Missing peace: will Israel imperil Iran deal?
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How do the new US‑Iran peace talks address the Israel‑Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon?
The Economist.
Hello and welcome to the intelligence from the Economist. I'm Rosie Blore.
And I'm Jason Palmer.
Today on the show, Awapa El Nino and why Japan's popular princess will never take the throne.
First up though.
It's been four days since peace talks between America and Iran began. These came after the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding last week. In theory, the deal ends the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, unfreezes Iranian assets, and begins a 60-day period of negotiations over the future of Iran's uranium stockpile. At Iran's insistence, it also includes a commitment to a ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah, an Iran-backed Shia militia. The question now is whether that conflict could undermine the prospects of long term peace in the Middle East.
The village of Majdol Zun, seven kilometers north of Israel's border with Lebanon, is deserted.
Anchill Pfeffer is our Israel correspondent.
It's a Shia village. It has been empty now for a while and even though it was very dark there you could see that many of the buildings have been destroyed by Israeli airstrikes. There's no electricity, but there was light in an Israeli command post and in the underground location where we were taken.
I'm sure you say you were taken to an underground location. Just explain what it is that you saw where you went.
Run about thirty meters under the centre of the village. There's this long and very wide tunnel, which from what we were shown there was used as a factory or an assembly line for building killer drones. I've been in quite a few tunnels over the last two and a half years under Lebanon and under the Gaza Strip. I think this was certainly the widest. most well constructed tunnel I've seen in these wars so far. And from what we were shown there, just the piles and piles of dozens of sets of triangular wings, long cigar shaped fuselages and cylindrical explosive charges, it was clear that this place was being used to assemble kits of drones, dozens and dozens of them. which were then to be launched from rails in other parts of the village towards Israel.
According to Israeli intelligence back in Twenty four some of these drones hit Israeli bases, killing soldiers, and also hit Been a minutenows seaside villa as well.
Anshal, as you say you've been in a number of tunnels over the years, you've been on a number of embeds over the years with Israel Defence Forces. What's it like to be embedded with them?
What did Anshel Pfeffer see inside the abandoned village of Majdol Zun and its drone factory?
And embed with the idea if it's usually something that you're there in a couple of hours from your home or office and spend a few hours out in the field and then you're back again. So it's something very short. You come, you meet the unit, there's the issue of the convoy, and most of the convoys into the battlefields of Gaza or South Lebanon are relatively short, about twenty or thirty minutes, and you're in but that's sort of a tense moment when Your driving on rather unsecured roads. And usually they want to show you something. There's obviously a PR or propaganda purpose for these visits. In this case, they wanted to show this drone factory that they had discovered a few days earlier to make the point that Hezbollah, with Iran's support, still has a very significant military presence in southern Lebanon, which is a point that Israel's been trying to make again
It's the ceasefire that Donald Trump and the Iranians have been trying to impose on Israel in Lebanon.
So Israel's keen to show that its campaign in Lebanon against Hezbolla is justified. How does that play into apparent plans for peace in the Middle East?
So the backdrop to everything that's been happening in Lebanon and to our embed there is the talks that were due to start twenty four hours after our visit to Lebanon in the Switzerland between Iran and America reaching a a longer lasting ceasefire. And Lebanon Is in a way a sideshow to this. But for Israelis and for Lebanon, it's very much an immediate conflict. And Israel went into Lebanon back in March after Hezbollah began firing rockets in support of or in solidarity with Iran after the war began.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
How do the new US‑Iran peace talks address the Israel‑Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon?
0:03–3:22
2
What did Anshel Pfeffer see inside the abandoned village of Majdol Zun and its drone factory?
3:22–6:14
3
Can a cease‑fire in Lebanon be sustained while the US‑Iran agreement is being negotiated?
6:14–9:44
4
Why is Israel’s defence establishment reluctant to back the US‑Iran cease‑fire plan?
9:44–12:32
5
What makes this year’s El Niño a potential ‘Godzilla’ event?
12:32–15:19
6
How will a strong El Niño impact global food security and extreme weather?
15:19–18:06
7
What practical steps can governments and farmers take to prepare for El Niño‑related droughts and floods?
18:06–20:34
8
Why can Princess Aiko never inherit the Japanese throne and what reforms are being debated?
20:34–22:06