Gulf-co-operation counsel: what next for the region

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The Intelligence from The Economist 24 min 5 speakers 8 chapters transcribed 15 days ago
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?

Jason Palmer 0:03
The Economist.
Jason Palmer 0:10
Hello and welcome to the intelligence from The Economist. I'm Jason Palmer.
Rosie Bloor 0:14
And I'm Rosie Blor.
Jason Palmer 0:19
Today on the show, our America at 250 series concludes and how plants use the sound around them.
Unknown 0:34
First up though.

Why did Iran’s cease‑fire violation raise concerns for Gulf security?

Unknown 0:40
Okay, how about a couple of quick questions and you said that Iran violated the ceasefire. Will they face any consequences? You'll find out.
Jason Palmer 0:53
You'd hardly have known over the weekend there was an Iran-war ceasefire in place.
Unknown 0:59
I don't like the fact that they took a shot.
Jason Palmer 1:03
Day after day, attacks on and from Iran.
Unknown 1:07
Attacks on US allies Bahrain and Kuwait in apparent response to US Central Command confirming airstrikes on Iran overnight.
Jason Palmer 1:14
It's also hard to figure out the state of negotiations between America and Iran. American officials said there would be more high-level talks in Qatar this week. Iran's deputy foreign minister said yesterday that there wouldn't. In short, it's all still uncertain, and that uncertainty for Iran and for all its regional neighbors may be the most potent and lasting harm of this war.
Gregg Carlstrom 1:37
The Gulf states aren't total strangers to conflict. They went through the tanker wars in the nineteen eighties, they endured Saddam Hussein's occupation of Kuwait in nineteen ninety.
Jason Palmer 1:49
Greg Carlstrom is a Middle East correspondent for The Economist.
Gregg Carlstrom 1:52
And yet, I think in many ways you could argue this is the greatest shock the Gulf has ever been through, even though the consequences of this war might seem less visible than previous ones.
Jason Palmer 2:05
The consequences have, on the basis of our conversations over those four months alone, seemed pretty visible, Greg.
Gregg Carlstrom 2:12
Yes and no, you've had thousands of Iranian missile and drone strikes on Gulf states, and they've caused tens of billions of dollars in damage. But mercifully they killed very few people. Compare that to the invasion of Kuwait, for example, when hundreds of Kuwaiti civilians were killed. So we haven't seen anything like that this year. And despite the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, even though you could bring almost nothing through. For four months. We haven't seen shortages in the Gulf. Countries in this region have spent huge amounts of money to keep shelves stocked and to keep their economies somewhat functioning.

How have past Gulf conflicts shaped the region’s response to the Iran‑U.S. war?

Gregg Carlstrom 2:48
So they've managed to blunt the most direct impact of the war for their residents. But this war comes at a time when the Gulf is a very different place than it was in the 1980s or the 90s. Back then, it really was the The world's petrol station. Dubai was a sort of sleepy trading town on the coast. It wasn't yet a household name. Saudi Arabia was a dour place that didn't even offer tourist visas. Today it's something much different. It's a huge player in everything from finance to logistics. Some of the world's biggest airlines are in this region, some of the world's biggest sovereign wealth funds. You have millions of expats who have moved here. Over the years, drawn by low taxes and stability and the opportunity to start businesses and settle down.
Gregg Carlstrom 3:34
It's a very different region than it was, but all of that growth, all of that change has depended on the perception that the Gulf is stable and secure, and Iran has damaged that perception.
Jason Palmer 3:46
By which you mean sort of permanently damage that perception.
Gregg Carlstrom 3:49
It depends on how the war ends, if the war has ended, and that depends a lot on Donald Trump. I hate that that is the answer to almost every question in global politics these days, but it's really true here. If America and Iran can get to a lasting deal that ends their state of hostilities, then I think the Gulf could move on from this quite quickly. That perception of risk in the region will dissipate. On the other hand, if the deal falls apart and we see a return to fighting between America and Iran, we could see even more destructive Iranian attacks in the Gulf, and obviously that would have far worse consequences. When I talk to people in the region, though, the expectation that most have is that we won't see either of those outcomes.
Gregg Carlstrom 4:32
We will see this interim deal remain in effect, but no broader transformative piece.

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