Hard cedar: Lebanon seeks Trump’s help
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What is the context of Lebanon’s presidential visit to the White House?
The Economist.
Hello and welcome to the intelligence from The Economist. I'm Rosie Blore.
And I'm Jason Palmer.
Today on the show, could Red Bull have its wings clipped? And Trophy Wives may finally be going out of fashion?
But first
Today, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun will visit the White House. It's the first such presidential summit in nearly two decades, and it comes at a challenging moment for Lebanon. The country faces a deep financial crisis, an ongoing power struggle against Hezbollah, the Iran-Bakshia militia, and a conflict between Hezbollah and Israel that's wreaked enormous damage and continues to wreck lives across the whole country. Lebanon certainly needs help, but what will it get?
The past seven years have been by far Lebanon's worst period since the end of its civil war in nineteen ninety.
How does the Hezbollah‑Israel conflict shape Lebanon’s political crisis?
Greg Carlstrom is a Middle East correspondent.
It's been through one of the worst financial crises in modern history, an enormous explosion, and almost three years of war with Israel, just to name a few. And it endured most of that without even having a proper government in place. Now it finally has one. There's a new president and a new prime minister, and they are trying to enlist help from Donald Trump and from other allies around the world to get Lebanon back. Back on its feet.
Greg, before we get to the details, why is Lebanon so important?
I think you can make a couple of arguments. One is geopolitical. If things go well in Lebanon, you can imagine it's an enormous blow to Iran's influence in the region. It's already lost influence in Syria with the fall of the Assad regime. If it no longer had Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Shia militia in Lebanon as a heavily armed cat's paw, then its clout in the region would be diminished further. Conversely. If things don't go well in Lebanon, the risks include more war with Israel, an emboldened Iran, perhaps internal conflict and a migration crisis. So that's one piece of it. And then you can also make an argument around Lebanon itself. This is a diverse country that churns out lots of well educated, entrepreneurial, talented people, but it ends up exporting most.
of that human capital because Lebanon itself is so dysfunctional and corrupt that most people can't make a decent living there. So I think people should also want it to succeed on its own merits. It could be a very important business hub for the entire region.
You mentioned dysfunction there. Lebanon for a while lacks a proper government. Who was in charge during that time?
In effect, no one. If you go back to late 2019 when the economic crisis started and there were mass anti-government protests, Saad Hariri, who was the prime minister at the time, resigned but stayed on in a caretaker capacity. And then he was followed by two additional caretaker prime ministers. So there was no empowered PM, no empowered cabinet that could take decisions. And then you had a stretch of more More than two years where the presidential palace was vacant, which is not uncommon in Lebanon. The president is selected by parliament, and often MPs can't agree on a president, and so you end up with a vacancy. But this was one of the longest in Lebanon's history. The vacuum finally ended at the beginning of last year under very strong international pressure.
Parliament chose Joseph.
Why is Lebanon’s economic collapse a barrier to reconstruction?
If Aon, the former army chief as president, and then shortly afterwards, Noaf Salem, a former head of the International Court of Justice, was named as the country's new prime minister. They look like an odd pairing. Aun is this former soldier who spent his whole life in the army. Salem is bookish. He's an academic and a diplomat. He's been outside of Lebanon for most of his life. He was also the country's ambassador to the UN at one point. So they're both political outsiders in a country where politics has long been dominated by the same set of ex-warlords who ran militias during the Civil War. They both promised to come in and tackle some of the country's longstanding problems, but they came in in a very difficult situation.
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
What is the context of Lebanon’s presidential visit to the White House?
0:03–1:28
2
How does the Hezbollah‑Israel conflict shape Lebanon’s political crisis?
1:28–4:07
3
Why is Lebanon’s economic collapse a barrier to reconstruction?
4:07–7:16
4
What reforms does the new Lebanese government need to unlock IMF support?
7:16–12:28
5
What three things is President Aoun asking Donald Trump for?
12:28–15:55
6
How has Red Bull built the world’s most powerful marketing machine?
15:55–20:18
7
What health concerns and regulatory actions are affecting energy‑drink sales?
20:18–22:08