Omission accomplished: why the Iran-war cycle spins on
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
The Economist. Oh Hello and welcome to the intelligence from the economist. I'm Jason Palmer. Today on the show, how China is finding ways to put its AI all over the world. Remembering the woman who made it to eighty-two before fulfilling her astronaut dreams. First up though.
I hate to sound like a broken record. Remember those? But the way Donald Trump's war of choice is going in Iran forces my hand. The Strait of Hormuz is open, then it's closed. At the moment, Gulf states are trying to broker a temporary reopening. America launches strikes on Iran, Iran fires on regional American bases. Then they stop. And start again. Mr. Trump says he's working up a deal, Iran says no he's not, or rejects the advance. It's time to look at that Memorandum of Understanding or MOU from June. And how it's emblematic of a wider shortcoming of Trumpian deal making right across the region.
Under the terms of the MOU, America and Iran should be just about finished with negotiating a comprehensive deal that is going to end decades of conflict between their countries. Greg Carlstrom is a Middle East correspondent for
The Economist.
Instead, they've barely started talking about that deal, and they're still haggling over the Strait of Hormuz. And even if they can manage to find a solution around the Strait which looks unlikely at the moment, there are still large parts of this MOU which look all but defunct at this point. You say
barely started talking,
but they are talking? They are talking indirectly at the moment. Oman is passing messages between the two countries to try and find some arrangements related to the strait. So about a week ago you had an Omani delegation that visited Tehran for talks, and they're trying to propose a compromise in which there would be a formal truce between America and Iran, maybe lasting about 10 days. And then a plan to reopen the strait. Now, the Omani proposal is that all of the regional countries, Iran and Gulf states, would jointly manage Hormuz in a consortium. They wouldn't charge tolls on vessels using the strait, but they could charge voluntary fees for things like environmental services, similar to what happens in the Strait of Malacca in Southeast Asia, which in theory should be.
A face-saving compromise for everyone. Iran could say it's imposed a new arrangement on the strait, but America could also say it's rejected this plan for charging tolls. The problem is Iran has refused this proposal in the past, and sure enough, they've refused it again. On Tuesday, the deputy foreign minister of Iran said that any deal around Hormuz would have to give the Iranians complete control over the United States. Overall inbound traffic going through the strait into the Persian Gulf, which obviously is a non-starter for both the US and its Gulf allies. So diplomacy does not seem to be bearing any fruit. And we've had now renewed conflict after some days of an informal truce. Iran fired missiles at this American base in Jordan, and the U.S.
carried out a round of airstrikes in.
Later on. And all of this was just sort of prelude to the meet of the MOU, the biggest, grandest, longest term plans. What does that look like now?
Most of the deal is in bad shape at this point. I mean, you start with the first paragraph, which stated that America and Iran were permanently ending their war. That lasted all of three weeks before they went back to fighting. They are still arguing over another clause which relates to the Iranian funds that are frozen in banks overseas due to American sanctions. The Iranians had expected at least some of That money would be released immediately upon the deal's signing. The Americans said no, this money will not be released until we see that you're complying with the deal, and then it will be unlocked in phases. So the Iranians are frustrated. They feel as if America isn't living up to its end of the bargain there.
And then, as you say, there's this longer-term, bigger picture stuff that was meant to be negotiated. The deal spelled out. A 60-day period for a comprehensive agreement to address Iran's nuclear program, its demand for further reaching sanctions, relief, all of these long-standing issues between the two countries.
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:03–6:06
2
What is the current status of the Iran‑U.S. Memorandum of Understanding and why is it stalled?
6:06–10:17
3
How are Oman’s back‑channel talks trying to create a temporary truce in the Strait of Hormuz?
10:17–14:49
4
Why are the remaining clauses of the MOU—especially frozen Iranian funds—preventing a lasting deal?
14:49–20:13
5
What does the cycle of intermittent fighting and informal truces reveal about diplomacy in the Gulf?
20:13–25:33