Duo’s lingo: what to watch for in Trump-Xi summit
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What are the main expectations for the Trump‑Xi summit and why is it so crucial?
The Economist. Hello and welcome to the intelligence from The Economist. I'm Jason Palmer.
And I'm Rosie Blore.
Today on the show, the latest in the century long Coke versus Pepsi battle and a curtain raiser on a particularly fraught Venice Biennale.
First up though.
Tomorrow, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will meet in Beijing. The two-day summit, originally scheduled for April, was delayed by the Iran War. Even so, both sides seem determined to make it happen. The meeting is the first of four between Trump and she planned for this year, a sign of the urgency both sides feel about calming this consequential, but often tempestuous relationship.
The Chinese American relationship was in a really, really bad way. Last year they were on the brink of a massive economic conflict that really threatened a global recession.
Simon Rubinovich is our Beijing bureau chief and Chao Guang columnist.
They've walked back from the ledge of that, and the question for this year is are they gonna be able to build something bigger, more constructive, and more sustainable out of that?
So just fill in a bit more of that context for us for a minute, Simon. Why were US-China relations quite so bad?
So China and America have been in an on-again, off again trade war, going back to Donald Trump's first term. And at the start of 2025, things were looking really quite dangerous. We got to a point where both countries had tariffs of more than a hundred percent on each other, effectively threatening a stop to all bilateral trade. At the same time, China was fighting back with much more force than it had ever done previously. It put export controls on rare earths, which were threatening to bring not just American industry but global industry to a total halt. That caught Donald Trump's attention. And that's why by the end of last year, they had agreed to a truce. It's a truce that only runs until November of this year.
And so we're now at the point where diplomacy is once again underway. They're trying to come to some kind of a more lasting trade deal, economic arrangement that will avoid the kinds of problems that we saw last year.
So if we've got to the point where diplomacy is key, what can we actually expect from this summit?
Well, depending on when you would have asked me that question, the answer would have been different. A few months ago, people had quite high expectations. They thought that maybe there was going to be some big bilateral investment agreements, that maybe there was going to be some way to strike a quote unquote grand bargain between China and America.
How did the trade war reach 100 % tariffs and what does the upcoming summit aim to fix?
At this point, nobody really expects that grand bargain. I think the reality has set in, which is that there is just a lot of meeting. Suspicion. So that's why I think expectations are are quite low. And basically, what they're trying to avoid is having a total breakdown.
So what might they actually achieve now then?
So the focus of the summit really is going to be on trade, on economic issues. The Chinese are very likely to announce some big purchase agreements. They've talked about buying the three B's from America: Boeings, beef, and beans, soybeans. On the American side, they want trade to be more balanced. Donald Trump's goal, one of his big goals, is to reduce America's trade deficit. So there's talk about creating something called a board of trade. Which would basically look at what goods can flow between the countries with relatively low tariffs. Can they somehow bring about managed trade to engineer a more balanced trading relationship to bring down the Chinese trade surplus? By the way, at the start of the trade war in 2018, China ran a roughly $450 billion trade surplus against America.
These days, it's about About $200 billion. So as far as Donald Trump is concerned, his tactics have been somewhat successful to date.
Simon, the focus may be on trade, but all sorts of other topics are likely to loom. What else can we expect?
Well, the big one that the Chinese side are pushing is to bring Taiwan into discussion. So, from China's perspective, they've made it clear to the Americans that the more that America gives on Taiwan, the more that China is willing to give on the economy.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What are the main expectations for the Trump‑Xi summit and why is it so crucial?
0:03–3:12
2
How did the trade war reach 100 % tariffs and what does the upcoming summit aim to fix?
3:12–6:34
3
What will the summit mean for the contentious Taiwan issue and U.S. arms sales?
6:34–10:25
4
How might China use the summit to influence Iran, Russia‑Ukraine and other security hotspots?
10:25–14:19
5
What are the realistic outcomes the hosts see for the summit’s economic agenda?
14:19–19:17
6
Why is Pepsi losing market share to Coca‑Cola and how is the rivalry changing?
19:17–20:51
7
What strategic moves is Pepsi taking to revive its business and regain the second‑place spot?
20:51–21:21
8
How is the 2026 Venice Biennale reflecting geopolitical tensions and what controversies are emerging?
21:21–21:23