plan, which Rubio, Radcliffe and others in the administration called farcical, was Netanyahu promising that in step three, the people would rise up and there would be successful regime change and the Kurds would come through and immediately arm themselves and Trump's own administration would
members, his officials, told him that that was farcical. And Don, I think you're muted. I can't hear you at the moment.
No, I was doing something else.
Oh, perfect. Yeah, so Trump was told basically by his own administration officials after Netanyahu's presentation that this is something Israel does. They oversell. They overpromise. And Rubio called step three and four of the plan, which was regime change, to be farcical and B.S., So Trump knew this, he was told this, and he proceeded anyway.
And that is the story of this administration, a guy who runs on gut instinct, who does not care about facts, who does not have the wherewithal or the thoughtfulness to be president, and just doesn't attach consequences to his actions. And now we're in this place where the world is more dangerous. Straight-up Hormuz is being told by Iran, and we see, and they still have enriched uranium.
So what are we doing here?
And Republicans who, you know, like you said, we had the magosphere sort of fringe. I don't even know if it's fringe media anymore. I think that they may have more influence than corporate media. You know, the Candace Owens, Megyn Kelly, Tucker Carlson's of the world, they're going after Donald Trump.
But yet and still, Republicans, as we are speaking now, the breaking news is that they blocked this war resolutions bill recently. going through, which means they halted the efforts for, uh, to stop Donald Trump's war in Iran. So they are in lockstep with them.
And so I don't know why, I don't know why JD Vance is, I guess he's leaking, but that's a, uh, that's a dangerous place because if Trump finds out and he alerts the, uh, the MAGA strongholds, that's political suicide for J.D. Vance. That's what I said.
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