Deal or ordeal: Trump’s bad options in Cuba
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Why is the United States threatening new military action against Cuba?
The Economist. Hello and welcome to the Intelligence from The Economist. I'm Jason Palmer. Today on the show, meeting the contenders in Colombia's highly polarized election, and our World Cup team profiles continue with Mexico.
First up though.
If you supported or voted for Donald Trump because of his promise not to get America involved in new foreign entanglements, boy are you disappointed. In January, American Special Forces snatched President Nicolás Maduro from his hideout in Venezuela. That brought Cuba's biggest oil supplier under American control. Mr Trump thought that would at last bring Cuba to heel.
Looks like it's going down. It's going down for the count. You ever watch it fight? They go down for the count. And Cuba looks like it's going down.
Months later, the only thing that's changed is the increased misery for everyday Cubans. No capitulation of the regime, no popular uprising, no deal to end that misery. So now come the threats of military action. On Tuesday, Cuba's foreign minister Bruno Rodriguez Parrilla did not hold back at the UN's Security Council. He said America's actions amounted to war crimes. He said military aggression would result in a bloodbath. He said that at a moment that we hope will never happen, the people of Cuba will fight to the last consequence. But things simply cannot continue as they are now.
Donald Trump is right to want to change Cuba.
Sarah Burke is our Bureau Chief for Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean.
The communist rulers of the island are really vile, they have impoverished their people and locked up anyone who disagrees with them. But so far Trump's methods for inducing change have achieved very limited success.
And by way of recap, we've certainly talked a lot on the show about how miserable the conditions in Cuba have become over the years. Is it much the same as when last we spoke?
Every time I've gone to Cuba, it just gets worse. This is a country that for sixty-seven years has suffered from imprisonment of any political opponents, squashing of free speech, and just a total degradation of the economy that has immiserated the people.
How have Trump’s oil‑cut and diplomatic pressure affected everyday Cubans?
Ordinary Cubans who work and have what should be decent jobs as teachers or government workers really can't even afford basic food eggs, beans, rice. They have no electricity, it's getting getting hotser and hotser. So in that sense, Jason, since I was last there earlier this year, it has got worse. And the elites, meanwhile, are pretty insulated from this. They drive around in their nice cars and go to nice restaurants. And so the inequality is also growing.
And you said Mr. Trump's methods for trying to change any all of this have not worked so far. What's been on the menu up until now?
The menu has mainly been sticks rather than carrots. So from January he choked off Cuba's oil supply, starting with cutting off Venezuelas once he'd done away with Nicolas Maduro, and then also forcing other countries to stop sending oil as well. And that's mainly the stick they've used, as well as more recently threatening some form of military action. The Cubans are negotiating and talking to the Americans, and we have seen a few political prisoners released and some Offerings in terms of economic opening and reforms, such as letting Cubans abroad invest. But these are pretty small gains and definitely far less than Trump and his Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is Cuban American himself, want to see.
And indeed, less than most Cubans would want to see. There's no sign really yet that there's going to be any wholesale change of the type that would satisfy. people or indeed any change of the regime itself.
So do you think the spirit of what's happened so far is an attempt to foment popular protest?
Definitely at the start it seemed to be that. It seemed to be look, let's make the situation sort of unbearable, which many Cubans say is just wholly cruel. They're the ones suffering from the oil embargo far, far more than the ruling class. And the idea was that maybe they would come out to the streets and they would overthrow the regime a bit like Donald Trump called for to happen in Iran as well.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why is the United States threatening new military action against Cuba?
0:03–2:44
2
How have Trump’s oil‑cut and diplomatic pressure affected everyday Cubans?
2:44–6:22
3
What are the three military options the Trump administration is considering for Cuba?
6:22–10:26
4
Why would a decapitation strike in Cuba differ from the operation in Venezuela?
10:26–14:00
5
How realistic is a negotiated economic opening and political transition in Cuba?
14:00–18:43
6
What are the key differences between Colombia’s three presidential candidates?
18:43–20:52
7
How is Mexico preparing for its role as host of the 2026 World Cup?
20:52–21:43
8
What are the main challenges facing Mexico’s national team ahead of the tournament?
21:43–22:20