Ceasefire alarm: Iran and Israel trade strikes
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Why did Iran launch ballistic missiles at Israel and what triggered the exchange?
The Economist.
Hello and welcome to the intelligence from The Economist. I'm Rosie Blore.
And I'm Jason Palmer.
Today on the show are BYD Cars Losing Ground and the Rise and Rise of Companion Podcasts.
But first
Two months after a ceasefire took effect between America and Iran. Missiles overnight. Iran struck northern Israel after attacks this weekend on Iran's proxies in Beirut. Israel responded with fighter jets and force, striking multiple sites across Iran. This morning a frail ceasefire looks even frailer.
This is the most significant violation of the ceasefire that we've seen since it took effect two months ago.
Greg Karlstrom, our Middle East correspondent, is currently in Riyadh.
It's the first time that Israel has gone back to carrying out attacks in Iran. It's the first time Iran has been firing missiles at Israel. And I think there's a risk here if the Americans don't intervene and pump the brakes in the coming hours that this could turn into a more significant resumption of the war.
So Greg, just fill in for us exactly what happened overnight.
So first we saw Iran launch several waves of ballistic missiles at Israel. This was late on Sunday night local time, which the Iranians said they were doing in response to Israeli airstrikes in the Lebanese capital earlier in the weekend. Israel said those missiles were intercepted. There were no reports of significant damage on the ground. Then a few hours later, we saw Israel launch A wave of airstrikes in Iran. It attacked missile sites there, also a petrochemical plant and other targets in Iran. And then as we're speaking now on Monday morning, there are reports just coming out of Israel that sirens are going off and that there are more waves of incoming Iranian missiles aimed at both the north and the center of the country.
There was an attack as well by the Houthis in Yemen, the Iranian Baked Shia militia there, which carried out an attack on Israel.
So just give us the context for these Iranian missiles. Was it all because of the Israeli strikes on Beirut over the weekend?
For two months since the ceasefire took hold in April, there's been a dispute between America, Israel, and Iran over whether that ceasefire would also include Lebanon, a a cessation of Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Uh so if you go back to the first days of the deal in early April, once it was agreed, Iran said it wouldn't abide by the ceasefire unless Donald Trump Restrained the Israelis in Lebanon. And he eventually did that. He didn't tell them to halt their attacks entirely, but he ordered Israel to halt the geographic scope and the intensity of its airstrikes in Lebanon. Now, obviously, Israel has always rejected this linkage.
How did Israel respond to the Iranian missile strikes and what targets were hit?
It understandably is unhappy about the idea that Iran could impose conditions on its war in Lebanon. And so So Binymin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister, has always insisted that these two conflicts should be separate. And what we've seen over the past few weeks has been Israel intensifying its combat in Lebanon. Hezbollah has continued to fire at northern Israel. It has been using, in some cases, fiber optic drones that Israel doesn't have a reliable way to defend against. to kill Israeli troops both in Lebanon and in northern Israel and to attack Civilian targets in northern Israel. And this has put a lot of pressure on Netanyahu's government. And so we've seen him expand the scope of airstrikes in Lebanon, including the strike in Beirut, the capital, over the weekend.
He's ordered Israeli troops further into Lebanon. And so for Iran now, the message that they are sending is that they insist on these two conflicts being linked. And if Israel does continue to to carry out these attacks in Lebanon, it has threatened to carry out further attacks on Israel.
And Israel in turn is now sending quite a clear message to Iran, right?
It is. And I think particularly this strike on a petrochemical plant is significant for two reasons. One is the impact that it will have on the Iranian energy sector, the Iranian economy. And then there's also the question of how Iran views that attack and how they will retaliate for it.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
Why did Iran launch ballistic missiles at Israel and what triggered the exchange?
0:03–3:38
2
How did Israel respond to the Iranian missile strikes and what targets were hit?
3:38–6:35
3
What role does the United States – and specifically Donald Trump – play in the cease‑fire talks?
6:35–10:52
4
Why is the cease‑fire between the US and Iran now considered fragile?
10:52–15:21
5
How is BYD’s vertical‑integration strategy affecting its position in the EV market?
15:21–20:26
6
What new technologies is BYD showcasing, and can they keep up with tech‑focused rivals?
20:26–23:15