In arms’ way: Gaza-deal sticking points
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What is the current situation in Gaza and why is Trump’s disarmament claim considered premature?
The Economist. Hello and welcome to the intelligence from The Economist. I'm Jason Poller.
Today on the show, the small business entrepreneurship boom in America and why radio remains so popular in Africa.
But first
Day after day, news from Gaza brings the same message. Israel is carrying out strikes and Palestinians are dying. Only the number changes. It's not what you might have expected if you took President Donald Trump's announcement from last Thursday at face value.
It's a great breakthrough. Nobody's ever thought that would nobody thought that would be possible to disarm Hamas. Uh that shows you how much uh success we're having with Iran.
Hamas would lay down its arms in Gaza, and Israeli forces would withdraw. As simple and as synchronized as that. Exactly what had been laid out by the Board of Peace that Mr Trump assembled in January. By yesterday, the board was doing the repetitive but necessary business of walking back a Trump promise.
Well, we know that there is an agreement between Hamas and and the Board of Peace, and between the Board of Peace and Israel, which is supposed to set out a timetable for both the disarmament of Hamas and the withdrawal. Of Israeli troops from Gaza. Anshul Pfeffer is our Israel correspondent. In reality, both sides seem deeply skeptical and are basically waiting for the other side to screw it up.
And before we get into what it is that would screw it up, let's talk about what things are like in Gaza at the moment. What is the situation on the ground?
Roughly two point one million air Gazans are now clustered in around a third of the Gaza Strip uh territory. Around three quarters of them are displaced. That means that either their previous homes are in the area under Israeli occupation or their homes have been destroyed and they're in temporary housing. In the nearly ten months since the ceasefire what was officially a ceasefire was announced, over twelve hundred have been killed in Gaza by Israeli strikes.
And who is in control? What does w uh who's who's actually running things and how much of things are they running?
Well currently there are three forces inside Gaza.
What are the main sticking points in the Hamas‑Israel disarmament and withdrawal timeline?
There's the Israeli army, which occupies about two thirds of the territory. The remaining thirds are is under Hamas control and even though Hamas said a couple of months ago that uh they're relinquishing control of civilian affairs in Gaza. From all accounts they're still very much uh in control of what's happening there in the third of the territory that they rule. There are also uh a number of militias or gangs uh sponsored by Israel which are in charge of uh of some small enclaves and that makes the whole line between Israel and the rest of Gaza Quite uh blurred, and that's one of the things that they're trying to work out now is where exactly Israel. will withdraw to in the interim period.
And as you say, it's ten months on since a deal that was to end the conflict doesn't sound as if it's ended.
Well, when Donald Trump announced uh his twenty point plan ten months ago, it was already clear then that while those points did in principle lead to an end to the war, to the withdrawal of the Israelis, to disarmament of Hamas and to the reconstruction of Gaza. There were a lot of details that needed to be filled in. It wasn't at all clear who would be implementing all this. And it wasn't at all clear whether Hamas or Israel would actually agree to it, even though they agreed in principle to the twenty point plan.
It's something we've talked a lot on the show about the the nature of the deals that the Trump administration strikes being sort of sketchy at best. But what we've heard most recently is that Hamas has agreed to disarm. It's not as simple as that though, is it?
No, it's not as simple as that. For a start It isn't quite clear what the si sequencing of this will be. How Which arms does Hamas divest themselves of? Who will take over those arms. Will they be stored in Gaza? Will they be destroyed? Will they be taken elsewhere? Hamas has since pushed back and said that any arms that it gives up will not be taken out of Gaza and will only be kept in storage by a Palestinian administration there in Gaza.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the current situation in Gaza and why is Trump’s disarmament claim considered premature?
0:03–2:50
2
What are the main sticking points in the Hamas‑Israel disarmament and withdrawal timeline?
2:50–5:08
3
How are the three competing forces inside Gaza influencing the peace negotiations?
5:08–7:16
4
What role does the Board of Peace play and why is its timetable still unclear?
7:16–10:01
5
Why is the small‑business boom in the United States continuing after the pandemic?
10:01–12:29
6
How is AI acting as a tailwind for new entrepreneurs and changing business dynamics?
12:29–14:43
7
Why does radio remain hugely popular across Africa despite the rise of smartphones and social media?
14:43–18:00
8
How are African broadcasters adapting to digital pressures while expanding the radio landscape?
18:00–21:00